Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2

I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders

So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots

Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets

I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns

Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

The Ole College Try

The Conference Championships sorted out the entire college football playoff for us, with no real arguments as to the contenders.

Game of the Week

Oklahoma Sooners - Baylor Bears 23 (Big 12 Championship Game).  The Baylor Bears proved that this season was not a fluke as they played favorite Oklahoma to a virtual draw, once again.  The Sooners scored a touchdown in overtime that Baylor, playing with a third string quarterback whose name was not even on the depth chart provided to the media - Jacob Zeno, could not reciprocate.  Jalen Hurts once again is a conference champion, although this time of the Big 12 and not the SEC, but wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was the showstopper.  I am certain he will make my All-American team later this month.

Best Team Performance

Clemson Tigers.  Not only did the overwhelming favorites in the ACC Championship game beat Virginia, they destroyed them 62-17.  Trevor Lawrence passed for 302 yards, Travis Etienne rushed for 114 yards and Tee Higgins had 182 yards receiving as the Tigers annihilated the Cavaliers, sending them to their doomed Orange Bowl game against Florida.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Hawaii Rainbows.  I don't want to pile on too much on the Virginia Cavaliers here, so Hawaii gets the nod as they lost to Boise State in a non-competitive Mountain West Championship 31-10.

A special mention goes to the Utah Utes, who underwhelmed in their 37-15 defeat at the hands of Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.  Had Utah won, it would have been a really interesting discussion as to whether Utah or Oklahoma would receive the final playoff berth.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

CeeDee Lamb, WR - Oklahoma Sooners.  Lamb finished the Big 12 Championship game with 8 catches for 173 yards, but honestly, with only 1 71 yard catch in the first quarter he takes this award.  Check it out here.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

LSU Tigers.  This is a collective award this week, because after being somewhat maligned for giving up a large amount of points, the LSU defense has buckled down and tightened up, allowing Georgia to only score 10 in the SEC Championship game.  LSU will be heavy favorites in the national semi-final.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

I was really hoping that someone would make or miss a kick that would cause chaos for the playoffs, but that didn't happen.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Utah Utes.  They could have made the playoff scenarios way more interesting, but they did not.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Kyle Wittingham, Utah Utes.  Same as above, we simply just wanted to see chaos, and Utah failed to deliver.

Breakthrough Performance

C.J. Verdell, RB - Oregon Ducks.  On a team led by supposed to have been the overall number 1 draft pick last year quarterback Justin Herbert, Verdell dominated the Pac-12 Championship game by gaining 208 yards and scoring 3 TDS on 18 carries.

Finally

Trevor Lawrence, QB - Clemson Tigers.  It seems incredulous to say that a national championship winning quarterback is "finally" playing well, but truth be told, he started slowly, and even when he played well as of late, Clemson has not been challenged.  In the ACC championship game, Lawrence looked like Lawrence, going 16-22 for 302 yards and 4 TDs.

Impact Injury

Tua Tagavailoa, QB - Alabama.  The biggest "what if" of the season.

Team Rising

Baylor Bears.  Yes, they lost in the Big 12 Championship game, but by following up their narrow loss to Oklahoma just weeks ago, with taking them to overtime in the Big 12 Championship game, Baylor proved that they are a legitimate team and were a legitimate playoff contender this year.

Team Falling

Utah Utes.  I should not have to type it out again.

Player(s) to Watch

Justin Fields, QB - Ohio State Buckeyes.  Of the two quarterbacks who have not played in the playoffs previously (Lawrence and Hurts having won championships), Justin Fields is the only first year starter.  And, with apologies to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Travis Etienne, Fileds has the best running back on his team, which means Ohio State will have an opportunity to go far, perhaps even win, the championship if Fields plays well.

My New Favorite Player

Jacob Zeno, QB - Baylor Bears.  Zeno, an apparent fourth, fifth or sixth string quarterback who was not even listed on the team depth chart sent to the media prior to the Big 12 playoff game, entered the game after an injury to the starting quarterback and poor performance by the backup.  Although Zeno did not set the world on fire, he helped keep Baylor in the game with his 2-6 for 159 yards and 1 TD.  Good by you Mr. Zeno.

Players of the Week

6.  Levi Lewis, QB - Louisiana Rajun Cajuns - Lewis was 24-46 for 364 yards and 4 TDs as Louisiana fell to Appalachian State 45-38 in the Sun Belt Championship game.

5.  Tee Higgins, WR - Clemson Tigers.  Higgins caught 8 passes for 162 yards and 3 TDs as Clemson coasted to the ACC Championship.

4.  Joe Burrow, QB - LSU Tigers.  Burrow was 28-38 for 349 yards and 4 TDs as LSU defeated Georgia 37-10 in the SEC Championship game.

3.  C.J. Verdell, RB - Oregon Ducks.  See attached.

2.  J.K Dobbins, RB - Ohio State Buckeyes.  Dobbins rushed for 172 yards and scored 1 TD in Ohio State's Big 10 Championship win over Wisconsin Badgers.

