The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under. This allows 12 picks for the weekend. I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100. Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts. Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs. Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis. Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston. These games are close, so I will take the points.
Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff. I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points). I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.
Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott. While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6). If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.
Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright. Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense. Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over. I can picture that type of score here.
Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers. But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here. Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.
Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game. The under it is.
Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection. First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss. Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close. Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback. There, I said it.
Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate. Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner). The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense. And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league. Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense). The Bears should win this game at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores
Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points). I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.
I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($880)
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