Picks of the Week - Conference Championships

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

This Kansas City offense has been outrageous in the playoffs, averaging 42 points per game, and you have to go back to week 13 to find them scoring less than 28.  Yes, they lost to the Bengals in Week 17, but the Chiefs had already clinched by that point, and the Bengals were fighting for their playoff lives.

Kansas City Chiefs -$350 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $350 to win $100).

The money line on Cincinnati (+$290) is almost enough to make me hedge my bet, but this is Kansas City's third year in a row in the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that the Rams have been waiting for all season.  They picked up Odell Beckham, Jr. and Von Miller for the Super Bowl, not just for the regular season.  Yes, San Francisco has won 6 in a row against the Rams, but not 7.

Los Angeles Rams -$170 v. San Francisco 49ers

I had the Rams against Kansas City in the Super Bowl since the very beginning of the season.  No reason to change now.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46

I can't pick ALL overs.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

This will be a scoring bonanza.

Last Week's Record:  7-5

Playoff Record:  17-12-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-141-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($335)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($1)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($341)  

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Picks of the Week - Wildcard Round Edition

Always hard to pick the last week of the season, when you are unsure who is actually going to play an entire game (looking at you Aaron Rodgers), but given how the season started, a pretty strong finish overall (thank you weeks 15 and 16)!  Now it's the wildcard round, and I wll pick the games - using the spread and the money line - and the over/under.  Here we go ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I really wanted to pick the Raiders here, but then I remembered they will be travelling on a short week, and the loss of defensive tackle Darius Philon might open some things up for Joe Mixon, giving Joe Burrow the opportunity for some play-action passes, and not just heaving it to J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Cincinnati Bengals -$240 v. Las Vegas Raiders (Bet $240 to Win $100)

As much as I wanted to select the Raiders with the spread, I always thought the Bengals were going to win outright.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals Over 48

Neither team is great getting off the field on 3rd down, and the Raiders are 26th in the league in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills -4 v. New England Patriots

The Bills are just better.  New England's victory over Buffalo this year came in a weird windstorm that resulted in New England passing 3 times the entire game.  In the week 16 rematch, the Bills won 33-21 in New England.  Plus New England is away on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -$210 v. New England Patriots (Bet $210 to Win $100)

Obviously if I am going to give points, I am goint to think the favorite will win outright.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills OVER 43

It is going to be COLD tonight, but hardly any wind and no precipitation.  Bills score 30+ themselves.

Philadelphia Eagles +8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last 10 games, including last week's loss where they started nobody.  This game is going to be wierd as a cold front should be going through Tampa during the game.  Temperatures in the 60s isn't exactly cold, but alomst 20 mph winds and basically 100% chance of rain, will affect this game.  The Eagles have been running the ball extremely well and finished best in the league.  Tampa Bay was 26th in rushing, but playoff Lenny will be back.  Except, now Playoff Lenny is out, as is Ronald Jones II.  At least Giovanni Bernard is fresh.

Philadelphia Eagles + $320 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $320)

Now, I don't actually think Philadelphia is going to win, but I also don't want to take the -$400 money line on Tampa.  If the Eagles cover the spread, then these two bets are basically a wash, which I could live with.  But, given the likely weather, this is a upset upon which I am willing to take a chance.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46

The weather.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that I don't want to touch, but for both of my fans out there, I will.  So, this is just a guess on a whim, but I feel like the comeback last week by the 49ers to secure the playoff spot might just have been too much for them to be ready this week, especially facing the number 1 offense in the NFL (total and scoring).  Although San Francisco's defense has been stellar (5th overall, 6th passing defense, 7th rushing defense, T9th in scoring defense), they just might have used up everything they had last week.  Again, just a hunch.

Dallas Cowboys -$160 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $160 to win $100)

I would have been more enticed by the money line for San Francisco if I could have gotten more than just +$140.  Dallas to win.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboy OVER 49 1/2

Could be a 31-24 type game.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers shouldn't even be in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)

Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 45 1/2

Kansas City may do this on their own.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is better than the Los Angeles in almost every statistic - 6th in total offense (to 9th), 11th in scoring offense (to 17th), 10th in total defense (to 17th), and T9th in scoring defense (to T15th).  But, the Rams beat the Cardinals in Week 13 at home 30-23 (although Kyler Murray threw for 383).  It will be hard for Arizona to replicate those offensive numbers without DeAndre Hopkins, and LA has Aaron Darnold, who might be the best player in the entire NFL.  Hopefully the Rams learned from the second half of San Francico that they have to play 100% for 100% of the game.

Los Angeles Rams -$190 v. Arizona Cardinals (Bet $190 to win $100)

This game is a potential NFC championship game if DeAndre Hopkins was playing.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams OVER 49

I sure am excited about seeing a potential Monday night shootout!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)

Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.

