And this week we should have some more phenomenal games. In the NFC we have 3 western division teams, which have been the class of the conference all year, and the upstart cardiac Chicago Bears, who get to host a game in 20 degree temperatures! In the AFC, we have one of the best defenses we have ever seen (Houston), one of the best players we have ever seen (Allen), and two teams that are way more than the sum of their parts (Denver and New England). Let's get to the games!
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Everything about this game screams "Broncos!" They are coming off a bye and Buffalo is on a short week having played a tough game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The Broncos are the number 1 seed in the AFC. And to top it all off, the money has overwhelming come in on Denver so far as this spread started with Buffalo -1 1/2. But, It is hard to look at these games and see that Denver is the better team. Denver's strength is its defense, where it finished 4th overall. But Buffalo's defense finished 7th overall, giving up only 3 yards more per game. And, Buffalo has the much - MUCH - better offense (3rd overall and 4th in scoring versus Denver's 12th overall and 14th in scoring). And who do you trust more to make plays - Josh Allen or Bo Nix?
Buffalo Bills EVEN Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $100) at Denver Broncos
This line also opened with Buffalo being -112, so the money is definitely coming in on the Broncos. But, I don't follow early money; I follow late money, and I suspect the late money will start coming in on the Bills. For all of the reasons stated above, and because Buffalo has the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL, I think the Bills will not only cover, but win outright.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 1/2
I mentioned above that the Bills have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL, and relying on a rushing game takes time off the clock - and lessens possessions. Add to that fact that Denver has the second-best defense against the run in the NFL and this game is going to be a slog.
San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks
This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers. But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable. Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points. Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025). Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket. Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.
San Francisco 49ers +270 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $270) at Seattle Seahawks
It is one thing to take the points in this game, but the Moneyline? This is purely a numbers pick. Seattle is at -340 right now, meaning I would have to be $340 to win $100, so the ML spread is about $610, so I am taking this bet knowing Seattle is likely to win, but taking a low-risk flyer for some actual money.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45
Did you see the last score of 13-3 just two weeks ago?
Houston Texans +3 1/2 at New England Patriots
Yes New England will be at home in inclement weather, but it isn't like Houston has a high-flying offense. They win with tough - and I mean TOUGH - defense (number 1 in the NFL in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense). New England is no slouch in that department either (8th in Total defense and 4th in scoring defense), but their offense is way more likely to be affected by the weather than Houston's. Add that to the fact that Houston has probably forgotten how to lose (as they haven't lost since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 on November 2, and I will gladly take points here.
Houston Texans +150 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $150) at New England Patriots
Yes, the underdogs are flying here this weekend, as it seems that we have the weakest group of hosts in recent memory for the divisional round. Honestly, the smart play if probably a New England victory here, but until Houston loses, I am going to keep taking them.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2
And a third straight under. The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination. Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!
Chicago Bears +4 v. Los Angeles Rams
So I am taking all 4 underdogs, even though in this game the underdog is the home team. The Bears, even in defeat, have done nothing but keep final games close. Add to that the fact that the game will be played in about 21 degree weather with wind, and you can rest assured that both teams will rely on their run games, which has a tendency to keep games close.
Chicago Bears +172 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $172) v. Los Angeles Rams
If I am going to go all the way with underdogs, I might has well go ALL THE WAY with underdogs!
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears OVER 48 1/2
This bet makes no sense, even to me and I am making it, but I cannot select 4 underdogs AND 4 unders.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks
This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers. But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable. Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points. Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025). Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket. Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.
This game just has to be close, right?
Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2
And a third straight under. The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination. Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!
I am all-in on this Houston Defense. One of the best three or four I have ever seen. 1985/1986 Bears; Early 2000s Ravens, the Tampa Bay Super Bowl winner (not with Brady), and this one. Scary good.
Last Week Record: 12-6
Last Week Big Bet: 1-1
Playoff Record: 12-6
Playoff Big Bet: 1-1
Year-to-Date Record: 138-148-3
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-13
Last Week Winnings (Losses): $611.80
Playoff Winnings (Losses): $611.80
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,488.20)
No comments:
Post a Comment