I had a decent week last week Not amazing, but a winning week. That was two in a row. A really good week this week will put me in great spirits heading into Christmas.
The NFL has already played 2 games this week, and I was conversing on Facebook with longtime reader Brent Bellinger, so he can vouch that I made picks prior to kickoff of those games. Not that one win and push is much to brag about, but I strive to keep things accurate.
As a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
Just FYI - This week's games were really tough for me. A large number of them I bounced back-and-forth before settling on my decision.
Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
If only Winston showed up earlier.
New York Jets -3 at Dallas Cowboys
I try to avoid road favorites, but this one involved Matt Cassell. How was I to know Kellen Moore would become involved?
Chicago Bears + 5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears have kept most of their games close this year, so 5 1/2 seems like a lot of points. Plus, there is an actual chance of the Bears winning, so this is one underdog I feel comfortable selecting.
Baltimore Ravens + 6 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
This is not even close to the Ravens team we expected to see, but they play every game close, are at home, and getting almost a touchdown. I feel the Chiefs should still win, but not by that much. Plus, Lamarr Houston is out of the game, so it will be more difficult for the Chiefs to mount a huge pass rush, on which their defense relies.
Houston Texans + 1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This is for the AFC South lead. That is right, your read that correctly. The winner of this battle of 6-7 Titans will be in first in the AFC South. And to think of all of the vitriol us wannabe commentators have reserved for the NFC East. Texans defense makes a couple of more plays.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are reeling, having lost 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8. The Jaguars are 1 game out of first, and are suddenly an offensive juggernaut having scored 51 and 39 in their last 2 games. This Bortles guy might be for real.
New England Patriots -14 v. Tennessee Titans
If you were an emerging young quarterback, would you want Belichick to game plan against you? This game could be fairly close, but a late turnover by Mariota leads to a Patriots score which covers.
Carolina Panthers -4 at New York Giants
Cold and windy in New Jersey today, and the popular pick seems to be that the Giants are going to win outright. But it is windy, and I trust Cam Newton's strong arm over Eli Manning's in weather conditions.
Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Washington Racists
My inability to understand the Racists is well documented, and the Bills are on the road. But consider this, the Redskins are 1 of their last 6 in covering the spread the week after a win, Plus, when Washington wins, Marcus will again thank me for being completely oblivious in my picks in the Washington games. Karlos Williams returns today, giving Buffalo a nice 1-2 running attack with LeSean McCoy.
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some. Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.
Seattle Seahawks -14 v. Cleveland Browns
So I have picked 4 road favorites already, I might as well make it two double digit favorites as well. Seattle is clicking, and the Browns are the Browns.
Denver Broncos +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, Pittsburgh's offense with Roethlisberger, Williams, Brown, Bryant, Wheaton and Miller have been amazing since Roethlisberger returned from injury, but Denver leads the NFL in total defense at 272.5 yards per game and scoring defense at 17.3 points per game.
Miami Dolphins +1 at San Diego Chargers
When two really bad teams play each other, I'll take the points, even if it is only 1.
Cincinnati Bengals -6 at San Francisco 49ers
Listen, I realize that Alabama quarterbacks haven't won in the NFL since Ken Stabler (editors note: not fact-checked), but McCarron looked pretty good throwing the ball after being thrust into last week's game. With a week of practice, and with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert to catch passes, could he actually win?
Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I might as well go for broke and make it 6 road favorites. I really, really wanted to pick Philadelphia here, as the home team in the prime time game getting points, but I just don't trust Chip Kelly.
New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Not an exciting Monday night game at all, and that is a shame on Christmas Week. I think the best game on Monday is going to be the Miami Beach Bowl between Western Kentucky and South Florida (which is not in Miami Beach, or even in South Florida).
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some. Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.
I was deciding between this game, and Denver +6 at Pittsburgh. The smarter play between two road teams would be to select the team receiving points, especially one with a defense as tough as Denver's. However, I could see a scenario where Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown, and I really do not see Oakland in this game, so Green Bay it is.
Year-to-Date Record: 107-94-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 11-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $280
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,295
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