Picks of the Week

Very mediocre week last week.  This week seems pretty easy for me.  As only two games are being played, I will pick the winner, against the spread, and the over/under for each.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
To quote my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".  This seems a bit obvious to me for some reason.

Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina, despite what happened in the second half, thoroughly dominated the Seattle Seahawks, who might be the third or fourth best team in the entire league.  Carolina wins this game, despite the fact that everyone thinks that Carson Palmer, along with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown can take advantage of Carolina's secondary.  Who, is going to take care of Cam Newton?  Really tough year to have gotten rid of Darnell Dockett, Arizona.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
I know what you are saying, "Pepster, why would you take a road favorite in the playoffs?"  Here is why.  New England took Denver into overtime earlier this year without Julian Edelman, the single most important player for New England not named "Tom Brady".  Why is Edelman that important?  Because he gets himself open immediately off the line of scrimmage, which allows Tom Brady to throw those short passes which keeps the defensive pass rush from hitting him.  If the team bunches up against Edelman, then Gronkowski then becomes open.  And to quote Dan Lebatard, "Gronkowski is not human.  Bill Belichick just found a polar bear and taught him how to catch things".  Plus, Peyton Manning did not play in the earlier game, and Peyton is more of a detriment to the Broncos given that he is basically a shell of his former self.  His play actually gives an extra 6 points to New England, in my opinion.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have had a great year, and are perhaps the second best team in the NFL, unfortunately, they are playing the best team in the NFL.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are the best linebacker combination in the NFL.  I WILL NOT ARGUE THIS POINT!!!  They have a phenomenal running game, led by Cam Newton, for whom Arizona's defense just cannot account.  If Arizona is going to have a chance, they are going to have to win an absolute shootout, which brings Greg Olsen - the second best tight end in the league this year behind Gronk and highly touted member of the Seventh Floor Crew, into importance - which is not what Arizona wants to do.  If Arizona can make it a shootout, Carson Palmer will have to keep his interceptions down to 0 or 1, which can be tough.

OVER/UNDER

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos 45 - OVER
The Patriots with Gronkowski and Edelman is good for at least 30 themselves, despite the talent on Denver's defense.  The quick passing game will not allow the Broncos' defense to hit Brady with any regularity, and thus, he will pick them apart little by little.  Denver - in order to win - is going to have to rely heavily on its inconsistent running game, which Belichick will gameplan against.  They will tempt Manning to beat them, which he cannot do.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 47 1/2 - OVER
Lots and lots of points to be scored today, although I feel the over won't be hit until late in the fourth quarter, when a rallying Arizona Cardinals team scores a touchdown with around 2 minutes to go, just before they fail to recover the onside kick.  One note about the Panthers courtesy of Bomani Jones and his producer.  While discussing that Patrick Peterson could cover Ted Ginn, Jr. man-to-man in order to take him out of the game, Jones's producer states that Corey Jones and Jerricho Cotchery will have to have big games.  Bomani Jones's response is simple.  "It's 2016 and we are talking about Jerricho Cotchery".  Now you may think that quote would lead me to pick Arizona, but that goes to show how great Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have been this year - Carolina is winning with Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery.

Big Bet Game of the Week
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Going back to my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".

Last Week's Winners:  2-2
Playoff Winners to Date:  5-3
Last Week's Record:  4-4
Playoff Record:  8-11

Year-to-Date Record: 136-127-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-6
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($205)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $590

Picks of the Week

Picked 3 of the 4 winners last week, but unfortunately, missed most of the spreads.  So I am changing my rules a bit.  I will be counting the straight up  money line bets as well as the spread for the playoffs.  This isn't just because of last week, but because there are only four games this week, and less going forward.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at New England
I know that we are never supposed to doubt Belichick and Brady, but this New England team is really beat up, plus, Kansas City is solid in every aspect of the game.   Sure the Maclin injury huts, but they rely less on 1 single person than any team in the league.

