I followed up my worst week of the year with ... MY ABSOLUTE BEST. Seriously, a dream week. Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see. Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)
Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys
By now, this should be a familiar refrain: "Home Team on a Short Week!" But, we get to couple this one with another: "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!" And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.
Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
I do not want to make this pick. AT ALL! I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog. So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes. But, if I did, this would be THAT game.
Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!! And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is. (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?) But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring. So this game could be kept close for that reason alone.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row). But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing). So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.
Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win. The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.
New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns
Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.
Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season. The Cardinals, however, have not.
New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.
Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Another home intra-divisional underdog. Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often. It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.
Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.
New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!
Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.
San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears
Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game. And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.
Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons
Does anyone even care about this game? The Falcons probably don't.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!! And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is. (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?) But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring. So this game could be kept close for that reason alone.
This is A LOT of points. And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away. KC can keep it under two touchdowns!
Last Week Record: 12-4
Last Week Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11
Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985)
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