Picks of the Week

 

Happy New Year from South Ponte Vedra, Florida.  A little vacay, so probably not much analysis today - well, we will see when we get into it.  At the very least a bit rushed because games are today, which is awful for those in the playoff hunt, as it gives teams, like Miami and Denver, the knowledge of what they have to do given that Cincinnati plays first.  All of these games should be tomorrow.  But, oh well, I don't run things.  A bit of a so-so week as I finished with a winning record, but lost the big bet, so finished a bit in the negative.  And this week is a super crapshoot as some teams rest all of their best players, some will only play them a little bit, and most we will have no idea until it happens.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +20 at Baltimore Ravens

I cannot, in good conscience, but on a 20-point favorite.  Even if Bailey Zappe is starting for the other team.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay wins this, but I feel like they will be tentative not wanting ot invite injury into their playoff team.  Chicago only incentive is that a lot of players and coaches are playing and coaching for their jobs.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Most starters won't be playing for Philadelphia, but Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Gainwell have both proven themselves to be legitimate NFL players.

Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Other than last week's debacle, Carolina has been playing everybody close.  Atlanta technically has the potential of the playoffs, except that if Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead against the Saints, the deflation-factor could really come into play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are a M*A*S*H unit, and Tampa is on fire.  They will be a tough out for the Detroits, Minnesotas and Philadelphias of the NFC.  And, can somebody please tell me how Baker Mayfield was not selected to the Pro Bowl?  All due respect to Jayden Daniels.

Washington Commanders -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate selecting an intradivsional road favorite, but last week's decimation at the hands of the Eagles most likely broke the Cowboys.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Much like the Cowboys, the Colts suffered a horrible loss last week to the Giants, just ending their season.  Not much to play for at all.  I can't even believe the Colts are starting Joe Flacco.

Houston Texans +2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is actually getting points in this, which tells me that the bettors think they may not play their starters very long.  I hope that isn't true.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Buffalo has the 2-seed locked up, but hoping the starters jump to an early lead in the first half just because the team is so mad that they allowed New England to play them so close two weeks ago.

Kansas City Chiefs +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Broncos have to win to make the playoffs (they can also make it with both Cincinnati and Miami losses, and Cincinnati plays Saturday, so they will know), and Kansas City will not be playing its starters, but 10 1/2 points?  I reserve the right to change this bet if Cincinnati loses.  Otherwise, I absolutely hate this line.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

An absolute crapshoot of a pick based solely on Joshua Dobbs' athleticism.

Miami Dolphins +1 at New York Jets

Bad line here, because Aaron Rodgers would do something like win a game to push the Jets down in the draft order, only to end up leaving the team and/or retiring.  This line could change toward the Jets if Cincinnati wins on Saturday, and I reserve the right to change my pick if that occurrs.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

In most circumstances, the Rams are the picks in this game, except that Seattle needs this game, and the Rams plan to rest a lot of its players.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Jim Harbaugh never allows rest.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions

This whole year has been "Detroit this, Detroit that."  Minnesota has the opportunity to yank the #1 overall seed away from Detroit.  I don't know that they do that, but I think this game will be incredibly close, so I'll take the points.  The difference will be Minnesota's defense, 4th in third-down percentage, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd against the rush.

Big Bets:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

I hate picking a road team for the big bet, much less in an intra-divisional game.  But Cincinnati has a lot for which to play, and Burrow puts an exclamation point on what would ordinarily be an MVP season.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  127-119-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-8

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($360)

Picks of the Week

 

UGLY, UGLY, UGLY!!!  That is the only way to explain last week's results.  And this week is likely to be even worse with so many starters not even playing, some teams with incentives, and a lot with not.  Who even knows.  Prayers and luck this week, for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Baltimore Ravens

Yes, I know I should always pick the home team on a short week, but Pittsburgh needs a win to qualify for the playoffs - with some help - and Baltimore is sitting Lamar Jackson and other starters, and even playing Laquon Treadwell.

Indianapolis Colts +1 /2 v. Houston Texans

Both teams have something to play for, as the winner is in the playoffs, whereas the loser is not.  Can't take the visiting team on a short week in both games, and this game should be incredibly close.  Now if only Tyler Goodson holds onto the damn ball!!!  (Yes I know, it was thrown a bit behind him too.)

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

The winner of this game wins the NFC South at 8-8 IF Carolina manages to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so this game is important.  Sains have won 3 of their last 4, including defeating Tampa Bay last week; whereas the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4, including being destroyed by the Bears last week and a 9-7 loss to the hapless Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Simply put, there is just too much at stake for Jacksonville, as a win gives them the AFC South title, whereas a loss puts them out of the playoffs entirely.  Jacksonville defense has been horrid this year  (22nd overall and 27th against the pass), but Tennessee's offense has been equally putrid (27th overall and 28th passing).  With Trevor Lawrence and Will Levis both hobbling, could it come down to C.J. Beatherd v. Ryan Tannehill?  I think Calvin Ridley finally shows up, and the Jaguars win, even as favorites on the road.

Detroit Lions -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Does Dan Campbell strike you as someone that lets his foot off the gas?  Yeah, me neither.

New England -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at Carolina Panthers

This game is way too eeerily similar to the Jaguars situation.  Buccaneers win and their are the NFC South champions; lose and they go home.  Also playing the basement-dweller in their division.  I imagine that one of these two games is an upset, although I cannot pick either of them to happen.  Baker Mayfield rolls.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Jeff Driskel starting fot the Browns as Cleveland is stiting a number of its star players.  Jake Browning might be playing for a potential starting job on another team for next year, or at least a prime backup role on a squad with an oft-injured QB.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears are playing better than anybody, having won 5 of 7, and in those two losses had double-digit leads into the 4th quarter.  But, the Packers have the chance to make the playoffs.  And no matter how much ever Bears player and fan hates the Packers and would love to knock them out of the playoffs, Green Bay has much more incentive in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at New York Giants

God do I hate betting this many road intra-divisional favorites, but the Eagles NEED this.  Not so much for the playoffs or the divisional title (although a win with help could give them the latter), but they just need to play a good ball game.

Arizona Cardinals + 3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has just been playing too many close games.  Arizona has the 6th best rushing team in the NFL and Seattle is 30th against the rush.  James Conner and Michael Carter for the cover.

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Los Angeles Rams

Nobody is playing, so who cares.  I gotta hope the 49ers depth is better than the Rams depth.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Denver Broncos

This Raiders team has been playing inspired football under Antonio Pierce.  If they just had a talented quarterback.  I wonder if they would trade this year's, 2025's and 2026's firsts, this year's second, and next year's third for the number one overall pick?  Or, instead of 2026's first, throw in a player?

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We will have a Blaine Gabbert sighting!!!  Although to be honest, Kansas City hasn't been amazing even with Patrick Mahomes.  I'll take Easton Stick sounds like I am in a craft drink lounge.

Dallas Cowboys -13 at Washington Commanders

Too many points, on the road, in an intradivsional game - except, the Cowboys need this to win the division, and the Commanders aren't playing for anything, except for a trade with the Bears if they like Caleb Williams.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Miami Dolphins

I might as well keep the road favorites train rolling.  The Bills are the third-betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, and if they lose this game they miss the playoffs.  The Dolphins are without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, not to mention their rush edges Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb.

Big Bet:

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Had to select a home team, and at least this will give me a reason to watch this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-108-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $920