Picks of the Week - Conference Championship Weekend

Still positive for the playoffs is a good thing.  Trying to determine which prop bets might be worth taking in the Super Bowl is in the not-too-distant future.  But, what we have today is the most important weekend in terms of quality of football, as today should bring out the best games of the season.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut.  Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage.  Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense.  Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary.  Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).

Green Bay Packers -185 Money Line over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $185 to win $100)

Primarily for all the same reasons as above.  If I feel that Green Bay is going to cover the spread, I should take them outright, escpecially since +$165 is the bests number I can get for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers OVER 52

Both teams should score, a lot.  Especially if Green Bay takes an early 10-14 point lead and Tampa goes to an almost exclusive passing game.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is the wildcard.  Even though he cleared the concussion protocol, he still has the turf toe which would limit his mobility.  Plus, Kansas City has not won a game by more than 6 points since November 1, and that was the New York Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs -175 Money Line over Buffalo Bills (Bet $175 to win $100)

I still feel that the Chiefs will win this game.  This is their third straigh AFC Championship game, and the Bills still have to show that they are ready to get over the hurdle that is the Chiefs.  Kansas City did beat the Billis 26-17 back in Week 6, so the Bills cannot sneak up on Kansas City.  Given that both defenses are relatively mediocre, they will likely determine the outcome of this game.  Buffalo's defense is 13th against the pass and in total defense, 16th in scoring defense, and 17th in rushing defense.  Kansas City's defense is 10th in scoring defense, 14th against the pass, 15th in total defense, but 21st in rushing defense.  This should be a great game.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2.

Despite the previous 26-17 meeting between the two teams, this game should hit the over.  As mentioned above, both defenses are capable of making big plays, but are otherwise mediocre.  The offenses, however, are anything but.  Kansas City is only 16th in rushing offense, but 6th in scoring offense, 3rd in third down conversion percentasge, and 1st in passing yards and total offense.  Buffalo is very similar, in that it is only 20th in rushing offense, but 4th in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 2nd in scoring offense and 1st in third down conversion percentage.  If both teams play well, this should be high-scoring.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut.  Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage.  Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense.  Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary.  Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).

This is difficult, as the overs seem pretty good bets as well.  Despite the allegiance that many officials seem to have given Tom Brady during his career, this is Aaron Rodgers' year.

Last Week's Record:  4-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  6-7-1

Year-to-Date Record:  133-133-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $110

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $130

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($995) 

Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs

A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important.  And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations.  I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

I dub this game, the game of three Aarons:  Rodgers, Donald and Jones.  The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2

This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect.  But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all.  So, I am picking the under.  A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted.  That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense).  This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL).  But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2

I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL.  Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year.  Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game?  No?  I thought so.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57

Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24.  That ballpark puts me in the over territory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss.  Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins.  Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively.  That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate).  If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense).  But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2

Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense).  I have to take the over on this

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.

Last Week's Record:  2-3-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  2-3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  129-129-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $20

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105) 

Picks of the Week - Super Wild Card Weekend

 

As I predicted, week 17 killed me, especially since none of us would predict Doug Pederson would pull Jalen Hurts for Nathan Sudfield.  This is why we should never bet Week 17, except that I have fans that expect if from me.  Hopefully the playoffs bring me good look.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Look, Buffalo wins this game, but the Indianapolis defense is legit (2nd in rushing defense and 7th in total defense).  Buffalo wins because they are 3rd in passing offense and Indianapolis is 20th in passing defense, but this still means that this game will be close.  Primarily because of Johnathan Taylor going aginst a middling 17th ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo wins by 3.

Los Angeles Rams + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

A second straight game where I take the points with the visiting team.  But, this is not your normal visiting team.  The Rams have the best defense in the NFL (3rd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing defene, scoring defense and total defense).  Jalen Ramsey can lock down DK Metcalf, and Aaron Donald is the best player in the NFL.  Seattle may win this game, but it will be super close.

Washington Football Team +8 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

My third straight game where I take the points.  Tom Brady has been horrible in night games, and given that he is not mobile, the Washington defensive line, with four first round draft picks (Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Marquez Sweat) is going to give the immobile Brady trouble.  If Alex Smith was healthy, I would predict Washington to win this game outright, but given that he isn't, they lose by a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry.  The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens.  In short, I'll take the points.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This is not a homer bet.  The Saints win this game.  But, this spread is way too high, especially given that Alvin Kamara hasn't been able to practice since last week due to Covid protocols.  The Saints average 30 points per game, and the Bears average giving up 23, well within the point spread.  This game screams back door cover with a late Allen Robinson touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Cleveland Browns

Well, I have to pick one favorite, right?  And, I normally would have selected Cleveland in this game as they are playing really well going into the playoffs.  But, they just barely beat Pittsburgh last week with the Steelers starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and now, head coach Kevin Stefanski is out due to Covid protocols.  Steelers roll.

  

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry.  The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens.  In short, I'll take the points.

Give me points at home in the playoffs!

