Picks of the Week - Conference Championship Weekend

Boy did I take a beating.  I thought for sure that the Rams were the one team that was going to be the surprise from last weekend, but alas it was the Commanders, and for that, I lost a ton.  Gotta make some of that back this weekend so that I can find enough prop bets in the Super Bowl to finish well this season.  But, it all starts today.  And I hope, like all of us, that we do not have to see Jalen Hurts throw for 116 yards in the Super Bowl.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

This spread opened at 4 1/2, and enough money came in on the Eagles to move this 2 whole points.  That is insane.  My only guess is that dumb people make dumb bets (as the readers of this blog can attest!)  But lets delve a bit deeper into this.  Washingon and Philadelphia split the season series, with the Eagles winning at home in Week 11 26-18, and Washington winning at home in week 16 36-33, but this is the game in which Jalen Hurts left with a concussion.  That being said, the Commanders have now won 7 in a row, and are playing much better than in week 11.  Plus, if you add to the fact that Philadelphia may lose some key players, including those on the offensive line, to injury, or at the very least they willnot be playing 100%, and this has the feeling of a game that should be within a touchdown.  Because of that, I will take 6 1/2 points.

Washington Commanders +235 at Philadelphia (Bet $100 to win $235)

If I had a gun to my head, I would actually bet Philadelphia to win this game.  Close, but to win it.  Both teams like to rush the ball, with Philly second in the NFL and Washington third (but over a 25 yards per game difference between them), but Philly is better against the rush (10th) than the Commanders (30th).  But when the running game slows down, Washington's pass offense was 17th in yards, but with Daniels make key - and I mean KEY - throws.  The Eagles are 29th in the league in passing offense, despite having A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.  Terry McLaurin has proven he can come up big, and with the money line favoring a bet on Washington here, versus being -285/-290 for Philadelphia, I have to take it, and hope for another upset.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 46 1/2

I really have no reason to pick either the over or the under on this one, so I am just going to try to hope for a fun, high-scoring game.  given that the teams combine to score an average of 55.6 points per game (although they only give up 40.8), I expect at least 1 quick score each, meaning I only need 33 points for the rest of the game.

Buffalo Bills +2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Lots of people have lost lots of money betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in big spots.  But, this year just FEELS different.  Yes the Chiefs won home-field advantage with a 15-2 record, but most of their wins were close, and one of the losses was 30-21 at these same Buffalo Bills.  Statistically Buffalo is better on offense (12th versus 17th total; 9th versus 14th passing; 9th versus 22nd rushing; 2nd versus 15th scoring), with Kansas City being better on defense (8th versus 19th total; 18th versus 24th passing; 8th versus 12th rushing, 4th versus 11th scoring).  I feel that James Cook (along with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis) could be the difference with Cook having gained 281 more yards that Kareem Hunt on only 7 more carries.  If Buffalo gets up, then perhaps Patrick Mahomes throws a key interception or fumbles during a run trying to get a first down.  And, the lack of super-talented wide-receivers has to come back to haunt the Chiefs as Travis Kelce cannot continue to operate as the only option through the air.

Buffalo Bills +110 at Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $100 to win $110)

I hate betting on both underdogs today, as usually the best way to get to the Super Bowl is to be the better team, and Philadelphia and Kansas City have been the better teams all year, excpet Buffalo and Kansas City seem even, and the odds with the +110 are better to me that the -130, when trying to dig out of a hole.  (Ed. note - Children, this is a horrible reason to place a wager).  Back to the analysis, Buffalo makes enough plays to win and head back to the Super Bowl for the first time in a long time.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 48 1/2

Only because we have seen this play out before in the playoffs, with someone trying to outscore Patrick Mahomes, creating a shootout mentality among both teams.

Big Bets:

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

This spread opened at 4 1/2, and enough money came in on the Eagles to move this 2 whole points.  That is insane.  My only guess is that dumb people make dumb bets (as the readers of this blog can attest!)  But lets delve a bit deeper into this.  Washingon and Philadelphia split the season series, with the Eagles winning at home in Week 11 26-18, and Washington winning at home in week 16 36-33, but this is the game in which Jalen Hurts left with a concussion.  That being said, the Commanders have now won 7 in a row, and are playing much better than in week 11.  Plus, if you add to the fact that Philadelphia may lose some key players, including those on the offensive line, to injury, or at the very least they willnot be playing 100%, and this has the feeling of a game that should be within a touchdown.  Because of that, I will take 6 1/2 points.

Most of my analysis is complete, but this is my big bet simply because I am taking the points.  It is that simple.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-2

Year-to-Date Record:  149-142-11

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-12

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($901.15)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,502.65)

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Solid start to the playoffs, finishing in the black.  A couple of low-scoring games kept me from being waaaaay up, but that is the nature of betting.  Let's see if I can capitalize on a good playoff start as we head into divisional weekend!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -455 v. Houston Texans (Bet $455 to win $100)

I learned a long time ago not to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.  Even if this game is going to be close, I still feel strongly that Kansas City advances to the Conference Championship weekend; especially if Joe Mixon does not play for Houston (he is questionable).  Plus, Andy Reid is not going to lose coming off a bye week.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have had a helluva run this year, and finished as the 5th highest-scoring team in the NFL, but Detroit has been otherwordly on offense, averaging over 33, and their defense is 7th in points allowed.  With an extra week to rest up, and with David Montgomery returning, Detroit should cruise.

Detroit Lions -455 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $455 to win $100)

I already mentioned I think that Detroit is going to cruise, so I have to pick them with the money line, right?  Here is another reason why, Detroit is 5th against the run on defense, which could stifle Washington's 3rd-ranked rush offense, or at least limit it to less yard than they are used to gaining.  And oh yeah, Washington is on a short week.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions UNDER 55 1/2

The contrapositive of the earlier over/under bet.  If you can't bet the under on the highest number, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's offense just hasn't looked right lately, even with Saquon doing his thing.  Jalen Hurts only threw for 131 yards last week in his first game back from injury for a team that is only 29th in the NFL in passing.  The Rams could focus on Saquon and try to limit his yards, as much as any time can.  On the other side, even a great pass defense like the Eagles are going to have problems with Puka Nacua, especially in inclement weather.

Los Angeles Rams +240 at Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $240)

Some upset has to occur, right?  If so, I think it is this one, as the Rams have been a completely different team since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in Week 7, going 9-3 (including last week's win) since.  And yes this includes a 37-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 12, and I am willing to bet that Saquon doesn't have another 255 yard game along with A.J. Brown going for over 100 as well.   What scares me?  The Rams are playing on a short week, having played the Monday night game last week.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 42 1/2

I thought for sure that I was going to pick the under hear, with sub-freezing temperatures expected, but inclement weather often produces turnovers in plus-territory, meaning two or three extra scoring possessions.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Buffalo Bills

If a road favorite is only favored by 1, are they truly a road favorite?  Yes the loss of Zay Flowers may hurt, but as I typed last week, the Ravens are scary in two-tight end sets as that increases the big blockers for Derrick Henry, and Isaiah Likely joins Mark Andrews as excellent pass catchers.  Josh Allen has been a force of nature this year, but Lamar is the MVP as far as I am concerned, and Baltimore's number 1 rushing defense will make Allen's arm try to beat them, in inclement weather.

Baltimore Ravens -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

So, I really could have just bet Buffalo at Even here, which would hedge against my points spread bet, but because of the vig, that would have meant that I just lost $20 with no potential payout, so, the smart thing to do here is just bet on the Ravens for both, and hope for the best.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills OVER 51 1/2

No real reason for picking this over other than I just really want this to be a high scoring game, and I hope this helps manifest the outcome.  But really, both teams average scoring over 30 a game (30.5 for Baltimore and 30.9 for Buffalo), so I don't feel that this is too much of a reach.

Big Bets:

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Going to get my big bets early, taking the Texans to cover for all of the reasons mentioned in this post.  Also, this game is going to be tough to watch as I need KC to win, but not by too much.  Fun times.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Hoping that Kansas City coming off a bye week hits 30 on their own.

Record

Last Week's Record:  11-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  145-135-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $213.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($601.50)

Picks of the Week

 

As expected, last week was a cluster - A1 certified cluster.  But what to expect when we don't even know who will be playing or for how long half the time.  I will say BOOO to the Dallas Cowboys for playing Trey Lance the entire game, keeping Cooper Rush from hitting a $250,000 bonus, and a big kudos to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who threw one last pass to Mike Evans securing 1,000 yards on the season, and a $3 million bonus.  

It's playoff time, so hopefully it is time to use everything we learned this year to make some real money!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Chargers defense is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL.  Houston's defense is no slouch either, finishing 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense.  But, J.K. Dobbins is expected to return, and that can only open up things for a Justin Herbert-led passing offense that has discovered a true weapon in Ladd McConkey.

Los Angeles Chargers -155 at Houston Texans (Bet $155 to win $100)

If I am willing to pick the Chargers against the spread on the road, then -155 is not enough of a change to warrant a hedge bet and taking Houston.  If it was -180 or something, then I might have thought about it, but not for this.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans OVER 41 1/2

The defenses are too good for this to be a shootout, but this line is low  Simething like 27-20 or 27-17 seems right to me.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This line may seem really high for an intradivisional game in which the teams split during the regular season, but the Steelers that defeated the Ravens 18-16 in week 11 are not the same Steelers that Baltimore decimated 34-17 in Week16, or even the ones that are playing now.

Baltimore Ravens -550 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $550 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 1st against the run, which should minimize what little strength on offense the Steelers have (11th in rushing/27th in passing).  The Ravens on offense are the best rushing team in the NFL averaging over 187 yards per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 1/2

Baltimore will have over 30 themselves behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  Yes, losing Zay Flowers hurts, but that just means an increase in two-tight end sets with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews, and that is dangerous to defenses, especially in short yardage situations.

Buffalo Bills -8 v. Denver Broncos

I have seen this line as high as 9 1/2, so if I can take 8 I will.  This is the end of a Cinderella-like run for Denver this year, and although their future could be bright with some more offensive weapons, this isn't their year.

Buffalo Bills -425 v. Denver Broncos (Bet $425 to win $100)

Buffalo is just better, and they will win this game.  So, have to take them in the money line - no doubts.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills OVER 47 1/2

Not including last week's game where Buffalo rested everybody, they have scored on their own 40, 24, 48, 42, 35, 30,30,30 31, and 34 in their previous 10 games.  Sure looks like a good over bet to me as all we will need is Denver to score SOMETHING.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Philadelphia Eagles -240 (Bet $240 to win $100)

I hate not having some money line to hedge my bets against the favorites (and yes, the Chargers are the favorites even though they are the lower seeded team and playing on the road), but I feel that Philly is going to slam Green Bay, so I have to take it.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2

Both teams defenses shoould keep this really low scoring, and I do not expect Green bay to contribute much toward the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Washington Commanders

Great season by Washington, led by the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (it should be Brock Bowers, but I digress).  Baker Mayfield has this Bucs offense humming along, as they are 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing, 3rd in passing, 3rd in total offense and 1st in 3rd down percentage.  Compare that to Washingon's defense which is 3rd against the pass, but 30th against the run, 11th in total defense, and 18th in scoring defense.  Daniels will make plays to keep the Commanders in the game, but Tampa should be too much.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $160 to win $100)

This might ordinarily be one of the games where I would hedge a bet, but the spread just isn't big enough to do that.  Bucky Irving will have a big game, keeping the Commanders offense off the field.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50 1/2

If you can't take the under on the highest O/U on the board, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

In a game moved to Glendale because of the massive fires in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, you would think the Rams would lose their home-field advantage, which they earned by winning their division - even though Minnesota had a better record.  But, everybody is going to be cheering for the Rams, securing their "home field".  Also, they have a lot to play for on behalf of all of LA (as do the Chargers).  I look a lot at the Week 8 game in which the Rams won 30-20 in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's first games back from injury.

