NFL Conference Championship Picks of the Week

Jacksonville looked strong, and Atlanta and Pittsburgh disappointed me last week.  Oh well, on to this week's conference championship games.  Like last week, I will be the line, money line and over/under.  The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +8 at New England Patriots
That defense can be so dominating.  I am not saying they will shut down the Patriots offense completely, but they can get to Tom Brady with just 4 lineman.  This is especially true on obvious passing downs when they can pair Dante Fowler on the inside with Marcell Dareus and keep both Calais Cambell and Yannick Ngakoue on the outside.  The corners can be physical with the Patriots receivers, and knock them off their routes.  Tom Brady will still be Tom Brady, but can the rest of the offense compete, especially on the line?

Jacksonville Jaguars +290 (Bet $100 to win $290)
For all the reasons that I stated above, plus Leonard Fournette is so strong that he can keep the chains moving.  That being said, I honestly think the Patriots will win this game, but at a -$440 opening line (now -$350) the incentive to pick New England just isn't there.  I can bet $100 on the Jags to win $290, or I can bet $350 on the Patriots to win $100.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots UNDER 45 1/2
I hate taking the under, but this game does have Blake Bortles going against Bill Belichick's defense.  Jacksonville's defense as well.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Minnesota Vikings
I believe I learned my lesson last week in not taking a road favorite in Philadelphia.  If it was a point or two less, I would take Minnesota, as I think they are going to win outright, but I feel this is going to be a close game as both defenses were superb last week.  Philly's corners may give up a big play or two to Diggs and/or Thielen make the difference.

Minnesota Vikings -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
For the reasons stated above - the Eagles corners will give up a couple of big or important plays.  Yes, I have to put up $150 to win $100, but the Eagles are only +$135.  My gut says Minnesota wins, so I will take that play here.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 38 1/2
What a ridiculously low over/under line.  24-17 hits the over.  I'll take it.  Yes the defenses are great, but that also means that after some 3-and-outs the offense will take over in good field position.  I will take the over.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 5-7
Playoff Record - 12-12
Last Week's Big Bet: 2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  136-136-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($370)
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($170)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1380)

Divisional Playoffs/Picks of the Week

A really good opening week to the playoffs.  Just a couple of plays from an extraordinary week.  Hopefully that continues.  Once again, for the playoffs and since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are the home team and yes they are the number 1 seed.  Yes, the Falcons are the number 6 seed.  The Falcons are the reigning NFC champions, they did win 10 games this year and they are starting their starting quarterback.  This game features the seventh ranked defense (Eagles) and 8th ranked defense (Falcons) in the NFL  I will take Matt Ryan and the experience of the Falcons over the versatility of the Eagles offense.  24-21.

Atlanta Falcons -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
Since I feel Atlanta will cover the spread, I have to take them with the money line, especially since Philly is only +$130, so not much extra incentive to take the Eagles here.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 40
Two really good defenses, but 40 really isn't a lot of points.  Like I said before, 24-12, Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
Let's get this straight from the beginning:  there is no way Tennessee wins this matchup.  I just think that with the tough running of Derrick Henry, and Mariota making a few plays, the Patriots might only win by 10.

New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
This is really a suckers bet.  Not because I don't think New England will win, but because there is little or no value in making this bet, but since I am picking each games money line, I am definitely taking the Patriots.  No doubt they win.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I am not sure Tennessee scores enough to get to the 48.  New England 28-18, maybe?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville destroyed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year.  I do not expect that to happen again, but I also expect that the Jaguars defense can keep this game closer than the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -$320 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $320 to win $100)
Not a value bet, but I feel good about Pittsburgh's chances to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41
Blake Bortles looks like he is playing like Blake Bortles.  This could end up being a 20-14 game.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has had a great season, finishing 11th in total offense and 1st in total defense, but New Orleans is second in total offense, and they will put enough points on the board to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints +$200 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $200)
Yes, I think that New Orleans will win outright over the Vikings, so I will take the money line bet.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings OVER 46
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 7-5
Playoff Record - 7-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  131-129-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $200
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $200
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1010)

Playoffs Picks of the Week/Wild-Card Round

What a horrible start to the week, but managed to scramble to .500 for the week - and for the season - (but lost money due to the vig).  As we know, the playoffs are a whole different season.  Since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +8 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City escaped the doldrums of the middle of the season by winning their last 4 games in a row, often impressively.  The important statistic for me, though, is that Tennessee has the 4th best defense against the run, holding opponents to 88.8 yards per game.  Their strong run defense could hold the NFL's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt (1327 yards).  Even though Alex Smith did have the best passer rating of all eligible quarterbacks this year, he isn't likely to dominate a game, especially when the Titans have a relatively fresh Derrick Henry smashing into the 25th ranked rush defense of the Chiefs.  I will take the 8 1/2 points.

Kansas City Chiefs -$340 over Tennessee Titans (Bet $340 to win $100)
So, this is the worst money line bet on the board.  However, I have to take it because I don't believe that Tennessee can win this game outright.  If I am just trying to chase the money and get rid of my deficit, I take the Titans at +$255.  However, I don't think Tennessee wins, so I take the Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2
Both teams, at their average score a total of 46.8 points, and since neither defense overall is exemplary (excepting Tennessee's rush defense, but they are 25th against the pass).  Perhaps a 31-24 win by Kansas City to sweep all three bets.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams finished the season as the highest scoring team in the NFL, but were only 10th in total offense.  A lot of that came because of the exemplary kicking of Greg Zuerlein, who is out injured.  Meanwhile Atlanta seems like they have flown under the radar, despite the fact that they are basically in the same position as last year.  The offense wasn't exactly clicking this year, but they are in the playoffs and their 8th ranked defense in points allowed and 9th ranked defense in total yards could cause problems for the Rams.  The Falcons with points is dangerous.

Atlanta Falcons +$230 over Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $230)
For all of the reasons stated above, I expect Atlanta to outright beat the Rams.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48
Two high scoring teams should make this number rather easily.  I feel that at least one team will be in the 30s, if not both.

Buffalo Bills + 8 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo finished the season only 1 game behind Jacksonville, and a lot of that reason was LeSean McCoy.  Since it appears that he is going to play, I can only assume that he is fit to do LeSean McCoy type things.  That means he will perform against the 21st ranked rush defense in the NFL.  Ball control, and some scoring could keep this game close.

Jacksonville Jaguars -$335 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $335 to win $100)
It is still possible that LeSean McCoy is not 100%.  If that is the case, there is no real way Buffalo can beat the Jaguars.  The only chance they have is to jump out to a lead a force Blake Bortles to throw.  I don't see that happening.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 39
Would anybod y be surprised if this hit under, of course not.  But, if the winning team hits 24, the over should win.

New Orleans Saints -6 v. Carolina Panthers
These teams know each other too well, so it is really tempting to take the points, especially given 4th ranked rushing offense and 3rd ranked rushing defense.  However, these teams have played twice, and New Orleans won by a composite of 31 points.  The Saints' 10 point victory over Carolina occurred in week 13.   Saints just have too much firepower.

New Orleans Saints -$255 over Carolina Panthers (Bet $255 to win $100)
It goes without saying that if I think the Saints will cover the spread, that I would take them with the money line.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints OVER 47 1/2
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams

If I feel that they will win outright, then I damn sure need to make them my big bet.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-124-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1210)