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  127-126-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1125)

Picks of the Week - End of Regular Season

 

So a bad penultimate week wipes out the rest of the winnings I had accumulated from the rest of the year.  But, at least we have a last week where I have no idea what to do due to all of the players resting, the Covid list, and teams being out of the playoff race.  Ouch.  Never good to rely on week 17, which is why fantasy leagues stopped playing all 17 weeks about a decade and a half ago.  Oh well, I will give it a shot.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins -2 at Buffalo Bills

How on earth are we starting with a road favorite in an intradivisional game when the home team is clearly the better squad and the visiting team is quarterbacked by a rookie?  Because we do not know which of the Bills players will play, and for how long.  Last year in this situation (locked into a playoff spot) the starters played about a quarter.  Although not locked into an actual spot, they are locked into either the 2 or 3 seed, and with Pittsburgh being so close relatively to Buffalo, no fans in the stands, and an additional playoff team meaning the 2 seed does not receive a bye, there is virtually no difference between the two seeds.  So, I predict Buffalo does not play a lot of its key players any significant amount of time, and Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa plays just well enough for the Dolphins to win and make the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Hooray, another intradivisional road favorite, and this time a double digit favorite.  But, Baltimore needs this win to qualify for the playoffs (Baltimore could lose and still make it with help), and Cincinnati has a chance to select 3rd in the 2021 NFL draft (right now they are 4th).  Cincinnati will need that third pick to select Penei Sowell, the behemoth tackle from Oregon in order to protect Joe Burrow in the future.

Cleveland Browns -10 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Oh great, another double digit intradivisional favorite.  At least it is a home game, right?  Well, two words - Mason Rudolph.  A better bet is how long until Myles Garrett sacks him?

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Detroit Lions

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite!  (And yes, I am going to find something to complain about with each selection.)  But, the Lions have phoned in the end of this season, losing by 68 points combined in their last 3 games.

New York Jets +3 at New England Patriots

I cannot believe that I am picking the Jets (for the second week in a row).  But, they are actually playing much better than the Patriots.  I wonder which quarterback Belichick would like to draft (Zach Wilson, Kyle Trask or Mac Jones?)

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at New York Giants

Can you believe anybody picking the Cowboys this year?  Well, I have to in this game.  They are on a 3-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins.  And, the winner of this game will win the NFC East and make the playoffs provided that Philadelphia defeats the Washington Football Team.

Atlanta Falcons + 6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is 22nd in pass defense and Atlanta is 5th in passing offense.  Problem is Atlanta has lost 4 in a row and I don't trust them.  For a silver lining their losses have been by 3 (to KC), 4 (to Tampa Bay), 3 (to Los Angeles Chargers), and 5  (to New Orleans), so they have been keeping games close.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears offense has been playing much better, and even moved the ball well against Green Bay 5 weeks ago.  But, in that game the defense had no answers whatsoever for Aaron Rodgers, and nothing about this team shows me they have the capability to do that.  Add that to the fact that Green Bay is fighting for the number 1 overall seed in the NFC (and a bye week), and Green Bay wins this game, despite the Bears having the ability to clinch a playoff berth with a win (or a Cardinals loss - more on that later).  Man, I hate that the Bears are in this position.

Carolina Panthers +6 v. New Orleans Saints

The Saints will be playing this game without any of its normal running backs due to Alvin Kamara testing postive for Covid-19.  Why does that affect the remaining running backs?  Because, just like the Denver Broncos several weeks ago, the rest of the position is out due to being in close contact with Kamara.  New Orleans' problem is that since Kamara tested positive, he would not be eligible to play until next Sunday (if he experiences no symptoms since the testing), meaning he would miss a Saturday playoff game.  New Orlenans is just going to try to get through this game.  Teddy Two Gloves is looking to solidify his spot as starting quarterback for Carolina for next year.  I hate picking against the obviously better squad.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Ugh, another double digit favorite.  At least it is a home game.  But, Jacksonville showed me absolutely nothing last week that says that they could stop anyone.

Tennessee Titans -7 at Houston Texans

Another road intradivisional favorite.  I must be a masochist.  But, Tennessee is fighting for its playoff life (Tennessee, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Clevleand and Miami are fighting for 4 spots), and that motivation should be more than enough against a Texans squad that elevated 2 offensive linemen from the practice squad.  DeShaun Watson has had a helluva season, though.  I am serious, check it out.  He has the second highest QB score from ProFootballFocus (behind Aaron Rodgers).

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Kansas City Chiefs

I do not expect the Kansas City starters to play very much at all.  If they do, then this is a bad pick.  Damn these week 17 games.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I have no idea what is going to happen in this game, so give me the points.

Arizona Cardinals -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

So the winner of this game makes the playoffs.  In addition, the Rams make the playoffs with a loss if Green Bay defeats Chicago.  But, if the Rams lose, but Chicago wins, we would have a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot between Chicago, Arizona and the Rams, a tiebreaker that the Rams lose.  So, since both this game and the Bears-Green Bay start at 4:25, neither team will know the outcome of the other game - so at least that means they have to play hard.  But, the Rams will be without quarterback Jared Goff (injury) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (Covid-list).  Ordinarily, I would have faith in the best player in the NFL, Aaron Donald, but I have no idea what a John Wolford is.  My Bears are doomed.

Seattle Seahawks -7 at San Francisco 49ers

Another intradivisional road favorite.  This does not make me happy.  But, Seattles good offense (8th in total offense, 7th in scoring offense), is suddenly being accompanied by a newly transformed defense, having not given up 21 points since a week 11 win against the Cardinals.

Washington Football Team -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington wins and they are in the playoffs.  Lose and they are out - that simple.  The Eagles are so fractured that Carson Wentz is not even going to dress tonight.  Alex Smith is.  And, instead of complaining, I will just be happy that I get to type "Washington Football Team".

  

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at New York Giants

Can you believe anybody picking the Cowboys this year?  Well, I have to in this game.  They are on a 3-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins.  And, the winner of this game will win the NFC East and make the playoffs provided that Philadelphia defeats the Washington Football Team.

Dallas is actually playing very well lately.  I look for them to keep it up and then watch the Sunday night game between Washington and Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  5-11

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  120-115-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($875)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($670)