Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 16

 

Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say.  OUCH!  (Well, besides "OUCH").

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game.  BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules:  (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle.  So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick.  But see the above analysis.  I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close.  UGH!

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog.  Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury. 

 

Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns

Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL.  But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears.  Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!

 

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants

If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well.  Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense).  So, I'll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means.  Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1.  If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.

Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run?  I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.

New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills.  Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up.  The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh).  So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great.  Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 14

 

At one point in time late in the third quarter of the one o'clock window, I was 6-1 for that segment of games (8-3 overall) including winning my big bet.  I finished that segment 3-4, and losing the big bet.  I hate this year.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Detroit Lions

The once-vaunted Lions are 2-3 since their bye week.  Their 17th ranked pass defense now faces the number 1 passing offense in the NFL, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing like world-beaters.  Plus, this isn't a short week for either team.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is well past the time to jump off the Ravens are Super Bowl favorites/world beaters and jump on the I'll take points when playing the Ravens bandwagon.  Could be lots of points with the 23rd (Ravens) and 28th (Steelers) defenses.

Atlanta Falcons +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

I HATE this pick, but Seattle is playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, so there is at least that opportunity for Atlanta to cover.  

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I am not sure either of these teams can score 4 1/2 points total, much less 4 1/2 points more than the other team.

Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets

Although I do not like giving points on the road in an intra-divisional game, the Dolphins are playing like a real football team in having won two games in a row.  The Jets actually beat the Falcons last week, but the Dolphins have looked better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Tampa is getting back its weapons (Bucky Irving last week, Godwin maybe this week), and New Orleans may be missing Alvin Kamara and the shine to Tyler Shough may be losing its luster.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Getting points with a team that is playing better than its opponent and gets this game at home?  Yes, please!

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

What happened to the Vikings?  Oh, quarterback play?!  Where is Sam Darnold?  Oh yeah, gone.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow is most definitely back, and the Bills have not looked good in over a month.

Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers

Yes, I love that my Bears are in first place in the entire NFC!  That is absolutely amazing to me.  But no, I don't think they are the best team in the NFC.  But I think they can play to within a touchdown of absolutely anyone, especially now that Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are back, turning their secondary from a weakness into an absolute strength.  Green Bay wins, but this game is close.

Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year.  But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams.  Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.

Arizona Cardinals +8 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been hit-or-miss for about a month now, and Jacoby Brissett has a solid 97.4 quarterback rating, which might just lead to a closer-than-expected game.  Add to that the fact that Marvin Harrison, Jr. might return to action for the Cardinals, and I will take the points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been struggling, losing 3 of their last 4 games, and now they are giving up points to the NFL's top-ranked defense in both Total Defense and Scoring Defense.  And, with four wins in a row, and 5 in their last six games, Houston is looking like a playoff teams.  I will take the points.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I don't fully know what to make of this game with the possibility (likelihood?) that Justin Herbert will miss the game, but even with taking this into account the Eagles are the 24th ranked offense in the NFL, and the Chargers are the 2nd-ranked team in total offense.  With those stats, I will take points at home, for sure.

Bye Weeks:  Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year.  But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams.  Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.

At least if I lose this Big Bet then that means my fantasy teams will have flourished!

Last Week Record: 7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 91-102-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,320)