NFL Conference Championship Picks of the Week

Jacksonville looked strong, and Atlanta and Pittsburgh disappointed me last week.  Oh well, on to this week's conference championship games.  Like last week, I will be the line, money line and over/under.  The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +8 at New England Patriots
That defense can be so dominating.  I am not saying they will shut down the Patriots offense completely, but they can get to Tom Brady with just 4 lineman.  This is especially true on obvious passing downs when they can pair Dante Fowler on the inside with Marcell Dareus and keep both Calais Cambell and Yannick Ngakoue on the outside.  The corners can be physical with the Patriots receivers, and knock them off their routes.  Tom Brady will still be Tom Brady, but can the rest of the offense compete, especially on the line?

Jacksonville Jaguars +290 (Bet $100 to win $290)
For all the reasons that I stated above, plus Leonard Fournette is so strong that he can keep the chains moving.  That being said, I honestly think the Patriots will win this game, but at a -$440 opening line (now -$350) the incentive to pick New England just isn't there.  I can bet $100 on the Jags to win $290, or I can bet $350 on the Patriots to win $100.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots UNDER 45 1/2
I hate taking the under, but this game does have Blake Bortles going against Bill Belichick's defense.  Jacksonville's defense as well.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Minnesota Vikings
I believe I learned my lesson last week in not taking a road favorite in Philadelphia.  If it was a point or two less, I would take Minnesota, as I think they are going to win outright, but I feel this is going to be a close game as both defenses were superb last week.  Philly's corners may give up a big play or two to Diggs and/or Thielen make the difference.

Minnesota Vikings -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
For the reasons stated above - the Eagles corners will give up a couple of big or important plays.  Yes, I have to put up $150 to win $100, but the Eagles are only +$135.  My gut says Minnesota wins, so I will take that play here.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 38 1/2
What a ridiculously low over/under line.  24-17 hits the over.  I'll take it.  Yes the defenses are great, but that also means that after some 3-and-outs the offense will take over in good field position.  I will take the over.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 5-7
Playoff Record - 12-12
Last Week's Big Bet: 2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  136-136-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($370)
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($170)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1380)