1.  CeeDee Lamb, WR - Oklahoma Sooners.  See above.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

LSU Tigers (1) v. Oklahoma Sooners (4)/ (2) Ohio State Buckeyes v. (3) Clemson Tigers

Remaining Unbeatens

Clemson, LSU, Ohio State

Remaining Winless Team

Akron - Only winless team on the year, as Akron has finished its season.

Rant(s) of the Week

Damn you Utah Utes!!!

Last Week's Trivia Answer

Last week's question was:

Since the Iron Bowl was important this week, the question is how many consecutive times has Auburn won the Iron Bowl when the game was played at Jordan-Hare Stadium and both teams entered the game ranked in the AP Poll?

The answer is 7.

Match up(s) to Watch

1. Army v. Navy - Not only is this a phenomenal game to watch year-in-and-year-out, it is also the only game next week.

Trivia Question of the Week

Two questions this week:

1.  Ohio State's wide receiver K.J. Hill broke the school career reception record in the Big 10 Championship game.  Which Buckeye receiver's record did he break?

2.  LSU's Joe Burrow set the single season SEC record for most touchdown passes thrown.  Which SEC quarterback had the previous record?

The Ole College Try

LSU-Florida was tough but this week was all about Georgia losing, or should I say South Carolina winning.  Throws the SEC east into a scramble with Missouri - you read that correctly Missouri - the team that lost to Wyoming in first place.  Some other undefeateds loss, and the biggest loser of all might have been Notre Dame. 

Game of the Week

South Carolina 20 - Georgia 17. Georgia outgains a game South Carolina team that lost its starting quarterback, who was actually the backup quarterback before they lost their original starting quarterback.  Despite being thoroughly outplayed, South Carolina forced Jake Fromm into 3 interceptions and 1 fumble and held on to a tie game.  South Carolina failed to score in the initial overtime, but then the defense forced its last Fromm turnover to keep the game tied. South Carolina, with the ball first in the second overtime, settles for a field goal, which Georgia could not reciprocate when potential All-American Rodrigo Blankenship missed a game-tying field goal from just over 30 yards - his second miss of the game.

Best Team Performance

Clemson Tigers. After a couple of poor performances that saw the Tigers slip from first to second in the polls, Clemson came out fast and strong to thoroughly annihilate the Florida State Seminoles 45-14. Not that Florida State has been great this year, but they had been playing better the last couple of weeks and they do have some athletes.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Michigan State Spartans.  The Spartans entered Madison an underdog, and in that they did not disappoint.  Wisconsin, even behind a subpar performance statistically from start Jonathan Taylor, ransacked Michigan State 38-0.  It was Wisconsin's 4th shutout in 6 games this year.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

CeeDee Lamb, WR - Oklahoma.  Often overlooked by the trio in Alabama, Lamb asserted his dominance in the Big 12 with a magnificent 10 catch, 171 yards and 3 touchdown performance, with 2 of the touchdown catch-and-runs being of the Wow variety as he made some tacklers miss, and ran through others.  If you have not seen these plays - go find them, NOW!

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Israel Mukuamu, DB - South Carolina Gamecocks.  Mukuamu was a one-man wrecking ball against Georgia, and he was easily the best player on the field in the Gamecocks' upset.  He had 11 tackles, 7 of the solo variety, 3 interceptions, and returned one of the interceptions for a touchdown.  In a 20-17 overtime game, a defensive touchdown is more than huge, it is critically important.  Mukuamu's reward is the Florida Gators coming off a loss next week.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Blanton Creque, K - Louisville Cardinals.  For the second week in a row.  His 41 yard field goal with 2:15 remaining in the game iced Louisville's victory over previously undefeated Wake Forest by giving the Cardinals a 10 point lead.  This was huge as Wake Forest did march down the field to score a touchdown with 1:05 left to cut the lead to 3.  Creque hit all 10 - that's right 10 - of his kicks in what would have been the game of the week most weeks.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Rodrigo Blankenship, K - Georgia.  His missed 37-yard field goal cemented Georgia's first loss, and likely their playoff chances.  Georgia still could make the playoffs by winning out (including defeating Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship), but they might still need help.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Mark Dantonio - Michigan State.  Not for anything goat like that he has done, he just looks like he has lost the team, or the team has absolutely frustrated him.  Perhaps both.

Breakthrough Performance

Kenneth Murray, LB - Oklahoma Sooners.  Murray had 5 total tackles, including 1 sack and 2 tackles for loss, as the Sooners defeated their Red River Rivals, the Texas Longhorns 34-27.  This isn't so much a breakthrough for Murray, but for the defense as a whole as the Sooners have been prolific on offense and horrific on defense for the past few years.  If this defense stands up, they will be in the playoffs.

Finally

Miami Hurricanes.  They win a meaningful game against ranked ACC-rival Virginia 17-9, the first meaningful win of Manny Diaz's career.  One week after he was the Goat coach on this blog.

