NFL REGULAR SEASON REVIEW

 

The NFL regular season is over, and the playoffs will soon (5 days) be upon us.  So before that begins, let us take a look at the regular season as a whole, and what each team needs to address in the offseason. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (14-3) Took control of this division after a week 5 win at Buffalo, and never looked back.  This team could use a Wide Receiver/Tight End playmaker to take it over the top, given Stefon Diggs' volatility and legal problems.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) The Bills went 3-1 in the last quarter, but still just don't look sharp.  A big-play receiver and a strong run-stuffing DT should be the focus in the offseason.

Miami Dolphins (7-10) Quinn Ewers looks OK and could be serviceable - maybe more - as a starter.  The Dolphins need to get rid of Tua's contract and focus on finding strong, stable offensive lineman.

New York Jets (3-14)

Horrible year for the Jets.  They need a foundational quarterback above everything else.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Steelers went 3-1 to cement the AFC North title on the last day.  Despite making the playoffs, they need to focus on a lot; wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf, offensive lineman to improve the running game, and an improved secondary.

Baltimore Ravens (8-9)

Injuries to Lamar Jackson hurt this season.  That and a horrible secondary led to their demise.  They should focus on a veteran corner, and a young, talented corner in the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)

Another team just crippled by injuries.  They need to focus on a big defensive tackle and linebackers.

Cleveland Browns (5-12)

Cleveland had a very good 2024 draft:  Mason Graham DT, Carson Schewsinger (LB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Harold Fannin, Jr. (TE), and Shadeur Sanders (QB) all hit.  They primarily need to focus on obtaining a playmaker for Sanders at WR, and protection as well in the OL.

 

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

What a year.  Might focus on a big-play corner or pass rusher.

Houston Texans (12-5)

They have won 9 in a row!!!  Certainly clicking at the right time.  Team should focus on a dynamic running back, and nobody would be mad at offensive linemen.

Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Lost seven straight to end the season without Daniel Jones.  Offseason focus should be on bolstering the secondary and another pass rusher to complement Laiatu Latu.

Tennessee Titans (3-14)

The focus should be on playmakers and protection for Cam Ward, who looks legitimate despite being on a last-place team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (14-3)

Finished the year out 3-1 to secure home-field advantage in the AFC.  They need to focus on a dynamic running back, and a playmaker at receiver.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers remain dangerous as they enter the playoffs.  They are solid in every phase, so they just need to focus on adding talent at any position that is available to them.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

The Chiefs finished 0-4 without Patrick Mahomes due to injury.  They need to focus on an every-down running back, a possession receiver with hands to compliment Rashee Rice, and replacement for Travis Kelce!(?)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

Earning the number 1 pick in the draft gifts them Fernando Mendoza.  They need to focus on a coaching staff that can unlock his best qualities and develop him into a star, and protect him with lineman.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Not the same team as last year, but they could still make a run.  The team needs to focus on the passing game.  They have the players, so maybe a new passing-game coordinator, or offensive coordinator?

Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)

This team has more talent than their record.  After waiving Trevon Diggs, they really need to focus on the secondary, at corner and safety.  A pass rusher wouldn't hurt either.

Washington Commanders (5-12)

A healthy Jayden Daniels would mean the world to this team.  Offseason focus should be on a complimentary playmaker to Terry McLaurin, and improvement to the secondary.

New York Giants (4-13)

The first overall pick would have been nice, but that didn't happen.  They need a big-time playmaking wide receiver, some receiver depth, and a run-stuffing defensive tackle and linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (11-6)

This season has exceeded expectations for the Bears, and despite obvious holes in the team, they do not quit.  Their focus in the offseason should be on a top pass rusher to compliment Montez Sweat, and linebacker talent (either inside or for coverage - whichever help is available).

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)

Lost a few down the stretch -  including to the Bears - to gift the Bears the division. Still really talented, the team should focus on a true number 1 receiver (I feel they have a bunch of good, not great receivers), and perhaps some linebacking help.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

An up-and-down year for the Vikings.  They need to focus on whether J.J. McCarthy is really it.  If so, figure out what works for him because they have the playmakers.  Perhaps some offensive lineman and interior defenders to round-out the roster.

