Picks of the Week

 

Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point.  (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.)  So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move.  Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Home team on a short week.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are  young.  Oh yeah, and Johnson is out.  Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders

I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here.  Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points.  For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing.  They just don't have enough firepower.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team.  However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.)  Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets

This is preposterous.  An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle.  However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league.  That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted.  Now, the Jets are 14th in passing.  The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense.  Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.

New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts

These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time.  They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close.  Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.  Plus, Darren Waller is out.

Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers

A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right.  But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's.  Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL.  As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense.  The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense.  Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot.  Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL.  Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team.  Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle.  This kid is a star!

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first.  Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential.  These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league.  Both have pretty good to great defenses.  I'll just take points.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints

Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end.  They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans.  Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints.  Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game.  My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet.  No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread.  But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college.  A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly.  Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.)  If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.

Last Week's Record:  7-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-2-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($280)

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

A very good home team getting points in the opening weekend?  I'll take them.  We saw how that turned out!  Ugh.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is not a homer bet.  The Bears don't look to be a very good team by most prognostications, but do we really know what The 49ers have in Trey Lance?  No.  Do we know what the Bears have in Justin Fields?  Also know.  I'll take the almost touchdown.

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I have changed my mind many times on this game.  I think that Jalen Hurts has a chance to be VERY good, and now the Eagles have added A.J. Brown as a weapon on the outside.  But I keep remembering just how tough Detroit has played damn near everyone since Dan Campbell arrived as head coach, and they are at home.  Philadelphia may win, but Detroit keeps it close.

Houston Texans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Admittedly this is just a chance to continue the run of selecting home underdogs.  Colts still win, but this game has backdoor cover all over it.

Celveland Browns pick 'em Carolina Panthers

So, some road teams are going to win, right?  Might as well pick the one that doesn't have to give up points!  (And the one that has Nick Chubb AND Kareem Hunt!)  Baker will have a chip on his shoulder, but we won't really iknow what we are getting from Christian McCaffrey coming off his injury, and how Baker is going to gel with the receivers.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Damn it feels good to type that.  Even if it wasn't perhaps the best choice.  It beats having to type "Football Team" as well as "Racists" as in the past.  For that reason alone, and the fact that even with the Chase Young injury Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat make up the fiercest defensive line - meaning the entire line - in the NFL.

New England Patriots +3 at Miami Dolphins

Do I believe that the Dolphins are much improved, especially with the addition of Tyreek Hill?  Yes I do.  Do I also believe that Tuaniggamanuolepola Tagovailoa will also be improved with the confidence of the team and being the undisputed started?  Yes, I do.  Do I believe that these are the type of circumstances where Bill Belichick loves to screw with opposing teams, opposing coaches' minds, opposing fans, and also the betting lines?  Definitely.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, Cincinnati is coming off of a phenomenal playoff run.  Yes, the seem to have improved their number 1 weakness from last year, the offensive line.  But, seems doesn't block T.J. Watt, and Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati both times they played last year.  AND, it looks like Pittsburgh will have a more-than-competent quarterback this year.  (Did I just say that about Mitchell Trubisky?)

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at New York Jets

I cannot pick all of the home underdogs, right?  On paper Lamar Jackson is just so much better than the New York Jets.  I mean, it isn't like the Ravens secretary is full of Zach Wilson's mom's friends!  Only question is where is Jackson's mindset after the team and Jackson could not come to terms on an extension.  I think Jackson will be out to prove that he is worth as much as any quarterback in the league.  Think about it, he is the only NFL MVP from the QB position to have won the award before he turned 23.

Atlanta Falcons + 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

This bet seems too easy.  New Orleans all the way.  I hate this bet.  I cannot believe that I am putting it on "paper."  But, I have this feeling we might get to see Desmond Ridder, and Jameis Winston could always thrown 4 or 5 picks.  (He could also throw 4 or 5 interceptions too.)  Home divisional rival getting points.  God do I hate this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in opening games, having thrown 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  That continues today.  Arizona strengthened its WR corps by adding Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is suspended and Rondale Moore is out.  Zach Ertz is also questionable.  Juju Smith-Schuster has an amazing game.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Lots of bets against the Giants from me unless and until Saquon Barkley proves he can play a full complement of plays each-and-every game at the original Saquon Barkley level.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

What is a Romeo Doubs?  Still, I make this pick with trepidation as you can never be confident betting against Aaron Rodgers.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

How many sacks can Joey Bosa earn playing opposite Khalil Mack?  Robert Quinn had 18 1/2 last year.  Chargers are my early pick to win the AFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I have changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I don't like the line.  I don't like trying to figure out how Tampa is going to be with apossibly still ailing Chris Godwin and an aging Julio Jones.  I do love the situation Cameron Brate finds himself in, though.  Six or 7 catches for him today!

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 at Seattle Seawhawks

Big number for a divisional rival - wait - they haven't been rivals for a long time.  And Seattle looks like they are going to stink!!!  I have no qualms about picking this road favorite.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, when selecting a big bet, I always try to find a home team, and either getting points or giving away a small number.  Lots of home teams getting points this week.  But, I found a game getting points on the road, but with a big number that stands out to me.  An intra-divisional rivalry in which the number is inflated because of Cincinnati's playoff run last year.  (They were not the best team in the AFC - they just got hot at the right time.)  And although Cincinnati may have improved, it looks like Pittsburgh did as well.  Watch for George Pickens' to have his coming-out party, if not this week, then soon!!!

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):