At one point in time late in the third quarter of the one o'clock window, I was 6-1 for that segment of games (8-3 overall) including winning my big bet. I finished that segment 3-4, and losing the big bet. I hate this year.
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Detroit Lions
The once-vaunted Lions are 2-3 since their bye week. Their 17th ranked pass defense now faces the number 1 passing offense in the NFL, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing like world-beaters. Plus, this isn't a short week for either team.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
It is well past the time to jump off the Ravens are Super Bowl favorites/world beaters and jump on the I'll take points when playing the Ravens bandwagon. Could be lots of points with the 23rd (Ravens) and 28th (Steelers) defenses.
Atlanta Falcons +7 v. Seattle Seahawks
I HATE this pick, but Seattle is playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, so there is at least that opportunity for Atlanta to cover.
Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I am not sure either of these teams can score 4 1/2 points total, much less 4 1/2 points more than the other team.
Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets
Although I do not like giving points on the road in an intra-divisional game, the Dolphins are playing like a real football team in having won two games in a row. The Jets actually beat the Falcons last week, but the Dolphins have looked better.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Tampa is getting back its weapons (Bucky Irving last week, Godwin maybe this week), and New Orleans may be missing Alvin Kamara and the shine to Tyler Shough may be losing its luster.
Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Getting points with a team that is playing better than its opponent and gets this game at home? Yes, please!
Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
What happened to the Vikings? Oh, quarterback play?! Where is Sam Darnold? Oh yeah, gone.
Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Joe Burrow is most definitely back, and the Bills have not looked good in over a month.
Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I love that my Bears are in first place in the entire NFC! That is absolutely amazing to me. But no, I don't think they are the best team in the NFC. But I think they can play to within a touchdown of absolutely anyone, especially now that Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are back, turning their secondary from a weakness into an absolute strength. Green Bay wins, but this game is close.
Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year. But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams. Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.
Arizona Cardinals +8 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have been hit-or-miss for about a month now, and Jacoby Brissett has a solid 97.4 quarterback rating, which might just lead to a closer-than-expected game. Add to that the fact that Marvin Harrison, Jr. might return to action for the Cardinals, and I will take the points at home in an intra-divisional game.
Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been struggling, losing 3 of their last 4 games, and now they are giving up points to the NFL's top-ranked defense in both Total Defense and Scoring Defense. And, with four wins in a row, and 5 in their last six games, Houston is looking like a playoff teams. I will take the points.
Los Angeles Chargers +2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I don't fully know what to make of this game with the possibility (likelihood?) that Justin Herbert will miss the game, but even with taking this into account the Eagles are the 24th ranked offense in the NFL, and the Chargers are the 2nd-ranked team in total offense. With those stats, I will take points at home, for sure.
Bye Weeks: Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year. But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams. Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.
At least if I lose this Big Bet then that means my fantasy teams will have flourished!
Last Week Record: 7-9
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 91-102-1
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-10
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,320)