Detroit Lions (9-8)

Disappointing season for the Lions.  They need to focus on acquiring a secondary pass rusher, and maybe some secondary help.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers (8-9)

Snuck into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  They need a lot of help.  With some talent here, they should focus on loading up on both lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Missed the playoffs despite defeating Carolina in the last week of the season.  They need to focus on secondary help as well as some young blood on offense.  A pass rusher would help too.

Atlanta Falcons (8-9)

The dreaded loser in the three-team tiebreaker.  Running game is sound, passing game decent when Michael Penix and Drake London are healthy.  Some strong lineman (offensive and defensive) should be the focus this offseason.

New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The Saints went 3-1 in the last quarter.  They need to focus on a young Alvin Kamara replacement to grow with Tyler Shough, and lineman to pave the way for that running back (and protect Shough).

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The best team in the league.  Very solid in all phases.  They should maybe focus on a block/catch TE and a pass rusher.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3)

Another really solid team, finishing off a solid year.  Maybe a shut-down corner or a pass rusher.

San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Easily the best division in football.  San Francisco should focus on secondary help and linebacker help/depth.  Fred Warner is not going to last forever.

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Winless in the last quarter.  They need literally everything.  They should focus on deciding whether Kyler Murray is their long-term QB first, and then just grab as much talent as possible anywhere on the field.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the three-quarter point)

1.  Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (4)

2.  San Francisco 49ers 14-3 (7)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 14-3 (3)

4.  New England Patriots 14-3 (1)

5.  Denver Broncos 14-3 (2)

6.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (10)

7.  Houston Texans 12-5 (12)

8.  Buffalo Bills 12-5 (9)

9.  Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (6)

10.  Chicago Bears 11-6 (8)

11.  Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (13)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (16)

13.  Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (5)

14.  Detroit Lions 9-8 (11)

15.  Minnesota Vikings 9-8 (22)

16.  Baltimore Ravens 8-9 (21)

17. Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (24)

18.  Carolina Panthers 8-9 (17)

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 (15)

20.  Indianapolis Colts 8-9 (14)

21.  Dallas Cowboys 7-9-1 (18)

22.  Miami Dolphins 7-10 (20)

23.  New Orleans Saints 6-11 (29)

24.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 (19)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (23)

26.  Cleveland Browns 5-12 (25)

27.  Washington Commanders 5-12 (26)

28.  New York Giants 4-13 (31)

29.  Tennessee Titans 3-14 (30)

30.  Arizona Cardinals 3-14 (28)

31.  Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 (32)

32.  New York Jets 3-14 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Minnesota Vikings +7, Atlanta Falcons +7, New Orleans Saints +6, Green Bay Packers -8, Indianapolis Colts -6, Baltimore Ravens -5, Kansas City Chiefs -5

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Drake Maye is right there

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns - Not even close

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers Tyler Shough closing FAST!

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns - Pearce and Emmanwori next

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars - And this isn't even close, but Vrabel will win

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts - Who knew he was this good or important?

Comeback Player of the Year - Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers - Back to Form

And yes, I know the NFL does the MVP, then Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.  I don't care.

2026 - A REVIEW OF THE TOP ATHLETES OF THE YEAR

 

As a follow-up to my last post, here are the 20 athletes that reigned supreme in 2025.

20.  Walter Clayton, Jr.  The guard from the University of Florida lands on this list because not only did he lead the Gators to the NCAA basketball championship, but he did so with his timely late-game shooting.

19.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  The Dodgers pitcher was a nice 12-8 with a 2.49 ERA and a .99 WHIP, but what lands him on this list is his three wins in the World Series (the first pitcher since 2001), which earned him the WS MVP.

18.  Aryna Sabalenka.  A dominating year in which she ends with the number 1 ranking in the WTA.

17.  Conner McDavid.  Perhaps the best NHL Player, but certainly the most important player in the 4-Nations Cup as his OT winner cemented the Championship for Canada over the United States.

16.  J.J. Spaun.  Currently ranked 8th in the world, but his dramatic rise culminating in his US Open victory is what lands him on this list.  His putting, from any angle or distance, was magical.

