Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Picks of the Week

This has been an incredibly interesting, which makes for horrible gambling odds, and yours truly has been affected, just like everyone else.  Average teams, like say the Buccaneers and Jets, look amazing one week, and horrendous the next.  Why can't average teams, just play average, so that we know what is going on.  Oh well, such is life.  Another .500 week, which I would ordinarily take, but it came along with my first big bet loss, so another week in the red.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons - 2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was an easy pick - but not an easy win.  Home team on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against New York Jets (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

The Jets defense, at least their pass defense, is starting to live up to its pre-season reputation, but unfortunately, the offense is struggling, and I don't think Aaron Rodgers (26 straight games under 300 yards passing) is the quarterback to turn this team around.  

Chicago Bears -4 v. Carolina Panthers

Yes, the Panthers seem to be much better with Andy Dalton behind center, but Carolina's bad defense may be just what Caleb Williams needs to get going after a 353 yard passing game (in a loss) followed by last week's win.  Chicago's defense is 5th in third-down percentage, which will be crucial in giving the offense as many possessions as needed.

New England Patriots +1 v. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offens has been struggling (23rd passing, 24th rushing, 24th overally, last in points), but nowhere near as bad as New England's (31st in points, last in pass defense and overall defense).  But, then again, Miami is on a short week.  Give me the point.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville has been THE disappointment this season.  But, they have to win at some point, right?  The Jaguars have the 10th best rushing defense and are playing a Colts team without Jonathan Taylor - although Trey Sermon has a lot of talent.  Conversely the Colts are 31st in rush defense, and Tank Bigsby has been punishing defensive lines off the bench.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Houston Texans

If I told you the Bills offense was actually struggling statistically, you would not believe me, but, they are 17th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 21st overall.  But somehow, they are second in scoring.  Houston has been great against the pass (4th), but they won't be able to stop Buffalo coming off their beating at the hands of Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I really tried to find a way to select Cincinnati as a home underdog, but I just couldn't.  Baltimore will be on a roll following their thrashing of the Bills to get to 2-2 after starting 0-2.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Washington has been playing too well - especially on offense where they are 6th overall, 3rd in scoring and 3rd in rushing offense) - to not pick them against a bad and boring Cleveland team what supposedly has Amari Cooper on the trade block.

Denver Broncos -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Denver has been playing games very close this year, even when they have looked bad.  Bo Nix looks like he has something, for sure.  The Raiders ... have a big Davante Adams problem ... and Gardner Minshew.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

Despite being great, San Francisco has not really overwhelmed this season, so 7 points seems like a lot of points to give to a team that looks like it has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, Jr. starting to click!

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. New York Giants

Seattle is on a short week, but New York is without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabors.  At least Seattle gets to stay at home.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

If the Jacksonville Jaguars did not exist, this Dallas Cowboys team would be the disappointment of the season.  Ezekial Elliott returned to the backfield and he just proved that the Cowboys were right to jettison him the first time.  Dallas hasn't run on anybody this year - last in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is tough to run on anyway (3rd best in the NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs - 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Given the Saints abilities to play to the level of their opponent, New Orleans seems like the safest bet here.  And when a bet seems too obvious, go the other way.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

I really wanted to pick Seattle here, but giving 7 points is a lot for a team on a short week.  Yes Green Bay lost last week, but Minnesota is legit, and the Rams are not.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-32-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($435)

 

Picks of the Week

 

This season has already been incredibly difficult, and not just for those of us who bet based on the point spread.  Ya'll really need to check on your friends that just pick winners/losers - they are not all right.  A .500 week, not great but I did win my big bet, so in the black for the week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -5 at New York Giants

My regular readers know that I hate picking a road intra-divisional favorite, and I hate picking the road team on a short week even more.  Why did I pick Dallas, then?  Well, the spread started at 6 1/2 and moved down to 5.  That means lots of money coming in on the Giants.  When that happens, go the opposite.  Didn't matter as this game pushed.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Bears offense may be generally unproductive, byt the Rams defense equally stinks.  This should provide an opportunity for the Bears to open some things up on offense and if unsuccessful, let the 7th ranked defense hold the Rams, especially since the Bears are second in 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

The NFL's number 1 defense versus the NFL's 31st ranked defense.  George Pickens with 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is expected to be active, but is he really going to be ready to play?

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is on a short week, and this Jaguars team may go down as one of the all-time disappointments in NFL history.  At least they didn't pay Trevor Lawrence recod-type money!  (Oh, never mind!)

