Picks of the Week

   

Two winning weeks in a row - I will take that for sure.  Especially as we enter the first really precarious weekend of the NFL season.  We have one Covid cancellation (Tennessee-Pittsburgh); one Covid postponement until Monday or Tuesday (New England-Kansas City); one big star testing positive (Cam Newton) and one false positive (with the New Orleans Saints).  I will be predicting the KC-NE game, but that bet will not count if not played by Tuesday (this week).  Tennessee-Pittsburgh has already been re-scheduled for later in the season, but I will mention it - but not pick it this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos +1 at New York Jets

I don't care that it is a short week, I will take points from the Jets.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans PPD (Covid-19)

Technically this is being changed into a "Bye Week", but the Titans have had 18 players and staff test positive for Covid-19.  We don't yet know which players, but that will affect them next week against Buffalo.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Detroit Lions

We had a scare with the fullback, who was sitting on the team plane next to Alvin Kamara, tested positive for Covid-19, but the follow-up test confirmed the first positive was a false positive - therefore a negative.  Anyway, New Orleans is 1-2, and more importantly just hasn't looked like it should, especially offensively without Michael Thomas.  That should change today with the Setroie Lions being 28th in total defense and 30th in rushing defense (and 26th in scoring defense).

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I really, really want to take the Cardinals.  But, the gambling rules say take the home team when the visiting team is from the west coast and travels east for the early game.  Especially when the visiting west coast team is a favorite.  I will ultimately - and begrudgingly - take Carolina and hope Arizona wins 23-21.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I hate, hate this game.  Not from a gambling stanpoint but from a football fan standpoint.  This game is between two not very good teams - but both very fun to watch.  I take it back, I love this game.  Minshew and Burrow are going to be throwing the ball all over the place.  For that, I will just take the points, and because Jacksonville is inconsistent and they were horrible last week.

Dallas Cowboys -4 v. Cleveland Browns

The Cowboys are remarkably 21st in rushing offense, mostly because they are 1st in passing offense (and total offense).  That is mostly because they were beding to the Rams and Seattle in the games they have lost and were way behind in Atlanta and came back to win.  They should not have the same problem against Cleveland and can comfortably rush the ball from ahead.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston's paltry offense (28th overall; 31st rushing offense; 29th scoring offense) versus Minnesota's anemic defense (30th in total defense and passing defense; 26th in rushing defense; 31st in scoring defense).  But, Minnesota does have the 8th best rushing offense and Houston has the league's worst rushing defense allowing 188.3 per game.

Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

You should all be able to recite the "west coast team traveling east and playing the early game" mantra.  However, the one team immune to that is Seattle, who have managed to win, and cover, regularly on the east coast.  Then why don't you just pick them Pepe?  Because this line seems weird.  It seems like a Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass late, late in the game to lose 31-27.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This number is just too high.  Yes I know LA is a west coast team and this is a 1:00 game.  The number is too much.  Should have been about 4 or 4 1/2.  Chargers have the 6th total offense (6th in rushing and 8th in passing) as well as the 8th total defense (11th in passing and 11th in defense; 4th in scoring defense).  Tampa just shouldn't be able to score enough more than Los Angeles to cover this number.

Washington Football Team +14 v. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are much better than the Football Team, and they are probably angry and embarrassed at their performance last week against Kansas City, but they are on a short week and on the road (albeit not very far), so to give up two touchdowns is A LOT.  Baltimore wins, but maybe 34-24.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Let's be honest, this is a crapshoot because we don't know how the Bears' offense is going to react to Nick Foles being under center for the entire game.  Also, Tarik Cohen out for the year on a cheap shot (he was hit in the leg while fair catching a punt).  I think (hope) they rally around Foles.  They will have to do just that going against the #1 defense in the NFL as of right now (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense, 3rd in 3rd down conversion defense and 4th in rushing defense).  Bears keep it close, even if they fall for their first loss of the season.  Please note, this game was moved from the 1:00 time slot to 4:25 due to the postponement of the New England Kansas City game.