15.  Aaron Judge.  His third MVP - and second consecutive - places him in the pantheon of All-Time MLB Players.

14.  Janik Skinner.  He won Wimbledon and the Australian Open in 2025 as the Big 2 split the majors among themselves.

13.  Clayton Kershaw.  Strikes out his 3,000th hitter, announces his retirement at the end-of-the-season, and then wins the World Series.  

12.  Alex Ovechkin.  All he did was score more goals than Wayne Gretzky in his career!

11.  Ousmane Dembele.  He led PSG to the treble in France including the UEFA Champions League title, as the leading scorer in Ligue 1.  He won the Ballon d'Or as the best soccer player in the world for 2025.

10.  Carlos Alcaraz.  Currently the number 1 ranked player in tennis, he won the French Open and the U.S. Open in 2025, the French in classic fashion over Janik Skinner.

9.  Scottie Scheffler.  He won the PGA Championship and the Open Championship in 2025, as he continued his reign as the world's top-ranked golfer for his 4th season.

8.  Paige Bueckers.  She absolutely dominated her last year in college leading Connecticut to the NCAA title, became the number 1 overall draft pick in the WNBA draft, and won Rookie of the Year in the WNBA.

7.  Lando Norris.  Won his first Formula 1 season title, despite losing points in a controversial ruling 3 races from the end of the season.

6.  Lionel Messi.  He dominated the MLS winning the MVP and the tournament MVP, leading Inter Miami to the title.

5.  Tadej Pogacar.  The Slovenian won his 4th Tour de France in the past 6 years.

4.  Shohei Ohtani.  Easily won his 4th MVP award leading the Dodgers to the World Series title.  he even came back to pitch at the end of the season, portending a difficult year for everyone else in MLB.

3.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  The reigning NBA MVP led the OKC Thunder to the NBA title, and then turned around and started this season on a potential record-setting 29-5 pace.

2.  Rory McIlroy.  Finally won the Masters, and then led the European team to a Ryder Cup championship in a tournament that was nowhere near as close as its final score.

1.  A'ja Wilson.  She won her record-setting 4th WNBA MVP, and then won the WNBA Championship with the Las Vegas Aces - their third in the last 4 years - earning Finals MVP.

2025 - A REVIEW OF THE TOP SPORTS STORIES OF THE YEAR

 

Like every year, 2025 offered us a wide-assortment of stories from the world of sports.  This is my look back at the year that was.  Keep in mind this is not just a traditional list of events and winners - although those are included as well - but more of a testament to those people, events, stories and occurrences that affect sports and how we view it.  With that, let's start the list.

25.  Cam Little's 68-yard field goal.  The Jacksonville Jaguar kicker successfully hit the longest field goal in NFL history, breaking Justin Tucker's record of 66 yards.  This is important because it came after the institution of the K-Ball, which allows the kickers to kicker longer field goals more accurately, provided they have the requisite skill and leg strength.  I would not be surprised if this record is broken next season.

24.  TGL Debuts.  The Golf League debuted from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, in which teams of 4 players compete against each other, indoors, electronically and with a rotating and revolving green to simulate different holes.  

23.  J.J. Spaun wins the U.S. Open.  Not only is this Spaun's first major, but he won in dramatic fashion nailing almost every putt from any distance, and announcing himself as a legitimate threat on the PGA Tour for any tournament.

22.  Florida Panthers win second straight Stanley Cup.  The team brough a unique combination of skilled players, and brutally tough players - oftentimes the same players - to keep Lord Stanley in Fort Lauderdale.

21.  Inter Miami FC wins the MLS Cup.  Nobody really cares about the MLS, but Leonel Messi is the greatest soccer player of all time, and he capped a season in which he won the League MVP with a playoff MVP and a championship.

20.  Carlos Alcaraz wins French Open over Janik Skinner in Epic 5-Setter after being down 0-2.  This is seriously one of the best tennis matches of all time.  Only ranked this low because it was on clay.

19.  Scottie Scheffler wins The Open Championship.  The World's Best Golfer wins the World's most popular and oldest tournament.

18.  Mavericks trade Luka Doncic to the Lakers.  This absolutely shocking, astonishing, spell-binding trade was expected by absolutely nobody, and will likely affect the NBA for a decade plus.

17.  Clayton Kershaw's 3,000th strikeout.  As baseball strategy changes, after the current crop of aging stars, it may take an extremely long time to see another pitcher hit this plateau, if ever.

