Picks of the Week

Welcome to our Picks of the Week.  For a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

My second consecutive losing week,even though I finished over .500 (I lost my big bet) but I am starting to feel like I really have a feeling for this season.  Let's see if that is true this week.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at St. Louis Rams
Last year, before the Rams were supposed to be good, they beat and tied the Niners in two meetings.  This year was supposed to be even tougher for the Niners, however DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys is still piling up yardage against the Rams defense.  If San Francisco gets back to their power game, Frank Gore should pile up big numbers also.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 at Cleveland Browns
The Browns were expected to have a great defense, but the yards they put up against Minnesota were astounding.  Cincinnati's pass rush is better, meaning this is a big test for Brian Hoyer.  I honestly think Cincinnati is a top 4 or 5 team in the league.

Chicago Bears +3 at Detroit Lions
Yes it is a intra-divisional game, and yes it is for first place in the NFC North.  This game is supposed to be close.  In those situations, I will take the points.  I feel the Bears defense is much better than the Lions defense, and with both offenses having the potential to put up a lot of yards, the defenses will be key.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Houston Texans
I honestly cannot believe that I am taking 4 road favorites right now, but at this rate, everyone should take Seattle until they prove otherwise.  The Texans' defense is not good enough to stop the multi-faceted attack of the Seahawks, whereas the Seahawks defense is amazing, and can slow down the Texans offense.

Indianapolis Colts -8 at Jacksonville Jaguars
OK - 5 road favorites.  I actually had Jacksonville covering a 19 point spread last week, but alas, they could not do even that.  I will be happy to give up only 8 with Indianapolis, who is probably the third best team in the league right now.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 v. New York Giants
The Giants are horrible right now, and the Chiefs are playing really good football.

Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
As ridiculous as it was that the Vikings lost to the Hoyer-led Browns, they did put up a bunch of points against a pretty good Cleveland defense.

Arizona Cardinals +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Glennon's first NFL start.  I am sure that several players on the team still support Josh Johnson as quarterback, and this split is obviously going to have an effect on the Buccaneers, unless Glennon has a tremendous start to this game.  This game is all about Tampa Bay, and not Arizona.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The Jets are much better than expected, and it is obvious to me that with Geno Smith, they are able to be more effective offensively than with Mark Sanchez at the helm.  The Titans are solid, but not spectacular, so I do not see them blowing the Jets out.  Chris Johnson will have a tough time running through the line anchored by rookie Sheldon Richardson, who might be playing the best ball of any rookie in the NFL through the first three games.

Philadelphia Eagles +11 at Denver Broncos
Say what you will about the Eagles "new" offense, but they do move the ball a lot, and if not for 5 turnovers last week, they easily score a ton more.  Denver's offense is completely clicking, and I don't see the Eagles defense stopping them too much, but I still think the Eagles, with Vick, McCoy and Jackson, score more than enough to cover.

Oakland Raiders +3 v. Washington Redskins
Oakland, albeit not great, is no push over.  It looks like Terrelle Pryor will play this weekend, and if so, the Redskins pass defense is the worst in the league.  Oakland will keep this close, at best, and conceivably could win.

Dallas Cowboys -2 at San Diego Chargers
The two teams that I cannot figure out this year, but I think San Diego played its best football in the first couple of weeks.  If the Cowboys continue to run, this will make their vaunted passing attack even more dangerous, without the threat of Romo having to do everything himself.

Atlanta Falcons -2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots have been winning primarily with smoke-and-mirrors, while Atlanta, despite two losses, has been playing pretty well.  They outplayed the Dolphins, despite losing the game, and played with the Saints for the entire game - another loss.  Although the Falcons defense is not as improved as some thought - or needed to be, and although they are decimated with injuries, they should still have more than enough offensively to beat the Patriots,

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins won last week despite being outplayed - although they did really take it to Indianapolis.  I just feel that time, and talent, catch up with the Dolphins for this week.  The Saints might have the most explosive offensive weaponry, and the Dolphins will not have enough to keep up.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills secondary was exposed a bit against the Jets, and Torry Smith is even better than either Santonio Holmes of Steven Hill.  Although the Bills are much improved and the Ravens have regressed, the Ravens seem to have found themselves last week.


Previous Week's Record: 8-7-1
Year to Date: 20-25-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Beat Year to Date: 2-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($135)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: ($505)