Los Angeles Rams -13 v. New York Giants

I do not know why I am so willing to give 13 here, but not 14 in the Baltimore game.  It must be because the Rams are home with a prolific offense (3rd in total offense and rushing offense, 6th in passing offense, 7th in scoring offense).  In contrast, the GIants have the absolute worst offense in the NFL (25th in passing defense, dead last in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense).

Buffalo Bills -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is a classic strength versus weakness battle.  Buffalo has the offense (4th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 2nd in passing offense) whereas Las Vegas has problems stopping anybody (22nd in passing defense, 25th in scoring defense, 27th in total defense, 28th in rushing defense).  Bills get to 4-0 and cover doing it.

Philadelphis Eagles +7 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco still wins this game, as they are very comfortable with Nick Mullens behind center.  But, their injuries have to start catching up to them at some point, right?  Even in Philadelphia doesn't win, they have to start playing better at some point also.  The Eagles have offensive line problems, but the entire starting defensive line for the 49ers is injured.  San Francisco may win, but don't cover.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons

I have said it before and I will say it again.  This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour.  A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.

Kansas City Cheifs No Line v. New England Patriots

Right now they are going to play Tuesday, but nobody knows for certain, and no line has been set.  I will make a pick when it is, but it is likely going to be Kansas City anyway, because Brian Hoyer is starting at QB for New England.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons

I have said it before and I will say it again.  This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour.  A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.

The spread is a little high for me for a big bet, but I get Aaron Rodgers on an MVP-type roll (and Aaron Jones also), and at home in a big prime time game.  Plus, it worked last week for me!

The other game I gave serious consideration to choosing for this slot was Dallas -4 v. Cleveland, but I trust Aaron Rodgers more.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  27-20-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $950

Picks of the Week

Horrible week, again.  This is becoming a familiar refrain.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Road favorite, yes, but Minnesota was without a coach.  Damn Vikings.

Chicago Bears +1 v. San Francisco 49ers
If the Bears lose this game, and they should, they fall into the number 2 pick in the draft.  Let's go DeShaun Watson.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Kansas City just does not give up that many points on defense.  I feel the Falcon win, but 23-20.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
In what should be a really close game, I will take the points.  The Ravens have won four of the last five against the Dolphins, but Miami keeps it close at least.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati tries to salvage something from a very disappointing season.  That something is they find a new a complement to A.J. Green in Tyler Boyd.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I predict that all of Green Bay's touchdown drives total the amount of plays in one of Houston's drives.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

The Broncos had established some good rhythm with Trevor Siemian, but have to start rookie Paxton Lynch today.  Austin Davis from Southern Mississippi is the backup today.  Rough going for the Broncos.

Los Angeles Rams +13 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game, but with all of their injuries, I do not see it being complete domination.  I will take almost 2 touchdowns.

New Orleans -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The only thing that I know for sure about this game is that the Lions will be trailing in the fourth quarter.  I expect New Orleans to close them out.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Oakland is cruising.

Washington Racists +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Kirk Cousins bet on himself, and he is winning HUGE!  The Skins offense keeps rolling against a disappointing Arizona team.  David Johnson does score two touchdowns, though.

New York Giants +6 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers cannot stop anybody, which means they really cannot stop Odell Beckham, Jr.  Plus, the visiting team usually wins in this series.  So, I will take the visiting team with points!

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Diego is so much better than its 5-6 record.  They are the third highest scoring team, and they will put up a ton against Tampa Bay.

Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 5-0 at home, but three of these games have been by six points or less.  Cam pulls a big game out of Greg Olsen to keep this close on the road.

New York Jets +2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Andres Luck is 0-2 against the Jets in his career with a passer rating of 52.  Jets win in an upset.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I predict that all of Green Bay's touchdown drives total the amount of plays in one of Houston's drives.  Plus, it looks like Aaron Rodgers and this offense has found a good rhythm.

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 85-89-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):($30)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2860)

Picks of the Week

I had a decent week last week  Not amazing, but a winning week.  That was two in  a row.  A really good week this week will put me in great spirits heading into Christmas.

