Picks of the Week

I guess putting some thought and analysis into games can help.  13-2 BABY!!!  Quite possibly my best week ever, even including weeks before I kept this blog.  Now, I know that a reversal is coming, and probably deserved, so I am going to tempt fate and just brag about this week for a while, until that reversal occurs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

There would have to be a very compelling reason for me to select the visiting team on a short week.  The Jaguars getting points is that compelling reason.

Chicago Bears +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The obvious selection here is the Raiders, but when not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks will be starting a game, strange things will happen, like maybe a 8-6 Raiders victory!

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

Buffalo Bills -8 at New England Patriots

This New England team cannot score points (31st in the league at 12 per game), and they cannot teams from scoring (Tied for 24th in the league.)  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 3rd in scoring and 3rd in scoring defense.

New York Giants +3 v. Washington Commanders

I actually like thsi Commanders squad a little bit more than most, but I am making this selection on a feeling that Saquon Barkley with a game under his belt is going to be closer to his real self, and that will open up some passing lanes for Darren Waller as well.  Close game, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For all of the tealk about the 3-2 Buccaneers being the surprise team in the NFC South, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons are about even or better in most offensive stats, and are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.  Imagine if they had a quarterback?!

Detroit Lions +3 at Baltimore Ravens

This is strength on strength.  Detroit's 3rd-ranked offense versus Baltimore's 3rd-ranked defense.  The Lions are the number 4 passing team in the league and 8th rushing team.  Baltimore is the 2nd-best passing defense and 9th-best rushing defense.  Detroit is the 4th-highest scoring team, and Baltimore is the 4th stingiest defense.  The difference?  Detroit's defense is better than Baltimore's offense.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona is a really bad squad, on both sides of the ball, with the exception that they use to be able to run the ball with James Conner - but he is on IR.  But, Seattle isn't THAT good to  be giving up 9 plus points.  They only score 24 a game, and give up 21.6.  I'll take the points and avoid watching this game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have won several games selecting Pittsburgh as an underdog this year.  But not this game against this offense.  The Rams are 5th in total offense and 6th in passing.  The Steelers are 30th in total defense and 25th in passing defense.  I expect the Rams to put up more than enough points to coast, even if TJ Watt gets a sack or two.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Denver Broncos

Only because Aaron Jones returning makes him the best player on the field for either team.  Another game to avoid watching!

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City hasn't exactly been lighting teams up.  With the exception of the Bears game, KC has played teams pretty close, including a boring 19-8 performance against the Broncos last week.  So, taking the points seems obvious here.  But, then we see the Chargeres are last in the league in passing defense and next-to-last in total defense, so if there is a team against which the Chiefs could solve some of their offensive problems, this would be it.  And ... the Chargers played Monday night, so they are on a short week.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

These are the two best offenses in the league.  The Eagles defense is just a bit better than the Dolphins.  When something is seemingly close, I'll take the points.  I don't like this pick though, and I wouldn't like it if I picked Philly, either.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco looked good - or at least as good as any offense has looked against the Browns this year - in a loss, whereas the Vikings looked bad in a win against the lowly Bears.  I expect San Francisco to bounce back in a big way.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

I don't like any of these picks strongly enough to make them my big bet, so I landed here.  I don't like this one because I hate giving up points on the road; but so was Atlanta.  I thought about the Giants at home, but I am not comfortable with that pick.  KC merited consideration, but they have been a bit sluggish.  In short, I just felt more confident in Cleveland than anybody else.

Last Week's Record:  13-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  53-36-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1,230

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,610