Easiest bet on the board in a long - long time.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  143-129

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($340) 

Picks of the Week

 

A setback last week, but here's hoping we can finish the regular season strong (although a really bad start last night).  I am rushed for time this morning, so no analysis, just picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 at Denver Broncos

Philadelphia Eagles +6 v. Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Chicago Bears

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Washington Football Team -7 at New York Giants

Tennessee Titans -11 at Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Green Bay Packers -3 at Detroit Lions

New York Jets +16 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Miami Dolphins +6 v. New England Patriots

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  136-120

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($200)

Picks of the Week

 

A second amazing week - IN A ROW!!!  After consecutive 11-5 weeks, what do we think is going to happen this week?  It doesn't seem like there are as many Covid issues, so back to normal could mean back to reality (back to life) for me.  Let's hope not and keep this winning streak going!  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Wouldn't it be just like Matt Nagy to win his last home game, and convincingly, with Andy Dalton at QB, and then use that to try to leverage another season as head coach?  Plus, a Bears win simultaneously helps the Giants with their own first round pick, then knocks down the one they picked up from the Bears in the Justin Field draft-day trade.  Unfortunately, the converse is also true.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes the Dolphins have a 7-game winning streak, but those have come against the depleted Saints, Jets twice, Giants, Panthers, Texans, and their one good win, the Ravens.  Tennessee NEEDS this game to stay in the hunt for the 1-seed and home-field advantage in the AFC.

Buffalo Bills -14 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This pick seems preposterous given the huge number, but hear me out here .... The Bills have scored at least 27 in the last 3 games, including 31+ in the last two games.  Atlanta is giving up the 4th most points in the NFL, whereas the Bills are the third stingiest defense in points allowed - plus 1st in total defense, and 1st in passing defense.  Atlanta is also near the bottom in points scored.  Still a scary number, though.

Jacksonville Jaguars +16 1/2 at New England Patriots

This line is just WAY too high.  New England still wins easily.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, Carson Wentz has cleared protocols, and yes, Jonathan Taylor is the MVP of the NFL this year, but players have been sluggish coming out of Covid and the Raiders NEED this game more than the Colts, so they will be desperate to keep it close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 1/2 at New York Jets

Yes big line, and yes Tampa Bay is playing on the road, BUT, dare we say it, this team functions best when Antonio Brown is in the lineup, and the offense should be clicking today.  Look for a big game from Brown and a touchdown for Cameron Brate.

Baltimore Ravens +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

Lamar Jackson MAY play.  Not sure if he is ready, and the Rams are solidly better, especially since integrating Sony Michel into the offense.  But, it is a west coast team traveling east to play the 1:00 game, so I am taking the points.  Not sure why as all of the traditional gambling rules have gone haywire this year, but there it is.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Philadelphia just beat the Football Team by 10 two weeks ago, and despite now travelling to Raljon, Maryland, Philadelphia has improved and Washington has digressed since then.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

This should be the most exciting game of the day, with both QBs (Mahomes and Burrow) just throwing the ball all over the field.  Plus, Kansas City's pass defense is 25th in the league and Cincinnati's is worse, at 29th.  Should be a high-scoring affair, and in a shootout, give me Mahomes.

Denver Broncos +7 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a grind, meaning I will take the touchdown and the hook.  I still expect the Chargers to win, but maybe 20-17.

Houston Texans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Houston's has scored over 30 in the past 2 games, putting up 30 against the Jaguars and 41 against the Chargers in consecutive wins.  With the unknown that is Trey Lance most likely manning the helm for the Niners offense, Houston should be able to take some of the things they learned in the past few weeks to keep this relatively close.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has lost two in a row and is reeling, and although they do have a number of offensive weapons, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins hurts everyone.  Dallas is crusing, having won 4 in a row, and if they get up on Arizona early, they could force a turnover for their 10th non-offensive touchdown of they year.

 

Detroit Lions +8 at Seattle Seahawks

Once again, Dan Campbell said that nobody was going to play harder than his Lions, regardless of talent, and he was right.  Seattle will be looking for some redemption having lost to the lowly Bears last week but, even if they win, this game will be close.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The wheels have fallen off the Carolina Panthers season, having lost 5 in a row.  Make it six.

Green Bay Packers -13 v. Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Rodgers versus ... Sean Mannion?  Really?  He is in the league?

Cleveland Browns -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Nobody will be able to rescue Ben Roethlisberger's final home game at Heinz Field.  Despite American Underdog playing in movie theaters, most of the time there is no storybook ending.

Big Bet:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Philadelphia just beat the Football Team by 10 two weeks ago, and despite now travelling to Raljon, Maryland, Philadelphia has improved and Washington has digressed since then.

I hate picking divisional road teams, much less favorites, as my Big Bet, but this seems the most obvious choice, since I don't want to go with Detroit as my Big Bet two weeks in a row (although successful last week).

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  130-110

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $465