Picks of the Week

 

So the damn big bet got me this past week, as I finished with more wins than losses, but still lost money.  Guess I need to pay more attention to the big bet.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Denver Broncos -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

God was this awful.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Giants (in London)

This game is coming to us from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.  I feel like Green Bay will win big because they are basically the Tottenham Hotspur of the NFL, so this should feel like a home game.

Minnesota Vikings -7 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears still have not given up a touchdown in the second half.  I don't know if that streak will continue, but it probably won't matter.

Detroit Lions +3 at New England Patriots

Let the Bailey Zappe era begin (and end!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +14 at Buffalo Bills

This is just a lot of points.

New York Jets +3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

You would be shocked if I told you that the Jets total offense was better than the Dolphins (8th to 10th) and the Jets defense was WAY better than the Dolphins (8th to 28th.)  Yes I will take the points at home.

Atlanta Falcons +10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points considering that the Buccaneers only score 20.5 points per game, and Atlanta is actually 8th in scoring offense in the league.

New Orleans Saints -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's defense is next-to-last in the NFL is total defense and scoring defense, 29th against the rush and 28th against the pass.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 v. Houston Texans

I honestly had no idea what I was going to do here, but Jacksonville is the 6th leading scoring team in the NFL, and the Texans are only 26th.  That is as good a place to start as any.

Tennessee Titans -1 at Washington Commanders

I still love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  This game should be one that nobody wants to watch.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so of course I am picking the Browns.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Dallas Cowboys +5 at Los Angeles Rams

The teams are remarkably similar on offense (Rams 26th; Dallas 28th), but Dallas's defense is much, much better.  Los Angeles's defense just doesn't look the same.  Perhaps Von Miller was important?

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has been incredibly disappointing so far, and the Eagles are great on offense (2nd overall) and defense (3rd overall.)

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is one-sided, this time over-relying on its offense as the defense struggles (30th overall, last in oassing defense, 23rd in scoring defense.)

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes loves prime time.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Honestly, I hate taking road teams, much less road favorites, for my big bet, but this seems like the easiest game to pick to me.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  32-29-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145