Arizona v. Green Bay
It is chic to say that Green Bay's offense is back after last week, but they didn't play Arizona last week.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
They played a fairly even game earlier in the year, and Seattle's offensive line, and team, are playing much better now.

Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think any starters remain on Pittsburgh's offense.

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
If I expect Kansas City to win outright, then they have to cover, right?

Green Bay Packers + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay is playing better than earlier in the year, especially Aaron Rodgers.  I look for Mike McCarthy to try to run the ball more and keep Arizona's offense off the field.  It won't be enough to win.  Carson Palmer should be getting a lot of consideration for MVP (along with Cam Newton).

Seattle Seahawks + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
As in the Kansas City game, I think the underdog is going to win outright.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
For this game to stay close, Pittsburgh's defense is going to have to outscore Denver's offense.  Won't happen.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Nobody is playing for Pittsburgh.

Last Week's Winners:  3-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  3-1
Last Week's Record:  4-7
Playoff Record:  4-7

Year-to-Date Record: 128-116-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-5
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($535)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $795

Picks of the Week

An exhilarating (and money-making) way to finish up the NFL regular season by going 11-5, and only a play or two away from 13-3!!!

I will make my regular picks using the spread and count that toward my yearly totals.  I will also attempt to select just the winners of the games themselves.  I will do this first in the column, but these bets will not count against my yearly running total.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
The Golden State Warriors are the only hotter team in North American sports.  Alex Smith is actually good, and the fact that Jamal Charles is hurt has only diversified and improved the Chiefs offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals
I am not confident in this pick at all, as this game could go either way.  I just think that Roethlisberger's experience will help Pittsburgh when it counts in the fourth quarter.

Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings
Seattle is easily the best team in this game, and it isn't even close.

Washington Racists over Green Bay Packers
Because I can't select all four visiting teams (although watch Green Bay win and Cincinnati be the lone home team to be victorious).

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Houston Texans +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are overall the better team and they are getting Lamar Houston back, perhaps their best defender and definitely their best pass rusher, so they should win the game; however, Houston's defense is no slouch and they are at home getting points, so this game should be close.  It will be interesting to see which receiver makes the most big plays, Jeremy Maclin or DeAndre Hopkins.  Hopefully this games ends with a late Travis Kelce touchdown for Kansas City to take the lead, just so we can see what type of dance Kelce does (and for which nobody complains - YES I AM TALKING TO YOU CAM NEWTON HATERS).

Cincinnati Bengals + 1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Would it surprise anyone if this was a 1 point game?  No.  Would it surprise anyone if Cincinnati won?  No (even though I picked Pittsburgh to win outright).  That is why I am taking the home underdog.  A.J. McCarron can sling the ball downfield, and Pittsburgh's secondary is a bit suspect (remember the New England game earlier in the year?).

BONUS SELECTION - OVER 44 1/2
Both the Bengals and Steelers can score a lot against each other.

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Washington Racists -1 v. Green Bay Packers
I hate to do this to you Marcus, but Washington is actually playing much better ball than Green Bay right now, and GASP, Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback in this game (based upon their play this year only).  Green Bay has had problems running the ball, and they miss Jordy Nelson.  Washington spreads the ball around in the running and passing games, which could keep the Packers defense from keying in on any individual player.  Jordan Reed might be the best offensive player on the field tomorrow.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama Crimson Tide -6 1/2 v. Clemson Tigers
Now, I have actually liked Clemson a lot this year, but I just think that the Alabama front 7 is so dominating that it will be tough for Clemson to get on track, whereas Clemson's best defensive lineman Shaq Lawson is injured.  Although he will play, if he isn't close to 100%, it will be hard for the Tigers.

