Picks of the Week

So, regressed to the mean and gave back a few bucks last week, just like I knew was going to happen.  But, either way, there is going to be some football this weekend, as I am reporting to you live from The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida - one of the few reasons to ever go to Jacksonville, Florida.  Hell, even the Jaguars play their home games in London.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ten points is A LOT in this league, but had to go for the home team on the short week.  And it would have worked except for the damn facemask on Jordan Phillips.  Oh well - gotta make it up on Sunday!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Everything about the Steelers says they are a bad team.  Like, really, really bad.  Next-to-last (31st) in offense and just slightly better (30th) in defense.  But somehow they are 4-2 and are getting points at home against a good, but somewhat milquetoast Jaguars team.  Probably a dumb pick, but I keep coming back to Pittsburgh.

New York Giants +3 v. New York Jets

Both home teams, so that doesn't matter.  This could be a game in which both teams struggle to score.  For that reason, and that reason alone I am taking the points.  

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Houston is an average team that is surprisingly entertaining, and Carolina is neither of those things.  I  know it is six games in, but C.J. Stroud has taken an early, but sizable lead in the "Who is the best rookie QB" race.  Whomever wants Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), get your offers ready for the Bears, as Chicago has Carolina's first round pick.

New England Patriots +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

After seeing what the Patriots defense did to the Bills last week, I am taking this spread.  I expect Miami to win, but maybe Bailey Zappe in relief of Mac Jones scoring a backdoor cover to lose 30-21?

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Desmond Ridder is sufficiently competent, and could we be seeing Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan? (Perhaps to the Bills, or Browns?)

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

I honestly don't feel good about this pick, or if I picked Dallas, either.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Commanders

Road intra-divisional favorites are always tough to pick, but after the way the Eagles made the Dolphins look last week, it is hard to bet against them, even giving a touchdown.  Plus, Washington is 26th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia has the toughest rush defense, giving up just under 63 yards per game. Then, add to that the increasing winds around potential trades of Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young, and this could get ugly depending upon how Washington responds.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes interesting, mostly nondescript offense led by Derek Carr versus a sometimes intriguing, mostly milquetoast offense led by Gardner Minshew.  Taking New Orleans only because of their tough defense (3rd overall, 4th passing, 6th scoring).

Cleveland Browns +4 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game could actually go either way, especially since the Browns are led by future-XFL Hall-of-Famer P.J. Walker.  But that Cleveland defense is just too banging.  Kareem Hunt is a legitimate starter in this league, but could Cleveland be in the Derrick Henry sweepstakes?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Denver Broncos

If this game was last week, I would have selected Denver, since Kansas City had played pretty close games except for their blowout win against Chicago.  But, their victory over the Chargers may have convinced me that they are truly starting to click.  What happens when Mecole Hardman gets settled in.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Vikings, I am definitely taking the points in this game with San Francisco having played Monday night.  

Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens win this game, but I just cannot give up double digits at home.  Ravens win 23-14.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have to be the best 2-4 team ever.  Seriously.  Justin Herbert has a 97.1 rating.  They are 5th in total offense, but, oh yeah, 31st in total defense and 32nd in passing defense.  That probably won't matter against a Bears team that is 28th in scoring, but it might matter enough for Chicago to cover.

Detroit Lions -8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a mess.  They just gave up 30 to the Bears, and barely beat the Patriots and Packers in the two weeks before that.  Meanwhile the Lions will be angry coming off last week's shellacking at the hands of the Ravens.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

This SHOULD happen.  Easiest picks on the board often surprise, thought, and that is what I don't like, except Kirk Cousins is playing in the noon slot!

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-43-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,275