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been a very good 1-2 team; and the Saints had one of the most impressive wins when they decimated Dallas in week 2.  This game likely turns on whether Alvin Kamara plays or not, but since he is playing right now - albeit questionable - gotta take these points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are going to disappint until they learn: (1) To get the  ball more to Mike Evans; and (2) play Bucky Irving more in the run game.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Denver Broncos +8 at New York Jets

The Jets we expected to see under Aaron Rodgers showed up last week, and could be areal contender.  I just don't like the 8 points, and Denver dismantled Tampa Bay last week, and play Pittsburgh tight the week prior.  This could be really close.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Rookie quarterback playing in his first short week, and on the road.

San Francisco 49ers -10 v. New England Patriots

I despise taking double digit favorites, but San Francisco is coming off two straight upset losses, so they need to really take control of a game.  In addition, this Patriots team stinks.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am a big Antonio Pierce fan, and I belive him when he says he is not going to put up with the effort the Raiders gave last week; except then Davante Adams went out with a hanstring injury, and I am not sure where Las Vegas gets its offensive energy and emotion.  Cleveland is not very good either, but they overmatch the Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Justin Herbert's injury, and even though he is playing he could be hobbled.  But I also know that the Chargers have the 7th-best rushing offense in the NFL and the 6th best total defense in the NFL.  And yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they have not been that impressive of a 3-0 team.  Even if I win, I think this game is within a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

To me, Buffalo has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year.  But, Baltimore should be more motivated, as they NEED this game.  Yes, this early in the season and they NEED a win.  Plus, Buffalo is on a short week, of which I expect the Ravens to take advantage.

Tennessee Titans +2 /2 v. Miami Dolphins

I know what Tennessee brings to the table this year; and it isn't good.  What I don't know is what Tyler Huntley brings to the table this year.  When there is uncertainty like this, I take the points.

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Two legitimate playoff teams clashing on Monday night.  A great time to watch football.  I am taking the points with Seattle primarily because Seattle is the third-best passing offense in the league, and Detroitis 19th in pass defense.  And yes, Detroit has a great offense (4th in total offense; 4th in rushing offense; 7th in passing offense), but Seattle is second in total defense (1st in passing defense).  I'll take the points.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Although I am not sold on Carolina overall, for my big bet I like to take a home team whenever possible, and if they are getting points even better.  I thought about the Chargers for that reason, but I don't like betting big against Patrick Mahomes.  I also considered Philadelphia, but that violates both of my preferences.  Five points is a decent amount, so I make this bet, hope and believe that Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson provide the Red Rifle with as much support as he needs, and trust that Cincy's short week hurts them.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($200)

 

Picks of the Week

So it only took until Week 2 for me to have my first horrendous week.  Thank goodness for the Big Bet!  But, I am not alone, as tons of people worldwide suffered last week.  If you are in a Survivor Pool, odds are, you are out.  Something like 25% of all people in Survivor Pools hosted by known and available sites (like ESPN, CBS, etc.) remain after two weeks.  That is ridiculous, and that is just picking winners, not even accounting for the spread.  Let's see if we can have a bounce back week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +6 1/2 at New York Jets

I had no allusions that the Patriots would win this game, but the Jets had looked underwhelming, at best, in the first two weeks, to the point where I was wondering if they might just be overrated.  They handled their business.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

They have to start playing offense at some point, right?  And, if there was any time to try to limit the pressure on Caleb Williams and run the ball, it would be this week against the team last in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 237 yards per game so far, and, with star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner out for the game.  Caleb Williams also throws his first touchdown pass today, and the Bears defense remains at a high level.  Anthony Richardson can make big plays with his arm and legs, but he is also erratic with his arm, and this Bears secondary is no joke.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 v. Denver Broncos

I know the Broncos are rocking with a rookie quarterback and they will experience growing pains, but they have no identity on offense.  Their defense has been pretty stout to start the season, but one of those games was against the Steelers.  Baker Mayfield is playing at a high, high level, and the Bucs will score against Denver.

Houston Texans -2 at Minnesota Vikings

This is an incredibly difficult line, as both teams are playing well to start the season.  Sam Darnold is turning out better than almost everyone thought so far, but Houston's defense is imporved to an elite level like its offense.  I don't like giving up points on the road, but I will here.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This game is also difficult to pick, but for much different reasons, primarily that Justin Herbert is a game-time decision, and the report from Adam Shefter just now is that we still don't know if he will play, and won't know until the Chargers take the field.  So, I just have to take a deep breath, block out all of the noise, and realize that the betting rules say to take the east coast home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 game slot anyway, so I am .

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

My initial thought was to take the points and the Eagles, given that the Eagles must be so angry at how their Monday Night game against the Falcons ended.  Then I realized that ... the Eagles played Monday night!!!  This is a short week.  This is a great time to pick the resurrected career of Derek Carr!

Green Bay Packers +3 at Tennessee Titans

Green Bay bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the Eagles with a Week 2 win against the Colts, and I am not sure what either of those mean.  What I am sure of is that Tennessee lost to both the Bears and the Jets, and they are giving points today.  Green Bay controls the clock, and the game, and probably wins outright.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Both offenses are BAD!  New York's defense is BAD!  Cleveland's defense is meh.  I feel like this should be a lower line, but I am going to give the points anyway, because I just have a feeling that this Giants team is going backwards, fast.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Miami Dolphins2

The Dolphins defense is legitmiate, and defense always travels.  The problem is that an offense led by Skylar Thompson probably doesn't - even with weapons like Devon Achane and Tyreek Hill.  Seattle is also out Kenneth Walker, but relying on Geno Smith is much easier to do than to rely on Skylar Thompson.

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Is it possible that the move from Bryce Young to the experienced Andy Dalton does allow the Panthers' offense to coalesce a bit around its established players and finally get Diontae Johnson involved, of course.  Am I betting that this time is not a total trainwreck?  No, I am not.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Dallas Cowboys

A team as talented as this Ravens squad cannot start the season 0-3 right?  RIGHT?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I am getting points for a home team in an intradivisional rivalry game where the visiting team is missing its starting running back, starting wide receiver, and starting tight end, all of whom are in the tops at their position in the league.  I still think that with Jordan Mason, the 49ers can win this game, but 6 1/2 points seems a bit much.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played fantastic against the Rams last week, and host Detroit who lost a game the team thinks it should have won last week against the Buccaneers.  Will that make Detroit more motivated?  Of course - I mean it has Dan Campbell.  That extra fire in the game is what compels this road win.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It might be soul-searching time for the Jaguars vis-a-vis a decision about what to do with this squad going forward.  Do they have talent?  Absolutely.  Is some of that talent as good as they are being paid?  Absolutely not.  And the team has put together a mish-mash of offensive talent that doesn't necessarily jell together.  But, you know what team knows exactly who they are?  The Buffalo Bills.

Washington Commanders +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati should win this game, and maybe even handily.  But, there are a lot of things that look good for Washington going forward ... Jayden Daniels looks like he belongs, he is due for his first passing touchdown, and McLaurin needs to break open for the rookie to have a true #1 target.  All of these happen late in the fourth quarter for a back-door cover!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

I generally prefer home teams for my Big Bet, and I also prefer them receiving points, or it being a close point spread, but this bet is too good to pass up.  The Kansas City offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes, so the Isaiah Pacheco injury isn't going to hurt too much.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week.  I feel confident that the Chiefs can outgun Atlanta, even with their injuries.

Record

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  13-17-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($270)

 

Picks of the Week

Well, not a great start to the NFL season, but finished in the black in Week 1, and I will take that every week.  Plus, I got a good start to week 2 by ignoring the standard betting rules, who knew?  I didn't think that Tua would be conucssed, but I did think Buffalo would roam all over the Dolphins.  Let's see if I can keep that momentum up!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, we are supposed to take the home team on a short week, but Buffalo had beated Miami 13 out of 15 times, and with Dolphins' running backs Raheem Mostert (out) and Devan Achane (questionable) injured, who is going to run the ball for the Dolpins?

New Orleans Saints +6 at Dallas Cowboys

Caution - this is likely an overreaction to Week 1, where New Orleans had the best peformance of any team.  But, maybe they are better than we thought and they can keep this one close?  Dallas is going to have problems running the ball this year, so I think the Saints could cover.

Baltimore Ravens - 8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The way the Ravens played in week 1, they beat alomost everyone not named Kansas City.  That and with thh Raiders being in the Pacific time zone and travelling east for the 1:00 game, I'll take Baltimore, even though I would have liked this spread to be 6 1/2 points.

Washington Commanders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Jayden Daniels' potential makes this game tolerable.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I HATE this bet.  HATE IT, HATE IT, HATE IT!  But, I already violated the betting rule on Thursday by taking the visiting team on a short week, no way I can do it twice.  This rule is always take the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot when playing a Pacific coast team traveling east.

