Picks of the Week

A pathetically average week, one in which I lost, but not too bad.  Two last minutes scores turned wins into pushes.  I am hoping that by putting my pics in on Thursday, and not rushing through them on Sunday morning might help.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +8 at New England Patriots
Thursday games are tough, but since Miami is finally playing like a lot of people thought they could play this year, I think they can keep this close.  The Patriots last week just decided not to run at all for the entire game, with Tom Brady as the team's leading rusher on 3 carries, so they might try a game where they do nothing but run.  That could prove difficult against an emerging Dolphins defensive line.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Minnesota Vikings
Finally the Bears get a home game on Halloween weekend (they have had byes the past few years).  Why is this important?  They get to wear their home alternate orange jerseys!

Detroit Lions +5 at Kansas City Chiefs
I cannot figure this game out.  When that happens, I'll take the points.  No Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs, and seemingly not much other offense either, so it will be tough to outscore Detroit by more than 5.  At some point, the Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection has to have a good game, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is no longer red-hot, and is struggling offensively - with the singular exception of Devonta Freemen, who is nursing a bit of a hamstring.  Tampa's defense, led by Lavonte David, should keep this game close.  I still like the Falcons to win, but not to cover.

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. San Diego Chargers
Both teams have been extremely disappointing.  I take the Ravens on the basis that every game they have lost has been extremely close, and they deserve a break or two to win one at home.  By 4.

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
So I am selecting a road favorite that is also a west coast team traveling east for the 1:00 game; however, (1) It is against Cleveland; and (2) they do save an hour as daylight savings time ends.

Tennessee Titans pick 'em at Houston Texans
The Texans are awful, and Tennessee is not much better.  I just think something weird is going to happen in this game whereas the Texans are going to need a backup quarterback given that Mallett is gone.  Plus, can Mettenberger make enough plays?

New York Giants +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
What a difference a division makes.  The Giants are 4-3, but in first place, while the Saints are 3-4 and in third place.  If the Giants offensive line can hold up, they should be able to at least keep this game close, while Drew Brees is due for a 2 or 3 interception game.

Cincinnati Bengals pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are trying to keep themselves in the AFC North race, and a victory will pull them within one game of the Bengals.  However, Cincinnati's defense can shut down the Steelers' offense, whereas Pittsburgh's defense can only hope to contain Cincinnati's offense, which has multiple playmakers.

St. Louis Rams -8 v. San Francisco 49ers
TODD GURLEY!!!  Why have more people not been talking about a RGIII/Colin Kaepernick trade.  A change of scenery could do both players and teams a tremendous amount of good.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
A second road favorite, but this is a team that can legitimately contend this year.  We have known about their defense (Wilkerson/Richardson/Revis), but their offense is now relatively explosive.  Chris Ivory is averaging just over 100 yards rushing per game, and Brandon Marshall is 10th in the league in receptions and 9th in receiving yards.  Oakland has been presently surprising as well, so it would not shock me if they won this game outright.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Dallas Cowboys
A third road favorite, but the Cowboys are at 2-4 and lost 4 straight games.  Seattle is not the team it has been, with problems all along the offensive line.  The Cowboys, behind Greg Hardy, did put a lot of pressure on Tom Brady two weeks ago.  But, Dallas still lost that game 30-6.

Green Bay -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Another road favorite (God I hate these weeks), but as good as Denver's defense is, Green Bay's offense is just that much better.  Primarily, Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback to fear that Peyton Manning used to be, using the entire field and the entire offensive roster to spread things - and the defense - around.

Carolina Panthers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis seems like it is about ready to implode.  Carolina;s defense is keeping the scores low enough (not giving up just over 18 points a game) so that one big drive, or one big Cam Newton to Greg Olsen connection wins the game.  I have said that before, but that formula has been working.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis might be the best pair of ILBs in the league.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are trying to keep themselves in the AFC North race, and a victory will pull them within one game of the Bengals.  However, Cincinnati's defense can shut down the Steelers' offense, whereas Pittsburgh's defense can only hope to contain Cincinnati's offense, which has multiple playmakers.

For my big bet, I would always prefer selecting a home team, either receiving points or not giving up too many points.  None of those games give me confidence this week, so I select Cincinnati on the road, not giving up any points.  The other teams I thought about selecting here were Tampa (receiving points, but on the road), Baltimore, (the closest to what I wanted), Arizona (road team giving points), and Green Bay (road team giving points).  So, Cincinnati it is.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Year-to-Date: 56-45-4
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 6-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($120)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,385