Picks of the Week

So, regressed to the mean and gave back a few bucks last week, just like I knew was going to happen.  But, either way, there is going to be some football this weekend, as I am reporting to you live from The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida - one of the few reasons to ever go to Jacksonville, Florida.  Hell, even the Jaguars play their home games in London.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ten points is A LOT in this league, but had to go for the home team on the short week.  And it would have worked except for the damn facemask on Jordan Phillips.  Oh well - gotta make it up on Sunday!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Everything about the Steelers says they are a bad team.  Like, really, really bad.  Next-to-last (31st) in offense and just slightly better (30th) in defense.  But somehow they are 4-2 and are getting points at home against a good, but somewhat milquetoast Jaguars team.  Probably a dumb pick, but I keep coming back to Pittsburgh.

New York Giants +3 v. New York Jets

Both home teams, so that doesn't matter.  This could be a game in which both teams struggle to score.  For that reason, and that reason alone I am taking the points.  

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Houston is an average team that is surprisingly entertaining, and Carolina is neither of those things.  I  know it is six games in, but C.J. Stroud has taken an early, but sizable lead in the "Who is the best rookie QB" race.  Whomever wants Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), get your offers ready for the Bears, as Chicago has Carolina's first round pick.

New England Patriots +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

After seeing what the Patriots defense did to the Bills last week, I am taking this spread.  I expect Miami to win, but maybe Bailey Zappe in relief of Mac Jones scoring a backdoor cover to lose 30-21?

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Desmond Ridder is sufficiently competent, and could we be seeing Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan? (Perhaps to the Bills, or Browns?)

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

I honestly don't feel good about this pick, or if I picked Dallas, either.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Commanders

Road intra-divisional favorites are always tough to pick, but after the way the Eagles made the Dolphins look last week, it is hard to bet against them, even giving a touchdown.  Plus, Washington is 26th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia has the toughest rush defense, giving up just under 63 yards per game. Then, add to that the increasing winds around potential trades of Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young, and this could get ugly depending upon how Washington responds.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes interesting, mostly nondescript offense led by Derek Carr versus a sometimes intriguing, mostly milquetoast offense led by Gardner Minshew.  Taking New Orleans only because of their tough defense (3rd overall, 4th passing, 6th scoring).

Cleveland Browns +4 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game could actually go either way, especially since the Browns are led by future-XFL Hall-of-Famer P.J. Walker.  But that Cleveland defense is just too banging.  Kareem Hunt is a legitimate starter in this league, but could Cleveland be in the Derrick Henry sweepstakes?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Denver Broncos

If this game was last week, I would have selected Denver, since Kansas City had played pretty close games except for their blowout win against Chicago.  But, their victory over the Chargers may have convinced me that they are truly starting to click.  What happens when Mecole Hardman gets settled in.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Vikings, I am definitely taking the points in this game with San Francisco having played Monday night.  

Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens win this game, but I just cannot give up double digits at home.  Ravens win 23-14.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have to be the best 2-4 team ever.  Seriously.  Justin Herbert has a 97.1 rating.  They are 5th in total offense, but, oh yeah, 31st in total defense and 32nd in passing defense.  That probably won't matter against a Bears team that is 28th in scoring, but it might matter enough for Chicago to cover.

Detroit Lions -8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a mess.  They just gave up 30 to the Bears, and barely beat the Patriots and Packers in the two weeks before that.  Meanwhile the Lions will be angry coming off last week's shellacking at the hands of the Ravens.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

This SHOULD happen.  Easiest picks on the board often surprise, thought, and that is what I don't like, except Kirk Cousins is playing in the noon slot!

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-43-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,275

Picks of the Week

 

Alright, stop me if you have heard this before... another .500 week.  And, another small winning week.  I would, of course, love a big winning week, but anytime you finish in the black.  Hope this continues.  But, it is Packers week, with the Kentucky Wildcats playing hoops in Michigan at the same time.  Gotta keep my head on a swivel today.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Buffalo Bills -4 at New England Patriots

A rare occasion when I select the road team on a Thursday.  But, by virtue of Buffalo having played on Thanksgiving, this was not a short week for them.  

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Not since the year before the DeShaun Watson draft, I mean the Mitchell Trubisky draft, have I been this excited for losses (GO WILL ANDERSON!!!), but a cover I will take. Not sure of the Aaron Rodgers situation (although I know he is playing, and the Bears defense is 27th against the rush, but the Packers defense is 31st against the rush and the Bears are the number 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to the dynamic Justin Fields.  Packers by 3.

Philadelphia  -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

By almost any analysis this should be a close game, except something tells me A.J. Brown might have something to prove.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Detroit Lions

I have been on the Detroit Lions betting train all year, but Jacksonville is seriously underrated as a bet also.  Both teams have about the same level of offensive numbers overall, and the Jaguars defense is mediocre whereas the Lions defense is putrid.

Cleveland Browns -8 at Houston Texans

Do I expect DeShaun Watson to be rusty in his first game back in forever?  Yes.  Do I think 8 points is too much to give in such a game?  Also yes.  Why I am picking them?  Houston has the worst offense in the league overall, and are 30th in scoring offense.  They are also 29th in the league in overall defense, but last in rushing defense.  Nick Chubb carries this day while Watson shakes off the rust.