Indianapolis Coltes -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

My first road favorite, UGH!  But, we know what we are getting with Anthony Richardson.  Some mediocre throws, a low completion percentage, but some WOW plays.  We also know what we are getting with the Packers - Malik Willis!

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers placed Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve, but as we saw last week, Jordan Mason is more than capable of stepping into the lead back roll.  Minnesota played really well last week, and Sam Darnold looked GREAT!  But, that San Francisco defense is something else.  Look ma, a second straight road favorite.  It's a good thing Minnesota is only in the central time zone.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Both teams looked rather inept offensively last week.  The difference is that Jacksonville has players that are more likely to show last week was a fluke.

New England Patriots +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Taking an east coast home underdog playing a Pacific time zone team, YES PLEASE!  But, that makes three this week, so odds are I lose one of them - probably Carolina.

Tennessee Titans +4 v. New York Jets

Jordan Mason and the San Francisco 49ers just ran through the supposedly vaunted Jets defensive front 7.  I bet Tennessee wishes they still had Derrick Henry!  That being said, the Jets offense did not look so great, either, and the Titans defense looked strong.  Granted, it was against the Bears inept offense, but part of their ineptness was the defense played by Tennessee.  I don't know if they will win outright, but this game should be close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are REALLY, REALLY good.  But, don't underestimate Tampa Bay.  I feel like Baker Mayfield has been underestimated his whole career and always rises to the challenge.  Eight points is way too high of a line for this game.

Los Angeles Rams pick 'em at Arizona Cardinals

Vegas has this one right in that this game could go either way.  Both defenses were bad last week, but the Rams offense seems smoother, as Arizona still is trying to incorporate rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr.  For that reason, I'll take Arizona.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver cannot play as bad as they did last week, right?  I do believe, however, that Pittsburgh can.  Steelers 21-20.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City already looks in mid-season form.  J'Marr Chase has called off contract extension talks, meaning it is likely he hits free agency.

Houston Texans -6 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears offense looked atrocious.  At least their defense looked amazing.  But, Houston is much better than Tennessee offensively, so I don't think this is going to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins is notoriously bad in prime time games, and he was already bad last week.  When do the "Michael Penix, Jr." chants start?  Philly looked good last week.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are REALLY, REALLY good.  But, don't underestimate Tampa Bay.  I feel like Baker Mayfield has been underestimated his whole career and always rises to the challenge.  Eight points is way too high of a line for this game.

The bet here should be Houston, but I cannot do that to myself.  I will take 8 points, and take them happily.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  8-7-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $180

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $180

Picks of the Week

HOORAY!!!  THE NFL is back.  And for what it's worth, it starts with what is expected to be a humdinger of a game as the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year's AFC title game.  So, not only is this game important for bragging rights among the NFL's elite, but could also be important for home-field advantage in the playoffs.  Love the NFL, and I am so happyit is back!  Let's get to the games ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

No short week, since this is week 1, so the home team rule doesn't apply.  Plus, there is usually a bit of  a Super Bowl hangover, especially when the quarterback doesn't really yet know his new receivers, plus a rookie left tackle.  And, the best way to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs is to control the ball and win the time of possession.  Enter Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles - 2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers (in Sao Paulo, Brazil)

The NFL's first game in Brazil, and it's on a Friday.  Excitement, excitement.  Plus, the soccer team that generally plays its home games in the stadium in which this game will be played has a rival which primarily wears green.  Yeah, this is going to be great.  Adding Saquon Barkley - if truly healthy - to this Eagles offense makes them super scary.  They win big.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

New quarterback in Caleb Williams, along with a revamped offense which sees DeAndre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore as offensive weapons makes this team incredibly hopeful for a playoff run, similar to the Texans of last season.  To do that, they have to win at home against a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry, and might just be drifting listlessly in mediocrity.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

A new head coach that might actually use Bijan Robinson against a defense that despite T.J. Watt's numbers was actually pretty poor last year?  Yes, please.  Sprinkle in a little "Noon Nightmare" now starting at quarterback for Atlanta in Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at New York Giants

I hate road favorites, but this line is too small too worry about that.  I might be the only one that thinks Sam Darnold showed that he is an actual NFL quarterback in Carolina for a bit (not a star mind you, but serviceable), and sometimes all you need to be is serviceable with Justin Jefferson on the end of your passes.  I think the Giants could be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and this game could show whether that is true or no.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

I think this game could be really close, so I am taking the points.  Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower, and some studs on defense.  The Dolphins secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Kendell Fuller, Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland are among the best, if not the best, in the NFL.  The newly glossed Josh Hines-Allen IS one of the best defenders in the NFL for Jacksonville.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. New England Patriots

There is absolutely no reason to watch this game unless you have money on it or play fantasy.  Cincinnati should roll.  Do not let J'Marr Chase's practice holdout worry you.  He can go!

