NFL Picks of the Week

A horrible playoff predicting week, but it sets up great matchups for today.  Always trying to look at the positive, I suppose.  The four remaining teams are the top 4 seeds from the season, and the top 4 scoring offenses for the entire year: (Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Patriots - in that order), so that much of the analysis will center on things other than prolific scoring offenses.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Since we know that both teams can score practically at will, we are going to have to focus on the defenses.  The visiting Rams have the 19th ranked total defense and 20th in scoring defense, but 23rd in rushing defense.  As much as was written and said about the Rams using both Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to bash the Dallas Cowboys last week - both went for over 100 yards each - this could be a really big game for the other two-headed backfield which includes Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.  Plus, New Orleans' defense, which finished 14th in total and scoring defense, has a stout rush defense finishing 2nd in the NFL and not giving up 100 yards to any single running back this  year.  Sheldon Rankins being out does hurt that front line a bit, but look for the Saints to win this game the old-fashioned way, by running and stopping the run.

New Orleans Saints -165 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $165 to win $100)
If I think the Saints are going to cover the spread, I definitely have to with the money line on this one, as the -165 line does not scare me away, especially since the Rams are only +140.  No need to hedge my bets.  I will bet against the team with the worst quarterback remaining, one that played well most of the season,  but struggled down the stretch.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints UNDER 56 1/2
The unders have been hitting way more than they should this playoff season, and I am definitely taking the over in the next game, so I am going under here.  Plus, both defenses played very well last week, giving me hope for a repeat performance.  Perhaps something like 28-20 Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. New England Patriots
I do not buy into this whole "passing of the torch" game from Brady as the GOAT to Patrick Mahomes, as the up-and-comer defeats the all-time great.  Mostly because I feel that Dan Marino is the GOAT - man, nobody could fling it like him), but also because of matchups.  Everybody always says the Belichick schemes to take away the other persons best player on offense.  So, who does he plan against?  If he tries to take away Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcie is going to have a ton of favorable matchups, and despite the fact Rob Gronkowski is in this game, Kelcie is the best tight end in football right now.  If the tries to take away Kelcie, not even Stephon Gilmore can cover Tyreek Hill man-to-man for the entire game.  Yes, New England beat Kansas City 43-40 earlier this year, but that was in New England, in week 6.  The Chiefs did outscore New England 31-19 in the second half, meaning they caught on to what New England was trying to do defensively.   New England's crowning grace is that they do not rely upon any one, two or even three weapons offensively, which could expose Kansas City's 31st ranked defense, but my guess is not by enough in Kansas City.

Kansas City Cheifs -160 v. New England Patriots
For all of the reasons I stated in the previous pick.  Plus, Patrick Mahomes was the best quarterback this year, and Tom Brady wasn't even close to that level.  Yes experience counts, but so does talent, and right now Mahomes has lots of it himself, and around him.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 56 
I already feel that the Chiefs are going to score points, and Kansas City does have the 31st ranked defense in the NFL, so New England should score its share.  This number opened at 58 and dropped two full points to 56, which I suspect has more to do with the weather than anybody's faith in the defenses.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints have easily been the best overall team in the NFL for the entire season.  That has to count for something.

Last Week's Record:  4-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  135-134-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($525)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1510)

NFL Picks of the Week

Sadly, the Bears Super Bowl hopes went "doink, doink", but at least I had Philly plus the points.  Average week, but hopefully this gets easier, at least the way the weather is in half the games should help, but you never know.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, Kansas City is incredibly high scoring - this we all know.  But, Indianapolis was 5th in scoring this year as well and 10th in scoring defense.  Plus, it is snowing right now in Kansas City, as I just saw a picture from my friend Alison who is currently tailgating at the game (she is from Kansas City).  This game is going to require a stop, and the Colts defense will make enough to keep this close - especially since Kansas City's defense doesn't stop anybody (31st in the league at 405.5 yards per game).

Indianapolis Colts +180 (Bet $100 to win $180) at Kansas City Chiefs
If I think this is going to be close, I have a lot of faith in Adam Vinatieri in kicking field goals in inclement weather, even important ones.  Plus, I like the +180 odds better than the -220 to select the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Three unders hit last week, much to my dismay, but bad weather doesn't always mean low scoring.  Sometimes it means defensive backs slipping on coverage, or linebackers losing their footing when trying to wrap up a big back.  It can also mean fumbles in your own territory.  I look for the over to come in this game.

Dallas Cowboys +7 at the Los Angeles Rams
I don't think I am on the Dallas Cowboys are for real and legitimate Super Bowl contenders bandwagon, but I am on the Rams have not looked great for about a month now bandwagon, and the way the Cowboys defense has been playing, the Rams should not run away with this, even if they win.

Dallas Cowboys +270 at Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $270)
Honestly, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually going to win this game, all I know is that Amari Cooper has changed this offense dramatically - for the better - and Ezekial Elliott has been a monster with the safeties not able to play in the box to cover Cooper over the top.  Plus, the Rams are at -330, and I do not like that risk at all.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 1/2
Even with Dallas's defense playing extraordinarily well of late, would it shock you if this ended up at least 28-24?  It wouldn't for me.  I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers so much more than the Patriots this year, but the Chargers history in New England, and Phillip Rivers's history against Tom Brady, might just be too much to overcome in the bad weather in Foxboro.

New England Patriots -190 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belicheck with a bye week to prepare against a warm weather west coast team traveling east to play in the early time slot.  This should be -250.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I just don't see a shootout hear.  Maybe something like 24-17,

New Orleans Saints -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans was 13-3 this year for good reason, and this after starting the season with a loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  New Orleans was the third highest scoring team in the league and second in total defense, meaning Nick Foles is going to have to do this by himself.  Besides Drew Brees, who will be playing against Philly's 30th ranked pass defense, the Saints have the most dangerous running back in the game in Alvin Kamara - because of his versatility.  Here is where the title defense ends.

New Orleans Saints -380 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I thought about hedging my bet here as the Eagles are getting +320, but New Orleans likely beats Philly last year if not for that ridiculous Stefon Diggs last second catch-and-run in the playoffs to knock the Saints out.  This playoff run is a long-time coming for the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Did I mention Philadelphia's 30th ranked pass defense?

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +7 at Los Angeles Rams
I just feel the league, starting with the Bears loss, and continuing through the Philly loss the following week, might have found a way to slow down the Rams.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-126-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($985)

Picks of the Week

OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)