16.  Torpedo Bats.  The use of torpedo bats was the talk of the entire league in the spring, and the home runs flew out of ballparks because of it.  (See number 12).

15.  Janik Skinner wins Wimbledon.  As we transition away from the Big Three (Federer, Nadal and Djokovic - with Djokovic still hanging on to his top form a bit), all tennis fans are loving the Janik Skinner/Carlos Alcaraz future.  Skinner is on top now, but Alcaraz will be gunning for him in EVERY tournament.

14.  Sherrone Moore fired as Michigan football coach/then detainer by authorities.  Out of the blue, Michigan fired Moore for impregnating a staffer (allegedly), and he did not take the news well as he was later picked up for stalking.  This story is still playing out.

13.  Las Vegas Aces sweep Phoenix Mercury for WNBA Title.  The Aces cement their status in the pantheon of dynasties with this victory behind superstar and Athlete of the Year candidate A'ja Wilson.

12.  Shohei Ohtani/Aaron Judge MVPS.  This is the 4th MVP for Ohtani, and 2nd consecutive.  Judge won his 3rd, and 2nd consecutive.  This is the first time ever that both MVPs have won their league's award in back-to-back years.

11.  Inaugural 4-Nations Cup.  This international hockey tournament was a resounding success, especially with Conner McDavid scoring an OT winner for Canada over the United States in the final.

10.  NBA/WNBA Legends retire.  Diana Taurasi and Gregg Popovich retire, leaving the game as among the best player/coach to ever do it.

9.  Around the Horn's last show.  This remarkable run giving sports journalists a television way to present their argument on the day's sports happenings aired its last episode, and the sporting world will never be the same - especially in how it is covered by journalists.

8.  LA Dodgers win Epic 18-inning World Series game (and the Series).  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the World Series MVP after winning three of the four games in the series.

7.  Katie Ledecky at the World Swimming Championships.  Ledecky won her 7th consecutive gold medal in the 800-meter freestyle event - her 30th overall.

6.  Alex Ovechkin passes Wayne Gretzky for goals scored.  One of the more remarkable records in sports was taken by the Russian legend.

5.  Ryder Cup.  Europe continues its dominance over the United States, despite constantly being outranked by the US players.

4.  Lane Kiffin leaves Ole Miss for LSU.  So what - it's just a coaching change.  No, it isn't.  Kiffin's decision left the entire country on edge as he decided between staying, going to LSU or going to UF.  When he decided to coach in Baton Rouge, the Mississippi administration immediately gave him his walking papers, leaving the 6th-ranked team without its head coach for the upcoming playoffs.

3.  Plane Crash outside Washington National kills 67.  A military helicopter collided with a commuter plane carrying athletes, coaches, trainers, and family members from a national gymnastics competition as the plane approached Washington National Airport in suburban DC.  This accident unleased a political and socio-economic firestorm on the country.

2.  FBI arrests Chauncey Billups and Terry Rozier in Illegal Gambling Probe.  And no, it wasn't for fixing games.  Billups and Rozier reportedly recruited whales to play in illegal, underground, fixed poker matches for some alleged organized crime members.  This story will go for a couple of more years and I think we are going to hear a lot more details about this scheme.

1.  Rory McIlroy wins Masters.  The Northern Irish golfer finally earns the ever-elusive green jacket.

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 18

 

This season just gets weirder and weirder.  Forget the games, Stefon Diggs arrested on felony strangulation and misdemeanor assault.  This must have been so bad that his brother was fired by the Dallas Cowboys, WOW!  Anyway, I lost all momentum this past week thanks to the egg laid by the Los Angeles Rams.  That win, and I would have had a second winning week in a row.

Happy New Year to everybody, and remember, one last week until the playoffs!!!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically the teams are not much different from each other, with the one good part of Carolina's offense (11th in rushing) will go directly against the one good part of Tampa Bay's defense (7th in rushing).  The Buccaneers just don't look right the past few weeks, and Carolina is getting points.  Winner (mostly) is in the playoffs, with the caveat that if Tampa wins and Atlanta beats New Orleans - Carolina still makes the playoffs.  And yes, I know I am going against the home team on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

This game has all the makings of a phenomenal matchup, with the winner taking the #1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC (and a bye).  I am taking the home team on a short week as well as a home underdog in an intra-divisional matchup, so I like San Fran here.

