Picks of the Week

 

Well, after six consecutive winning weeks, I got annihilated last week.  Frankly, I am glad that it happened because I was just waiting for it to happen.  The real kicker, though, is that I lost my first Big Bet of the season.  Ouch.  Now that it is over with, hopefully I can get back to my winning ways.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Green Bay Packers

I was OK with this since San Francisco was a home team on a short week, but honestly, I didn't realize Aaron Jones was returning for the Packers.  That was a big mistake.

Tennessee Titans -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The biggest problem with the Bears is their offensive line, and they lose another starter (their third), this time it's Cody Whitehair to Covid-19.  Not good, especially since they have their immobile starter in Nick Foles.

 

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Denver Broncos

The NFL's second ranked passing offense (and 6th overall), gets to host Denver, who has been playing better under Drew Lock, having won 3 of their last 4.  But, Atlanta's passing attack will be too much.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Buffalo Bills

I am going against the "west coast team travelling east and playing the early game" adage because in the Russell Wilson Era, the Seahawks seem to be immune to this betting rule.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Indianapolis Colts

This is the proverbial immovable object meets the irresistable force as the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense (Baltimore) meets the NFL's number one ranked total defense (and 2nd ranked rush defense) in the Colts.  The difference here will be that the Colts' offense has been paltry under Philip Rivers, whereas the Ravens defense is typically stout (2nd in scoring defense).

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Houston Texans

I have no reason for this pick whatsoever.  This is a game that seems like Houston should win, so it seems to easy.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Carolina Panthers

Second in scoring offense, and not even the return of Christian McCaffrey can keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit's rush defense (23rd in the NFL), is not going to be able to handle the whirling dervish that is Dalvin Cook.

Washington Football Team -3 v. New York Giants

Believe this or not, Washington's defense is 4th in total defense and 1st in passing defense.  Offense is not great, but it is still better than the Giants' offense (30th and 31st).  Plus, the Giants are on a short week.  Have I mentioned that I love typing Washington Football Team?!

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at Los Angeles Chargers

Ooooh, I get to pick a road favorite.  I am sooooo daring.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big number for a road favorite (counteracting the Raiders 1 point), but the Cowboys have scored 1 offensive touchdown since Dak Prescott went down.  I don't expect them to score too many against Pittsburgh's 6th ranked defense (total, passing, scoring - 5th in rushing defense).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas is back, but will it take a while for him to get back into rhythm.  Tampa Bay is clicking on offense, using everyone.   Even before Michael Thomas went out, New Orlease was slogging through their games, even their wins.  It does scare me that it is a short week for Tampa Bay, but hopefully the fact this is a night game minimizes that.

New England Patriots -9 1/2 at New York Jets

This is not your normal New England Patriots, but it is your normal New York Jets.  They are horrible.  I don't like this spread for a prime time game, especially given New England's 29th ranked scoring offense, but they took the Bills down to the wire in Buffalo last week - losing only due to a late Cam Newton fumble, and Damien Harris is turning into a really good running back.

Bye Week - Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

I honestly see Arizona scoring a lot of points.  Yes, Miami has the number-1 ranked scoring defense, but they are 23rd in total defense, 20th in passing defense, and 21st in rushing defense).  So, Miami's defensive ranking is very much an anomaly.

Others that I thought about for this spot, Tennessee over Chicago, Kansas City over Carolina, and Washington over New York Giants.

Last Week's Record:  4-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-50-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($755)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1885