The NFL has already played 2 games this week, and I was conversing on Facebook with longtime reader Brent Bellinger, so he can vouch that I made picks prior to kickoff of those games.  Not that one win and push is much to brag about, but I strive to keep things accurate.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Just FYI - This week's games were really tough for me.  A large number of them I bounced back-and-forth before settling on my decision.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
If only Winston showed up earlier.

New York Jets -3 at Dallas Cowboys
I try to avoid road favorites, but this one involved Matt Cassell.  How was I to know Kellen Moore would become involved?

Chicago Bears + 5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears have kept most of their games close this year, so 5 1/2 seems like a lot of points.  Plus, there is an actual chance of the Bears winning, so this is one underdog I feel comfortable selecting.

Baltimore Ravens + 6 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
This is not even close to the Ravens team we expected to see, but they play every game close, are at home, and getting almost a touchdown.  I feel the Chiefs should still win, but not by that much.  Plus, Lamarr Houston is out of the game, so it will be more difficult for the Chiefs to mount a huge pass rush, on which their defense relies.

Houston Texans + 1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This is for the AFC South lead.  That is right, your read that correctly.  The winner of this battle of 6-7 Titans will be in first in the AFC South.  And to think of all of the vitriol us wannabe commentators have reserved for the NFC East.  Texans defense makes a couple of more plays.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are reeling, having lost 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8.  The Jaguars are 1 game out of first, and are suddenly an offensive juggernaut having scored 51 and 39 in their last 2 games.  This Bortles guy might be for real.

New England Patriots -14 v. Tennessee Titans
If you were an emerging young quarterback, would you want Belichick to game plan against you?  This game could be fairly close, but a late turnover by Mariota leads to a Patriots score which covers.

Carolina Panthers -4 at New York Giants
Cold and windy in New Jersey today, and the popular pick seems to be that the Giants are going to win outright.  But it is windy, and I trust Cam Newton's strong arm over Eli Manning's in weather conditions.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Washington Racists
My inability to understand the Racists is well documented, and the Bills are on the road.  But consider this, the Redskins are 1 of their last 6 in covering the spread the week after a win,  Plus, when Washington wins, Marcus will again thank me for being completely oblivious in my picks in the Washington games.  Karlos Williams returns today, giving Buffalo a nice 1-2 running attack with LeSean McCoy.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some.  Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.

Seattle Seahawks -14 v. Cleveland Browns
So I have picked 4 road favorites already, I might as well make it two double digit favorites as well.  Seattle is clicking, and the Browns are the Browns.

Denver Broncos +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, Pittsburgh's offense with Roethlisberger, Williams, Brown, Bryant, Wheaton and Miller have been amazing since Roethlisberger returned from injury, but Denver leads the NFL in total defense at 272.5 yards per game and scoring defense at 17.3 points per game.

Miami Dolphins +1 at San Diego Chargers
When two really bad teams play each other, I'll take the points, even if it is only 1.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 at San Francisco 49ers
Listen, I realize that Alabama quarterbacks haven't won in the NFL since Ken Stabler (editors note:  not fact-checked), but McCarron looked pretty good throwing the ball after being thrust into last week's game.  With a week of practice, and with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert to catch passes, could he actually win?

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I might as well go for broke and make it 6 road favorites.  I really, really wanted to pick Philadelphia here, as the home team in the prime time game getting points, but I just don't trust Chip Kelly.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Not an exciting Monday night game at all, and that is a shame on Christmas Week.  I think the best game on Monday is going to be the Miami Beach Bowl between Western Kentucky and South Florida (which is not in Miami Beach, or even in South Florida).

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some.  Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.

I was deciding between this game, and Denver +6 at Pittsburgh.  The smarter play between two road teams would be to select the team receiving points, especially one with a defense as tough as Denver's.  However, I could see a scenario where Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown, and I really do not see Oakland in this game, so Green Bay it is.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Year-to-Date Record: 107-94-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 11-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $280
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,295