New York Jets +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are much, much better with Mike White behind center, and the Vikings are dead last in the NFL in passing defense.  Jets do just enough to cover against the Noon Nightmare Kirk Cousins at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

Denver Broncos +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Don't get me wrong, the Broncos won't win this game.  But, after racing out to a big lead, the Ravens collapse in the fourth and Denver back-door covers with a late field goal to cut it to 8.

Washington Commanders -2 at New York Giants

The Giants are going backwards, having lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 (the other a victory over the Texans), whereas the Commanders have won 3 in a row, and have looked like a playoff team since settling on Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback.  Plus, the Commanders at 8th in the NFL in rushing defense have the ability to slow down Saquon Barkley.  This is dangerous, though, in picking a road intra-divisional favorite, but I am going to do it.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This is THE game of the week to watch.  A dynamic offense in Miami (2nd in passing, 3rd overall, and 6th in scoring) versus THE defense in the NFL in San Francisco (1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in rushing, 11th in passing).  But, San Franciso's offense - which is overall 11th in the NFL - has a boost in that Christian McCaffrey is becoming more and more familiar with the scheme and the team.  San Fran here.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Another road favorite in an intradivisional game, except the Rams are starting John Wolford.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers are banged up and Raiders have won two in a row.  I believe they can make it three.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Two quarterbacks playing at really high levels - Mahomes 105.3 rating; Burrow 101.7 rating.  And, with J'Marr Chase being back, I will take points at home.

Indianapolis Colts +10 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

With Matt Ryan back, I think the Colts can play smart enough to cover this double-digit spread - or at least I hope.  I hate giving up 10 or more points, so I will take them.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In a game that I will likely not even watch, I am just taking the points.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

I hate giving up points in the Big Bet, so -1 isn't really giving up points.  But, I also hate picking road teams more for a Big Bet, so, I am picking a road team. I considered Washignton (-2 at Giants) and San Francisco (-4 1/2 v. Dolphins) here.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  87-85-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($630)

Picks of the Week

 

Another approximately .500 week, but capped off by a big bet loss, mostly because of a fluke ending quarter for the Bears, but that is a game that should have ended differently - the crazy lament of the gambler.  In Boston today, so all I hear is Patriots, Patriots, Patriots.  I super hope that all of this doesn't subliminally affect any AFC East picks.  Lets see ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Home team on a short week.  Glad the Packers lost, hate it for my picks.

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really don't like this pick, but I am trying not to overthink it.  Philadelphia is on a short week, having played a tough game on Monday night.  Indianapolis has the 4th ranked defense, so they could keep this close, even if Philadelphia wins.

 

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Pacific time zone team only traveling to the central time zone, not eastern, but they bring with them the worst total offense in the NFL and the worst rushing offense in the NFL.   Defense is still stout (4th in rushing, 4th overall), but this is much more than just a Super Bowl hangover.

Houston Texans +3 v. Washington Commanders

I also don't like this pick, but the Commanders are coming off a hugely emotional win on Monday night, and the combination of a letdown and a short week means Washington wins 21-20.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah, can't be outcoached in a big game, blah, blah, blah, no way the Jets can take over 1st place in the AFC East, blah, blah, blah.  New England has the 27th ranked offense, and the Jets have the 6th best total defense (9th in passing, 11th in rushing).  Jets with points, yes please!

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants

Are the Giants the better team?  Yes.  Are the Giants playing at home?  Also yes.  But, Detroit has the 7th best total offense, which is balanced between passing (8th) and rushing (10th).  Detroit also has the worst defens in the NFL, both total and scoring, but the Giants are only 22nd in scoring.  This means a big game for Saquon Barkley that results in a 30-28 victory.

Carolina Panthers +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Two touchdowns is a lot of points.  This will probably happen then, since I have been generally bullish on the double digit underdogs to little avail.  I am hoping that Baltimore welcoming back Gus Edwards keeps them just rusty enough to not cover, and Baker Mayfield is just feisty/angry enough to keep this close-ish.

Cleveland Browns +8 at Buffalo Bills

I seem to be a big fan of the underdogs today, and that train continues rolling as the Bills have two consecutive losses, and two relatively close games prior.  I'll take Nick Chubb and the points.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr's emotion during last week's press conference could galvanize the team, but it is more likely that the Raiders find it difficult to score against the best scoring defense, and number 2 total defense in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati appears to have figured out their offense sans J'Marr Chase.  They will need Burrow to keep up his 102.6 passer rating in order to avenge their early-season loss to the Steelers.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game is in the 4 p.m. time slot, which means that Kirk Cousins will probably underperform.  Seriously, the Noon Nightmare (the 1:00 eastern time slot starts at noon in Minneapolis) is a much better quarterback during the early games.  Yes, his failings ordinarily occur during prime time games, but that must mean he plays progressively worse throughout the day.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

A healthy Keenan Allen makes this Chargers offense immensely better, however, we don't necessarily know if Keenan Allen is going to be fully healthy yet.

San Francisco 49ers -8 at Arizona Cardinals

Colt McCoy.

Byes:  Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

I am going to the well for a second straight week, as I think the Bears getting points are much more dangerous than when the gave points to Detroit.  My other thoughts were the Jets, but I didn't want to bet against Belichick; Denver, except they have been so erratic offensively, and the Bye against the Jaguars, but nobody would take that bet.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  72-72-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($850)