Impact Injury

Ryan Hilinksi, QB - South Carolina.  Already thrust into duty due to injury, Ryan Hilinski himself was injured forcing the Gamecocks to turn to Freshman Dakereon Joiner.  Joiner flashed some athleticism, but only went 6-12 for 39 yards, although he did gain 28 on the ground.  For a team that should be riding high before hosting Florida next week (after defeating Georgia in Athens), instead South Carolina faces question marks at the primary position on the field.

Team Rising

Appalachia State Mountaineers.  With Memphis losing to Temple, Appalachian State finds itself with a real opportunity to lead the Group of 5 into a major bowl game.

Team Falling

Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  It would be easy to say Georgia here, but Wake Forest not only fell from the ranks of the unbeatens, but gave up 62 points to Louisville in doing so.

Player(s) to Watch

Najee Harris, RB - Alabama Crimson Tide.  Lost in the high-flying passing offense that is Alabama, is a strong running back who rushed for another 114 yards on 20 carries in Alabama's 47-28 victory over Texas A&M.   

My New Favorite Player

Joey Magnifico, TE - Memphis Tigers.  The senior tight end, who will likely be playing on Sundays, had 6 catches for 87 yards, as Memphis fell to Temple 30-28, but his biggest play was the catch he "didn't" make.  He is a wide body with decent athleticism, who just knows how to get open.  More on Magnifico later.

Players of the Week (Just Week 7)

Lots of great performances this weekend  really hard to separate the top 10 or 12.

5.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB - Louisiana State Tigers - Dominant rushing presence for the Tigers victory over the Gators; 13 carries for 134 yards and 2 TDs.

4.  Kelly Bryant, QB - Missouri Tigers.  The Clemson transfer was 23-35 for 329 and 1 TD in division-leading Missouri's 38-27 victory over Mississippi.

3. Jack Plummer, QB - Purdue Boilermakers. Plummer was 33-41 for 420 yards and 3 TDs in Missouri's 40-14 victory over Maryland.

2.  CeeDee Lamb, WR - Oklahoma Sooners.  See above.

1.  Israel Mukuamu, DB - South Carolina Gamecocks.  See above.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

Alabama (1) v. Ohio State (4)/ (2) Oklahoma v. (3) Clemson

The only things that have changed is the order.  Wisconsin could replace Ohio State and LSU could replace Alabama  Things will shake out in the upcoming weeks.

Remaining Unbeatens

Alabama, Appalachian State, Baylor, Boise State, Clemson, LSU, Minnesota, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, SMU, Wisconsin

Remaining Winless Teams

Akron, New Mexico State, Rice

Rant(s) of the Week

Why the hell do we have video review if it doesn't work.  Late in the Memphis-Temple game, Memphis down by two, but has fourth down.  Quarterback Brady White throws a pass that is caught by tight end John Magnifico at the 30, who bobbles the ball as he hits the ground.  The play is called complete, and a first down with 2 minutes left, and already in the range of Memphis's kicker, who has several field goals over 50 yards.  Replay shows that the ball does bounce up quite a bit when Magnifico hits the ground, but the replay also shows that the ball is in his arm when it bounces into Magnifico's torso.  He cradles it without the ball ever touching the ground.  A 10+ minute replay review overturns the call, giving Temple the ball as Memphis turned it over on downs.  But, if the replay takes over 10 minutes, it cannot be indisputable video evidence, it just can't.  And, not one angle shows the ball actually hitting the ground.  Yes, it bounces up on Magnifico's contact with the ground, but you never see the ball hit the ground.  Memphis falls from the undefeated and is no longer in contention for a major bowl as the best Group of 5 team.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

The question is:  This week's question comes to me from Ryen Russillo on the SVP podcast by way of Sinickal:  What was the most recent college football champion to win its first championship, and what year was it?

The answer is the 1996 Florida Gators.  Every champion since then has been a repeat champion.

Match up(s) to Watch

6.  Clemson v. Louisville - Clemson looked like Clemson against Florida State, and Louisville looks like the can score 50 on anybody.  At the very least, it should be a fun game to watch.

5. Temple v. SMU - The once-defeated Owls, who played a tremendous game last week against then-undefeated Memphis, plays an undefeated Mustangs team in Dallas.

4.  Arizona State v. Utah - Two once-defeated Pac-12 teams battle for conference supremacy.  Plus, Herm Edwards has made this team exciting!

3.  Harvard v. Holy Cross - Harvard plays its last non-conference game, but doesn't have to leave town for an away game.

2.  Baylor v. Oklahoma State - The undefeated Bears travel to under-the-radar Oklahoma State to try to prove who the biggest threat to Oklahoma is.

1.  Michigan v. Penn State - Even though Michigan has not looked good most of the year, their only loss is an understandable butt-whipping at the hands of Wisconsin.  Pen State is still undefeated, and once to make its case that it is a legitimate threat to Ohio State and Wisconsin. This game will see who the real contender is.

Trivia Question of the Week

Which active college running back has the freshman rushing record for most yards in a season?  Bonus question, whose record did he break?