For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
A short week, plus Houston is 28th in the NFL in passing defense, which doesn't bode well against the number 1 passing offense in the league. And, Houston's offensive strength in running the ball - 7th in the NFL - but Tampa Bay's defense is 1st in rushing defense.
New England Patriots -6 v. Buffalo Bills
This line is begging for everyone to take the Bills, and in fact, they are, as the line has moved a full point since it opened at -7. That is the only reason that I am taking the Patriots, because there offense is not good right now, and the Bills defense is great. (3rd passing defense, 10th rushing defense, 2nd scoring defense and 3rd total defense). Unfortunately, Buffalo's offense is practically horrid (22nd in total offense and scoring offense).
San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Like the above, this line is screaming for action on the Rams. But, I will once again take the home team (third of three for Saturday's games), and run with it. Plus, San Fran needs to seriously bounce back from that lost to Atlanta last week.
Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, so maybe the Jaguars haven't given up as they beat the Raiders last week. But that was the Raiders - and Derek Carr. Atlanta has been playing well lately, having beat New Orleans and San Francisco in the past month.
Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
It sure seems as if Cleveland is imploding, doesn't it?
Carolina Panthers +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Cotls
I just think that the Panthers will get a jolt from new starting quarterback Will Grier. Can McCaffrey be any more dangerous than when the safeties have to actually protect against the deep ball, instead of cheating up to guard McCaffrey?
Miami Dolphins pick 'em v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals seem to want the number 1 pick more than the Dolphins do.
New York Jets +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I will take the points, any points, in this game, as we matchup the 30th and 31st ranked total offenses. YAWN!
New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The Saints are rolling, and although we never get the Titans enough credit, by rule I think they have to finish 8-8.
Washington Racists -1 v. New York Giants
Honestly, who cares?
Denver Broncos -7 v. Detroit Lions
A lot of teams would have lost to Kansas City in the snow last week. Against mediocre and bad teams, Drew Lock has looked pretty good, and that should continue.
Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Oakland Raiders
I know the transitive property does not apply to sports, but he Raiders just lost to the Jaguars at home, a team the Rams annihilated - in Jacksonville.
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas at its best looks better than Philadelphia at its best. The question is ... will we get either of their bests?
Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has gotten better this year, and a good draft or two and they could be challenging for the playoffs. But, that is in a good draft or two, not now.
Kansas City Chiefs -6 at Chicago Bears
DeShaun Watson v. Pat Mahomes would have been a great battle this week.
Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No Dalvin Cook for one thing. Green Bay has been continually underrated all season for another. I'll take the points.
Big Bet I
Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, so maybe the Jaguars haven't given up as they beat the Raiders last week. But that was the Raiders - and Derek Carr. Atlanta has been playing well lately, having beat New Orleans and San Francisco in the past month.
The Jaguars have given up.
Big Bet II
Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No Dalvin Cook for one thing. Green Bay has been continually underrated all season for another. I'll take the points.
Why not another big bet. Let's save it for Monday night to make it even more interesting.
Last Week's Record: 5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-2
Year-to-Date Record: 107-116-2
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 10-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($930)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,890)
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