I knew that I should not have been bragging about my successful picks two weeks ago, as that made last week's debacle even doubly worse. Nevertheless, the season goes on and it is time to play catch up. As a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
Minnesota Vikings +8 at Green Bay Packers
Despite what the Packers did to my Bears last week, they are still a flawed team, especially on defense. I know that Teddy Bridgewater may be hindered by his ankle, but he seems to have given the Vikings a spark. Plus, Thursday games are always weird.
Chicago Bears +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
The Bears DID move the ball against the Packers, and even though the Panthers defense is much better than Green Bay's, I expect that the Bears can move against anybody. The Bears defense has been susceptible to the run in the past (and the pass last week), but Carolina is down to its fifth running back, unless Johnathan Steward plays hobbled this week. I do like the Cam Newton to Kelvin Benjamin combination, though. Since I have to hang my hat on something, Chicago is 2-0 on the road this year.
Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
The quintessential strength versus strength game, in which Dallas's potent office goes against the stingy Houston defense. Although I would love to take Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick and the points, Tony Romo seems to be healed and has the Cowboys rolling like a well-oiled machine.
Buffalo Bills +7 at Detroit Lions
I do not think the Bills will necessarily win this game, but changing from E.J. Manuel to Kyle Orton might just be the spark the offense needs to keep this game close. They do have weapons, including Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and Sammy Watkins, plus a veteran may know how to get them the ball.
Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have turned out to be much better than I expected, and given the Colts problems on defense, I do expect the Ravens to have some big plays. But that being said, the Colts offense is playing as good as any unit in the NFL, and Andrew Luck is as good as advertised.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
C'mon. Even with Blake Bortles, this is still Jacksonville.
New Orleans Saints -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I really, really hate this bet.
New York Giants -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Giants are playing as good as anybody, especially offensively, and the Falcons have yet to win on the road this year. They way these two offenses have been playing, this could be a 45-41 shootout.
St. Louis Rams +7 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams defense is still pretty tough. Even if they lose the game, they will keep Eagles offense close. The Rams do need to find an offensive playmaker though.
Cleveland Browns +1 at Tennessee Titans
Nobody wins in this game. I just think Cleveland's defense is a bit better than Tennessee's offense or defense, and Charlie Whitehurst is not good.
Arizona Cardinals +7 1/2 at Denver Broncos
This just in - as nobody seems to have noticed in the past couple of years - the Cardinals are good. Defensively they are great. Denver likely won't be able to run up the score against the Cardinals like they can against other teams.
Kansas City Chiefs +6 at San Francisco 49ers
I do not think that this is an overreaction to last week's annihilation of the Patriots, but rather that this will be a game fought by two tough, run oriented teams which should keep it relatively close. Therefore, I will take the 6 points and the Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals -1 at New England Patriots
The Bengals defense is very talented, and the Patriots offense is not. The Bengals offense is very talented, while the Patriots do have some talent on defense. This leads me to believe that the Bengals will be victorious. I must say, I picked Dallas to beat New Orleans last week, because I feel that New Orleans is through their window of excellence (please ignore this week's pick when reading this sentence), then I went on to posit that New England is the New Orleans of the AFC. I then picked the Patriots anyway. What an idiot.
Seattle Seahawks -7 at Washington Whatever Their New Name is Going to Be
As we know, I do not like giving points on the road, but we saw the Redskins in their last prime time game, and it was not pretty. Seattle is better than that Giants team.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
San Diego Charges -6 v. New York Jets
The Jets have a great defensive line, but their secondary is horrible. Phillip Rivers is definitely going to exploit the Jets defense, and the Chargers defense is much, much better than the Jets horrific offense. The Chargers in a rout!
Year to Date: 29-32
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 3-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($440)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: ($335)
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