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

West coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time zones fail to cover 2/3rds of the time.  And yes, Arizona is only in the Mountain Time Zone, except they do not use Daylight Savings Time, so they are 3 hours behind.  I am interested in watching both rookie wide receivers:  Marvin Harrison, Jr. for Arizona and Keon Coleman for Buffalo.

Houston Texans -3 at Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 and I am already breaking a traditional NFL gambling rule - don't bet a road favorite in an intradivisional game.  However, I am doing this BECAUSE it is week 1, and that is where we can most take advantage of undervalue (or overvalued lines).  Houston added Danielle Hunter to an already potent defensive line, which could make Anthony Richardson rush throws - and we already know from college he can be incredibly inaccurate.  Plus, it is week 1, which makes it waaaaay too early for Stefon Diggs to start ruining a team's season.  That usually starts around week 11.

Carolina Panthers +4 at New Orleans Saints

This bet is not so much aboute Carolina improving - although they should (I mean, they HAVE to, right?) - as much as I do not think New Orleans is going to be good at all.  I mean, they have like only 6 or 7 players that any other team might want.  I feel I would take the points in this game, no matter which team was receiving them.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I really have no idea what this year has in store for either of these teams.  Just taking the home team, really, because Justin Herbert has to be better than Gardner Minshew, right?

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Denver Broncos

There are a lot of people high on the Denver Broncos, especially given Bo Nix's preseason.  Most of those people are intrigued by his fantasy numbers, and not necessarily the actual football games.  I will wait for a few games unitl I consider myself impressed yet.  For now, I'll just say that Patrick Surtain II cannot cover DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, AND Jaxson Smith-Njigba.  Denver is going to have to improve a defense that gave up a million yards and 1,300 points to the Bears and Dolphins last year (please not hyperbole).

Washington Commanders +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another hyped rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, takes the helm for the Commanders.  Washington played a ton of close games last year, while throwing more pass attempts than any team in the league.  Daniels can make things happen with his legs should a pass attempt break down, and he is incredibly accurate.  Like all rookie quarterbacks, he will have some setbacks, but I think he keeps this game close, at least.

Dallas Cowboys + 3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Forget playoff failures, this Cowboys team does have talent; and certainly enough talent to win this game outright, so I'll take points.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

This Detroit Lions team seems poised to make a jump to Super Bowl contender this year, and has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  The Rams have some star skill position players in Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua, and the venerable Matthew Stafford throwing to them, and they are going to need to score as many points as they can given their (lack of) defensive makeup.  Aaron Donald, in the conversation as the greatest DT ever, retired, and it is going to be hard to find a replacement for that push up the middle.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. New York Jets

Until we see otherwise, San Francisco is a definitive pick most weeks.  The Jets defense can be outstanding, and Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are potential stars on the offensive side of the ball.  Can Aaron Rodgers stay on the field for more than a quarter AND keep his mouth shut?  We shall see.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

New quarterback in Caleb Williams, along with a revamped offense which sees DeAndre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore as offensive weapons makes this team incredibly hopeful for a playoff run, similar to the Texans of last season.  To do that, they have to win at home against a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry, and might just be drifting listlessly in mediocrity.

I am all in on this team for this game:  Home game hype, #1 overall draft pick QB hype, tons of offensive weapons, and a team defense that was the best in the NFL once Head Coach Matt Eberflus took over play-calling in the middle of the season and Montez Sweat came over from the Commanders in a mid-season trade.  If Sweat can get any modicum of pressure from the other side of the line via DeMarcus Walker or rookie fifth-round pick Austin Booker, opposing offenses will have to look out all season.

As this is week 1, I present to you last season's final tally.

