What a bounce back week!!! I must make a clarification on my picks from last week. I picked the Vikings +8 over the Packers, and wrote about how Bridgewater gave them the spark they needed to keep the game close. After publication, Bridgewater was declared out of the game, so I changed my pick. The line moved 1 point, so it was Packers -9. I did tell 2 friends about it, but did not have a chance to post it. That game was a win because of the change.
As a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
Houston Texans + 2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are good, not great, but Arian Foster had a tremendous game last week against the Cowboys. The Colts defense is not very solid, so Foster could have a really big game. The Colts offense can score on anyone, but I suspect the Texans have enough on defense to keep this game close. Colts win, but Texans cover.
Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals
This is not an overreaction to last week. I would be making this pick if Cincinnati had won last week. I just think that a touchdown is too much to give to the Panthers, who although struggling at running back, look to get Jonathan Stewart back this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh only getting points because they are on the road, but that being said I will take them. Cleveland is a tough out, but one that the Steelers can wins, especially with Joe Haden having a bit of a down year for him.
Green Bay Packers -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins could welcome the return of Knowshon Moreno this week, which would be incredibly uplifting for their offense. Meanwhile it falls to the likes of Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to slow down the Packers passing attack with their ferocious pass rush. I don't think they can.
Detroit Lions -1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The loss of Adrian Peterson is just basically too much to overcome on the season. The may have played well on some adrenaline and pride early, but this team just is not very good without him.
Denver Broncos -10 at New York Jets
I am violating two rules with this pick: (1) Giving double digit points; and (2) picking a road favorite. However, the Jets pass defense is horrific and the Broncos have Manning, D. Thomas, J. Thomas, E. Sanders, W. Welker, etc., etc., etc.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I now just realized that I have picked 4 straight road favorites. This could be a very bad week for me.
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars played Pittsburgh tough last week, and I think the team really likes playing behind Blake Bortles. The Titans quarterback situation is not as settled, with either Jake "Locker Room" being hurt or Charlie Whitehurst being awful. If the Jaguars can play as well as they did last week, the might just get the win, so I will take the points.
San Diego Chargers -7 at Oakland Raiders
San Diego is another road favorite (I hate this!!!), but they are way more than a touchdown better than the Raiders - at home or on the road.
Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons
Except for a couple of poorly timed turnovers, the Bears would be 4-1, but instead they are winless and home and undefeated on the road. The Falcons are likewise schizophrenic, winless on the road and undefeated at home. Rookie Kyle Fuller gets to see a lot of Julio Jones, for those interested in one-on-one battles. I'll take the points in a relatively high-scoring affair.
Washington Whatever Their Name is Going to Be + 3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Because every now and then you have to make a pick that just does not make sense.
Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas has turned out to be a lot better than people thought they were going to be, especially defensively. While it is true the are no Seattle on defense, they do make plays and Rolando McClain could be the comeback player of the year. Seattle is great, and I think they win this game, I just think it will be by a touchdown.
New York Giants +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Odell Beckham, Jr.'s debut with the Giants last week really opened up a Giants offense that was already playing very well. He is just another weapon for Eli to utilize. The Eagles offense plays fast, but they don't seem to be as effective as last year. Could DeSean Jackson's absence account for some of that? Riley Cooper seemed more open last year as a fourth option than he does this year as a third.
San Francisco 49ers -3 at St. Louis Rams
While Austin Davis has been somewhat impressive quarterbacking the Rams, and while the 49ers have not been as impressive as they are supposed to be, the 49ers still have overwhelmingly better talent that the Rams do. I expect this game to be close, but San Francisco wins by a touchdown.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots -3 at Buffalo Bills
I hate taking road favorites, but the Patriots absolutely dismantled the Bengals last week, and although the Bills won with Kyle Orton at the helm, it was a struggle.
Year to Date: 39-37
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 4-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $600
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $265
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