Saturday, September 26, 2009

Picks of the Week



Wow - What a week 2 for me (/pats self on the back). You don't get much better than 15-1 against the spread. That is going to be a tough act to follow. However, not that week 3 of the NFL season is upon us, I will have to do forward and try to capitalize on my recent successess. Here are this week's "Picks of the Week". As a refresher each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I will keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +2 at New York Jets
The Jets offense is nowhere near as prolific as Houston's can be on their best day, I look for the Titans to bounce back from a rough defeat last week.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Not only did the Texans finally wake up last week, they did it without a strong game from Steve Slaton, which is important because the Jags are still pretty stout against the run.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The good thing for the Eagles is that the Chiefs are not the Saints. In fact, I don't think they are even the "Aints" from the 80's.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Two pathetic efforts by the Browns coupled with the fact that the Ravens have an actual offense.

New York Giants -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My only hesitation is that the Giants are coming off an emotional victory in opening Cowboy Stadium.

Detroit Lions +6 1/2 v. Washington Redskins
Detorit has played pluckily in the first half in their first two games. That may be enough to keep this one close against the Redskins, who barely defeated an abysmal St. Louis Rams last week 9-7.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
Rams have scored 7 total points this year. One touchdown by the Packers may be enough to cover the spread.

San Francsisco 49ers +7 at Minnesota Vikings
A very interesting 49ers team that can be great on defense, and better than expected on offense. I think the Vikes win this one, but the 49ers keep it close.

Atlanta Falcons +4 1/2 at New England
I am picking the team with the most dynamic weapons on offense. That is not the Patriots.

New Orleans Saints -6 at Buffalo Bills
New Orleans shredded the Eagles defense. I am not sure that there is a spread high enough that I wouldn't pick New Orleans right now.

Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Miami's running game was great against the Colts. The Chargers so far have been horrific at stopping the run.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers cannot run the ball, while the Bengals have some big, strong receivers which will force matchup problems in the secondary. Add those ingrediants to a intra-divisional game, and I'll take the upstart Bengals.

Oakland Raiders + 1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
The Broncos were the one team that I picked incorrectly last week. I didn't want to select them for that reason alone. Plus, JaMarcus Russell has to start picking things up soon (doesn't he?).

Indianapolis Colts + 2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis has already proven that it does not need the ball that much to win a game. Only 15 minutes in time of possession last week (compared to 45 for the Dolphins).

Dallas Cowboys - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys defense has been a big problem for them this year (no turnovers, no sacks). Likewise, Jake Delhomme has been the problem for the Panthers. One of them has to change this game. I think its Dallas' D.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
I despise picking the Bears in the big game as they are my favorite team. However, it is just too hard to resist this week, as they are giving up less than a field goal to a Seahawks team that will be starting Seneca Wallace, or a lumbering (on his best days) Matt Hasselback, with a broken rib. The Seahawks will have to rely on Julius Jones, Edgerrin James and TJ Duckett to run the ball. I like those odds.

Previous Week's Record: 15-1 (1-0 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 24-8 (2-0)
Previous Weeks Winnings (Losses): $1540
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1820

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