Well, last week was back to losing. My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year. And if you say you are not - you are lying!!! I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!! So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue: "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.
Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right? Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.
Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans
Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense). So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.
San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants
I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me: (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.
Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams. Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense. Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense). Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense. They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.
Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
F' it. Why not!
Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year. They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times. But they don't have those playmakers now. The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.
New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing. They really should just trade Maxx Crosby. the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds. I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)
New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.
Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week. Let's go ..... Buffalo!
Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders
Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.
Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.
Byes: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.
I didn't really know what to do here: Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road. So, I settled here.
Last Week Record: 5-8
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 54-67
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($545)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660)
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