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is still in the hunt for the #1 overall seed in the AFC, but this line is a lot of points given how scrappy the Titans have been (L8, W, L7, W in December).

Houston Texans -10 v. Indianapolis Colts

Houston could actually be the best team in the AFC.  They have the best Total Defense and the Best Scoring Defense, and now, they are going up against Riley Leaonard at QB.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I know, I know, I am giving points on the road in a divisional game, but this Cowboys team is just too potent when both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Bengals win this game, but I also think that Cleveland and its second-ranked defense keeps this close.  Does Myles Garrett tie or break the single-season sack record is the only thing that matters in this game (he needs 1/2 sack to tie).

 

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Yes Atlanta played on Monday, and I should take the Saints getting points due to Atlanta's short week, but if that same Falcons team that played Monday shows up Sunday, look out Saints.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

That Bears-49ers game last weekend was awesome.  Detroit has no reason to play this game, and even though they are professionals playing for Dan Campbell, it is hard to not subconsciously play less than 100%.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at New England Patriots

Just taking the points here.  Ewers does show promise, and Miami's running game is explosive.  Could keep it close.

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This Cardinals team is bad!  Rams need a bounce-back performance.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have lost 10 of their last 11.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills have looked rather pedestrian of late, but you know what they haven't looked like?  A team that had to bail out Stefon Diggs.  Plus, the Jets are awful.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs get an 8 catch, 117-yard, 2 touchdown performance from Travis Kelce in his last game in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers +12 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Yes, I know that Justin Herbert isn't playing, but 12 1/2 is a lot of points for a team that hasn't won by more than 8 points since October.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I sincerely think the Ravens will win this game, especially since Pittsburgh is without DK Metcalf.  But, I hate giving up points on the road, and I at least feel that this game could be close given that both defenses rank in the 20s in the NFL in Total Defense.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Malik Willis is playing for a contract/starting position somewhere - and some team SHOULD pick him up.

Last Week Record: 6-8-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 122-130-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,015) 

Ich bin Ein Berliner

 

As I reflect on this past year, I was fortunate to have finally visited Europe - twice even.  I went to Portugal (Lisbon and the Azores) in June for my brother's 40th birthday, and then back to Germany in September as my sister ran the Berlin marathon.  Here is a recap of 10 things I noticed in Germany.  Please note, I noticed way more than 10 things - some even important - but this list is of some unusual things that stood out.

10.  Berlin is not a very pretty city.  There might be a park here or there that is sightly, but overall, the city is not pretty.

9.  We didn't see a single GM or Ford vehicle.  There were a number of other recognizable non-German manufacturers visible (plus tons of German-made vehicles), but no Ford or GM.

8.  Most places do not serve orange juice - for breakfast or otherwise.

7.  Inside the city (or at least the many parts that I saw) - no visible gas stations.

6.  No pickup trucks.

5.  All taxi and ride-share drivers are adamant - USE YOUR BACKSEAT SEATBELT!!!

4.  Sirens all day/all night - Emergency vehicles in use nonstop.

3.  Graffiti everywhere!  Some very pretty works of art - but just everywhere.

2.  Trains/Subways are FREE!!!  I mean, they aren't, but there is nowhere to check-in, or turnstiles to scan your tickets.  Story is they do random checks with hefty fines if you don't have a ticket, but otherwise, I never saw any authority figures on the subways or trains.

1.  Berlin does not run-and-hide from its history, especially the Holocaust.  In fact, it embraces it as a memorial to what we should never let happen again.  To a lesser extent, the same with its East German history, but stories of Hitler and the Holocaust are EVERYWHERE!  Very emotionally-charged city because of it.

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 16

 

Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say.  OUCH!  (Well, besides "OUCH").

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game.  BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules:  (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle.  So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick.  But see the above analysis.  I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close.  UGH!

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog.  Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury. 

 

Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns

Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL.  But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears.  Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!

 

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants

If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well.  Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense).  So, I'll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means.  Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1.  If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.

Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run?  I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.

New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills.  Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up.  The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh).  So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great.  Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895)