Picks of the Week

I was right in that I was due for a bad week, but I was simply annihilated last week.  I need a comeback something fierce.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

New Orleans Saints +3 versus Atlanta Falcons
This was Thursday, and I told a couple of friends about this pick ahead of time.  Plus, regular readers should know my disdain for selecting road favorites, and this was on a short week with an ailing Julio Jones.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Detroit has yet to win a game this year, and I suppose this would be a good time for them to start, but a 3 1/2 point favorite?  The Bears defense is gelling nicely, and Alshon Jeffrey is supposed to be back this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Buffalo Bills
Repeat after me, Pepster hates road favorites, although EJ Manuel is starting today at QB for the Bills, Sammy Watkins is whining, and Cincinnati is lighting up teams, so I am OK with this selection.

Cleveland Browns + 3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
I really do not know what to do with this game.  This is the second week in a row that I have said that in a Browns game.  Denver is 5-0, but every game has been close.  They are not clicking at all.  Cleveland, behind Joe Haden's coverage of Demaryius Thomas would have definitely kept this close, but he is out with a concussion.  Nevertheless, I will take them anyway on a hunch that Travis Benjamin will make a big play.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans 
Jacksonville is playing some decent ball, including on the defensive side of the ball, whereas Houston is listless on offense.  Add to that fact that JJ Watt is hurt and I will take the home Jaguars.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Vikings are a well balanced team, and even with Jamaal Charles the Chiefs are limited.

Washington Racists +7 1/2 at New York Jets
I do not think that Washington is going to win this game, but I do believe that they can keep it close enough to cover the more than a touchdown spread.  Fitzpatrick is playing some decent quarterback for the Jets (GO HARVARD 5-0), and they will make more big plays that the Racists.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. Arizona Cardinals
I was just as everyone when Pittsburgh won last week, and Arizona is more talented that the Roethlisberger-less Steelers.  That being said, there is no way I am selecting Arizona as a road favorite, and as a west coast team travelling east for the early game.

Miami Dolphins +2 at Tennessee Titans
The Dolphins should come out of their bye week with renewed vigor and energy thanks to new coach Dan Coleman.  He will unleash the talented, but underperforming, defensive line on rookie QB Marcus Mariota.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Carolina may not be as talented overall as the Seahawks, but Cam Newton and G-Reg Olsen are playing as good as anyone else at their respective positions.  Seattle is missing center Max Unger, traded to New Orleans for Jimmie Graham, who only played 72% of the teams offensive downs last week,  Something is wrong there.

Green Bay Packers -10 v. San Diego Chargers
Today we find out if something is really wrong with Eddie Lacy.  If so, the Packers passing game could still outscore the Chargers, as the Packers defense - especially pass defense - is stifling this year.

San Francisco 49ers +2 v. Baltimore Ravens
This game would have been great 3 years ago, but today, not so much.  We have seen some life at times from each of these teams, but I will take the points at home.

New England Patriots -9 at Indianapolis
Another road favorite BUT ... The Patriots are much better, and more importantly, this is Bill Belicheick's deflategate revenge game.  I would have given up to 20 1/2 points in this game given the revenge factor.

New York Giants +5 at Philadelphia Eagles
Division rivals, prime time game, key offensive injuries on both sides ... I'll take the points.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Buffalo Bills
Repeat after me, Pepster hates road favorites, although EJ Manuel is starting today at QB for the Bills, Sammy Watkins is whining, and Cincinnati is lighting up teams, so I am OK with this selection.  I select this as my big bet because of the games I was considering, this is the one in which a backup quarterback is starting.

Last Week: 4-9-1
Year-to-Date: 42-33-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 4-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($440)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,005