Picks of the Week

 

Super Wild Card Weekend went pretty much as expected, as 5 of the 6 top seeds won games, and the won that lost - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - were the underdogs in that game.  To be fair, "Cue Letterkenny - TO BE FAIRRRRRRRRRRRR," Jacksonville as the 4 seed was also an underdog and beat the Chargers, so 5 of the top 6 favorites won, while 5 of the top 6 seeds won, but they all weren't the same five.  Anyway - really good playoff week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Once again the Jaguars are playing on Saturday, to basically kick-off the playoff coverage, and although their amazing comeback last week was captivating, I don't expect that type of comeback against Kansas City's offense.  Yes, I said offense, because even if Jacksonville scores against KC's defense, they will not be able to stop the leagues highest-scoring offense.

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53

I see a 35-14/35-17 type of game today.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 v. New York Giants

This might seem tough because of the close game the teams just played in the last week of the season (22-16), but then I realize that the Giants are playing on a short week, so I will take the home team with full rest because of a bye playing a team travelling on a short week.

Philadelphia Eagles -375 v. New York Giants (Bet $375 to win $100)

Plus, the Eagles have the third best defense (total AND scoring) in the NFL, whereas the Giants 27th ranked rushing defense will try to stop the Eagles fifth-rated rushing attack.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48

This seems like a 35-17 game, or 33-21.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills

This is the game that I am most looking forward to seeing.  I picked Cincinnati in the Damar Hamlin game because Buffalo has not seemed dominant, and even the Bears stayed even with Bills for 3+ quarters.  Giving 6 to Cincinnati with a depleted secondary seems dangerous as Cincinnati is the 5th best passing attack in the league.  The injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line are concerning, but they overcame that last year to make the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals +210 at Buffalo Bills (Bet $100 to win $210)

Buffalo's line is at -250, so it just makes sense to take the Cincinnati money line here.  Cincinnati may not shock anybody this year, but they still win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills OVER 49

Would it shock anybody if this went 30+ points for both teams?

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco is rested, and they have the number 1 defense in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Plus, they have the 6th highest scoring offense, and is there any doubt they would have been higher had they had Christian McCaffrey all year?  Plus, the Cowboys are playing on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -200 v. Dallas Cowboys

If I think the 49ers are going to cover the spread, I must think they are going to win outright, correct?  San Francisco is my favorite to win the Super Bowl right now.  Not sure who has the brawn to stop them, or the guns to outscore them.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers OVER 46 1/2

Honestly, I think this number is a bit low, so I will definitely take the over.

Big Bet:

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

The biggest monetary risk on the board is also the easiest pick on the board.  Have I mentioned that Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off a bye week.  These teams met in November, with Mahomes going 26-35 for 331 yards and 4 TDs, plus rushing for 39 more yards.  KC wins this.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  145-127-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $609.50