Los Angeles Rams +125 v. Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $125)

If I think an underdog is going to win outright, then I absolutely am going to take them for the money line.  

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Big Bets:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Green Bay is done for this year.  The Bears lost last week was a symptom that this is not the same team as earlier in the season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Lots of offensive firepower is hard to shut down for 60 minutes.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-128-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-9

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($815)

Picks of the Week

 

Happy New Year from South Ponte Vedra, Florida.  A little vacay, so probably not much analysis today - well, we will see when we get into it.  At the very least a bit rushed because games are today, which is awful for those in the playoff hunt, as it gives teams, like Miami and Denver, the knowledge of what they have to do given that Cincinnati plays first.  All of these games should be tomorrow.  But, oh well, I don't run things.  A bit of a so-so week as I finished with a winning record, but lost the big bet, so finished a bit in the negative.  And this week is a super crapshoot as some teams rest all of their best players, some will only play them a little bit, and most we will have no idea until it happens.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +20 at Baltimore Ravens

I cannot, in good conscience, but on a 20-point favorite.  Even if Bailey Zappe is starting for the other team.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay wins this, but I feel like they will be tentative not wanting ot invite injury into their playoff team.  Chicago only incentive is that a lot of players and coaches are playing and coaching for their jobs.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Most starters won't be playing for Philadelphia, but Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Gainwell have both proven themselves to be legitimate NFL players.

Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Other than last week's debacle, Carolina has been playing everybody close.  Atlanta technically has the potential of the playoffs, except that if Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead against the Saints, the deflation-factor could really come into play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are a M*A*S*H unit, and Tampa is on fire.  They will be a tough out for the Detroits, Minnesotas and Philadelphias of the NFC.  And, can somebody please tell me how Baker Mayfield was not selected to the Pro Bowl?  All due respect to Jayden Daniels.

Washington Commanders -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate selecting an intradivsional road favorite, but last week's decimation at the hands of the Eagles most likely broke the Cowboys.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Much like the Cowboys, the Colts suffered a horrible loss last week to the Giants, just ending their season.  Not much to play for at all.  I can't even believe the Colts are starting Joe Flacco.

Houston Texans +2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is actually getting points in this, which tells me that the bettors think they may not play their starters very long.  I hope that isn't true.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Buffalo has the 2-seed locked up, but hoping the starters jump to an early lead in the first half just because the team is so mad that they allowed New England to play them so close two weeks ago.

Kansas City Chiefs +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Broncos have to win to make the playoffs (they can also make it with both Cincinnati and Miami losses, and Cincinnati plays Saturday, so they will know), and Kansas City will not be playing its starters, but 10 1/2 points?  I reserve the right to change this bet if Cincinnati loses.  Otherwise, I absolutely hate this line.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

An absolute crapshoot of a pick based solely on Joshua Dobbs' athleticism.

Miami Dolphins +1 at New York Jets

Bad line here, because Aaron Rodgers would do something like win a game to push the Jets down in the draft order, only to end up leaving the team and/or retiring.  This line could change toward the Jets if Cincinnati wins on Saturday, and I reserve the right to change my pick if that occurrs.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

In most circumstances, the Rams are the picks in this game, except that Seattle needs this game, and the Rams plan to rest a lot of its players.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Jim Harbaugh never allows rest.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions

This whole year has been "Detroit this, Detroit that."  Minnesota has the opportunity to yank the #1 overall seed away from Detroit.  I don't know that they do that, but I think this game will be incredibly close, so I'll take the points.  The difference will be Minnesota's defense, 4th in third-down percentage, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd against the rush.

Big Bets:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

I hate picking a road team for the big bet, much less in an intra-divisional game.  But Cincinnati has a lot for which to play, and Burrow puts an exclamation point on what would ordinarily be an MVP season.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  127-119-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-8

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($360)