Los Angeles Rams -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Ordinarily this spread would be much closer, as the NFL's 4th-ranked offense (Rams) challenges the 3rd-ranked defense (49ers). But, San Francisco is just missing too many players, and it is a short week.
Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 against Minnesota Vikings (in London)
The jet lag for the Browns could really be a problem, as Minnesota played in Dublin last week. But, Cleveland has the number 1 total defense in the NFL (4th against the pass and 1st against the rush), Quinshon Judkins could feast on the 25ht-ranked run defense, and maybe they get a boost from Dillon Gabriel's first start, much as the Giants did with Dart's first start last week.
Dallas Cowboys +1 at New York Jets
The Jets looked putrid last week at the Dolphins, and that was on Monday night, making this a short week for the Jets. Cowboys have the 5th highest scoring offense, and the best passing and total offense in the NFL. Now, there are a lot of injuries for the Cowboys, so this line has moved from -2 1/2 to +1. I'll take the points.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Philadelphia put together its best performance of the season last week against Tampa Bay, and they get the Broncos coming off a late Monday night game. Denver's offense is starting to click, but this is going to be a tough combo of playing the Eagles and off a short week, so I'll give the points.
Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Nothing about this pick makes any sense, I know. Lamar Jackson is doubtful at this time, so Cooper Rush will likely get the start. Rush has had some quality starts in the NFL, so he won't be rattled - even though Houston's defense - especially its pass rush - can be scary. But, the Ravens NEED this win in order to keep moving toward the playoffs and desperate teams sometimes play desperately. And that is easy to do when you have Derrick Henry, who should get 25 touches this game. But then, I see that the worst defense in the NFL will now be missing Kyle Hamilton, so I switched my pick.
New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. New York Giants
So the Jaxson Dart start was amazing last week - in terms of the Giants win. But, he didn't play that great (he played fine, great for a first start). But the injuries continue to mount as the Giants lost Malik Nabers for the season. Of more concern should be the 29th-ranked rush defense in trying to stop Alvin Kamara, who is likely auditioning for a trade with a playoff-contender.
Las Vegas Raiders +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This might be the game where the Colts come back down to earth, unless everybody was completely wrong about Daniel Jones and it was the team - and not him - that was the problem in New York. Colts may very well score enough points to win this game (they are 4th in scoring offense), but the Raiders may be learning how to use Ashton Jeanty enough to keep this under a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
Dolphins are on a short week, and lost Tyreek Hill for the season (although they may have discovered Malik Washington as an actual offensive weapon). Carolina is bad, but they actually give up less points than the Dolphins on the season. If only they could find a QB or a RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
I am taking the Buccaneers on the chance that Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving actually play (which is NOT a given). But that being said, Teddy Bridgewater is a solid back-up and Richaad White has run well in his opportunities so far this year. I think with more than a field goal, this is a solid pick regardless of Mayfield and Irving's status.
Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
So Arizona is without its top two backs in James Conner and Trey Benson. Won't matter as this Titans team is giving up 30 points per game and is last in the NFL in scoring.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
The Chargers are REALLY good this year. Their defense is 4th in Total Defense and 4th in Scoring Defense and the offense is 7th in Total Offense (5th in Passing Offense). Jayden Daniels returns, and that should be a spark for the Commanders, but they just aren't going to have enough to win this on the road.
Detroit Lions -10 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were drubbed by the Broncos on Monday night, and although double digits are a lot of points to give up in the NFL, this is a short week for Cincinnati. Detroit has scored the most points in the NFL.
New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills should win this game, especially with the 2nd-ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the NFL. But, Drake Maye is legitimate, and perhaps Trayveon Henderson can live up to some of h is preseason hype against the 31st ranked rushing defense. Buffalo goes to 5-0, but the Patriots keep it close.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense. But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense. KC cruises.
Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense. But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense. KC cruises.
This goes against every fiber of my being picking a team on the road giving up points as my Big Bet, but that thumping of the Ravens last week (and yes, I get it a lot of Ravens went down with injuries) showed me something, and that something coincided with the return of Xavier Worthy and Chris Jones.
Last Week Record: 7-9
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 28-36
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-3
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,505)
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