Last Year's Recap

Year-to-Date Record:  169-128-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-13
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $200.50

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,355.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,450.50

Record

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Olympics - Paris 2024 - Day 19

Day 19 - August 10, 2024

For these entire Olympics I have been able to mention a type of controversy that was brewing from that day, whether it be political, event-related, or imagined - but something each day became a story that people disscussed that wasn't about the competition.  I have refrained from mentioning the biggest one because it is disgusting and I did not want to even mention the man's name.  But, since I have made it to the end without doing so, I am going to mention the story so that you - my readers - know that I am not ignoring it to ignore it, but rather was purposefully trying not to add to the publicity of Steven van de Velde.  Van de Velde is a beach volleyball player from the Netherlands that was convicted of child rape in 2016 in England.  The incidents occurred when he was 19 and the child was 12.  He was transferred from prison in England to the Netherlands and was after serving only 13 months of a 4-year sentence.  He qualified for the Netherlands beach volleyball team, and participated in the Olympics, where he was booed more than cheered, the latter part to which I say - way to go Olympic attendees and fans.

Today was the last day of the Olympics, with only a few medal events being played and I will begin with the most exciting event of the day, the women's basketball gold medal match between the United States and host France.  The United States, led by A'ja Wilson, narrowly defeated France 67-66, to keep their 61 game winning streak in the Olympics in tact, as well as their 8th straight gold medal.  This games was very sloppy, and physical, and the scored showed it, but Wilson had 21 points and 13 rebounds, and Kahleah Copper and Kelsey Plum each had 12 points coming off the bench.  Kelsey Plum follows-up her gold medal in 3x3 from Tokyo with this year's basketball gold medal.  Australia defeated Belgium for the bronze medal.

In women's volleyball, Italy defeated the United States 3-0, cementing itself as the best volleyball team in the world by unseating the defending gold medalists.

In the water, the United States men salvaged the bronze medal over Hungary by winning the shootout 3-0.  Serbia won the gold over Croatia 13-11.

In the men's team handball gold medal game, Denmark absolutely dominated Germany, winning 39-26.  Spain beat Slovenia for the bronze.

At the velodrome, American Jennifer Valente won the omnium, which is a points conglomeration of 4 different cycling events; the scratch race, tempo race, elimination race and points race.  The women's scratch race is a 7.5 kilometer race, with points being awarded to cycleists based upon their finish.  The tempo race is a complicated race where riders earn points by winning sprints during each lap and by lapping the field whereas riders who are lapped are deducted points.  The winning rider is the one that accumulates the most points, not the one that finishes first.  The elimination race is a race in which the field participates in a sprint race every other lap, and the last place finisher is dropped - or eliminated - from the competition.  The rider that lasts the longets wins this race.  The points race is exactly that, a points race.  This is an 80 lap race with a spring every 10 laps.  The winners of laps accumulate points (5,3,2,1) or a rider gains 20 points for lapping the field.  The winner is the rider that accumulates the most points in all four races, and that was Jennifer Valente!  Poland's Daria Pikulik won silver and Ally Wollaston of Australia earned bronze.

On the wrestling mat, American Kennedy Blades lost to Japan's Kagami Yuka 3-1 in the gold medal match, to win the silver medal.

The best performance yesterday belonged to Sifan Hassan of the Netherlands, who won the marathon gold medal ahead of Ethiopia's Tigst Assefa (silver) and Hellen Obiro of Kenya (bronze).  This came on the heels of already winning bronze in both the 5,000 meters and the 10,000 meters earlier in the week.  This is the first time a female has won medals in all three distance races, and the only runner since Emil Zatopek of then-Czechoslovakia to achieve this feat in Helsinki 1952.

I may end up doing a wrap-up post, or perhaps a post on the Closing Ceremonies, with the former more likely than the latter, but for now, it's on the Los Angeles in 2028.

Athlete of the Day - Sifan Hassan, Netherlands, Athletics

She won the gold medal in the marathon after already competing in the 5,000 meters and 10,000 meters earlier this week, and won the bronze medal in all of them.

U.S. Athlete of the Day - Jennifer Valente, USA, Cycling

Won her second gold of these Olympics in the Omnium, a series of races combining speed, endurance, and recovery.

Team of the Day - Denmark Men, DEN, Handball

Just absolutely dominated the gold medal match.

U.S. Team of the Day - USA Women, USA, Basketball

Despite all the pressure of a 60-game winning streak and a 7 consecutive gold medal streak, along with playing in front of a raucous crowd dying for a upset of the US juggernaut by France, the U.S. women managed to pull-out the gold medal 67-66.

Olympic Term of the Day:  clean-and-jerk; snatch - Both are weightlifting terms.  The former is a two-movement lift in which the weight is raised to shoulder level, and then raised above the head in a second movement.  The latter is a one motion lift in which the competitor takes the barbell from the ground overhead in one continuous motion.

Olympic Events Watched:  Basketball, Closing Ceremonies, Cycling, Handball, Water Polo