BONUS SELECTION UNDER 50 1/2
Both defenses are better than the offenses that they are going against.  I see this game being something like 28-17 or 28-20.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Add to that the fact that although both quarterbacks are on the smaller side compared to the average NFL quarterbacks, Russell Wilson's hands are much, much bigger than Teddy Bridgewater's hands, which could make it difficult for the latter to get a good grip on the ball.  Expect a couple of bad throws from Bridgewater that either miss open receivers or float into the secondary for interceptions, and perhaps a fumble from a hit by Bennett.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Year-to-Date Record: 124-109-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-4
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $700
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,330

Picks of the Week

Last week was amazing watching my Bears live and in person versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, even though I selected the Bucs.  I was able to watch the game with my family and lots of friends, and even met up with friend and longtime WeMakeItRain reader Brent Bellinger.  Go Bears.

Last week was horrible as I evidently rushed through my picks and suffered horribly.  Now I have to try to win this week in situations where we don't know if all of the starters are going to play entire games.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Chicago Bears +1 v. Detroit Lions
Detroit has no running game at all, and hopefully that will allow the Bears to get to the passer a bit.  Chicago has done fairly well at protecting the football and creating turnovers.  I will take points at home.

New Orleans Saints + 5 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams have nothing to play for, and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  Each team has a lot of players that might be playing for hobs next year.  For that reason, I will take Drew Brees, who always seems to care.

New York Jets -3 at Buffalo Bills
In Fitzpatrick we believe.  He has the experience and the wherewithal to lead this team into the playoffs.  He is easily the best Harvard player in the NFL since Matt Birk.

Baltimore Ravens + 9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Now, I have no doubt that Cincinnati wins this game, I just think it might be by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers -11 at Cleveland Browns
I know what you are saying, taking a double digit favorite on the road in a divisional game is ridiculous, and you would be correct.  However, Pittsburgh's offense was so horrible last week, that I think they are going to score last week's and this week's points against Cleveland.

Washington Racists +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is a ridiculous line likely only because the Racists have nothing to play for and may sit a number of its starters - which may be true.  But with that being said, I don't see Dallas blowing them out, so Washington should keep it close, at least.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
If this game was a couple of weeks ago, I would have taken the points with the Jags and the Allen-Allen wide receiver combo (that's Robinson and Hurns). However, this week the Texans have a playoff spot on the line and they come up firing.

Indianapolis Colts No Line v. Tennessee Titans
I will take the Colts trying to make their way into the playoffs versus the Titans who would love another Top 5 pick.

Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots
Remember when Dolphins nation was all gung-ho about the Dan Campbell era during his first two games?  Yeah, me neither.  New England can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but I am not sure they have the firepower to win by 10.  New England 28-20.

Philadelphia Eagles +5 at New York Giants
Firing the coach worked for the first two Dolphins games, so perhaps the Eagles will feel "free" of Chip Kelly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Carolina Panthers
I think the Panthers may be cautious with a lot of the stars/starters.  A late Jameis Winston touchdown pass to cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Oakland Raiders
No team in the NFL is hotter as the Chiefs have won 9 straight.  Make that 10 straight.

Seattle Seahawks + 6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
These two teams probably don't want to give too much away in case they meet up in the playoffs.  That is why I predict an incredibly close game, so I will take the points.

San Diego Chargers +9 at Denver Broncos
The Chargers are not good, but I am not sure the Broncos can score 9 points right now.  5-3 Denver victory.

St. Louis Rams -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I have no idea on this one.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers
A winner take all battle for the NFC North (Green Bay clinches with a tie).  It is tempting to take the Packers at home, but I think the Vikings control the ball with Adrian Peterson.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles +5 at New York Giants
I hate taking divisional games as the big bet, but there is no choice this week as all games are intra-division games.  So that narrows it down to the times I am taking the points.  New Orleans, Baltimore (because of the number), San Diego (same), Seattle and Philadelphia received a good amount of points, and Philadelphia (along with Seattle and New Orleans) seems like it has the best chance of winning outright.  I am hoping for a post-coach firing bounce for the Eagles.

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Year-to-Date Record: 113-104-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 12-4
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $630