Picks of the Week - Week 8

 

I wanted a streak and I did/didn't get it.  In the most important column - the money - I failed to maintain my streak, because of the Big Bet and the vig.  However, record-wise it was a winning week, so let's see IF I can keep THAT up, at least.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Home team; short week.  And this short week was an easy pick since I felt the line here should have been around 6.  Toyed with making this the Big Bet, except Thursday night games can be a bit wonky.

Indianapolis Colts +10 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts have clearly given up, but they haven't traded Jonathan Taylor yet, so they still have the capability to score a couple of touchdowns.  If this wasn't a divisional game, I might have thought about given the ten points but can't do it within the division.  Interesting note, the Jaguars have won 11 straight games at home against the Colts.  Don't expect this streak to end today.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee is 26th in total defense, 24th against the pass and 26th against the rush BEFORE they traded Jeffrey Simmons to the Bears.  And with Cincinnati having the #4 scoring offense in the NFL, this should be easy on paper.  But double-digit spreads are never easy in the league, so I will take the points while simultaneously taking the money line on Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Two middling offenses versus two pretty good defenses (Browns average giving up 20.9 points a game; the Steelers 19.7).  I'll take the points.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The first of two games that feature one high-powered offense versus a stingy defense.  Detroit's offense is 1st in total yards, 1st in passing yards, 2nd in scoring, and 16th in rushing.  Minnesota's defense is 1st in scoring, 2nd in total defense and passing, and 10th in rushing.  The difference here is I just don't think Minnesota can score enough.  I could see something like a 17-10 game here.  I will give the points, but in other circumstances might just stay away from this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This could actually be a pretty entertaining game given the fact that both teams are under .500.  The Buccaneers are 3rd in rushing, and Kenneth Gainwell's return last week offered them another offensive weapon to ease Baker Mayfield's comeback.  Atlanta itself is 6th in rushing, and the teams are 4th against the run (Atlanta) and 2nd against the run (Tampa Bay), so whichever team can establish itself in that area will likely win this game.  I always hate to look at one game and over-react, but that Tampa win last week was very impressive, even with a pedestrian Mayfield.  I look for that to continue.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at Dallas Cowboys

First-round draft pick Jeremiyah Love is playing once again for the Cardinals after returning from injury, but even prior to his injury he was only averaging 3.66 yards per carry.  I think Arizona needs to play Carson Beck to see if they need to draft a QB next year or not.  Brissett has played admirably (a 82.8 rating), but he isn't the future.  The Cowboys can score (5th in the NFL), whereas the Cardinals cannot (26th).  I'll give the points.

This is all that I wrote before I went back to think about my pick.  The Cowboys are on a short week after playing Philadelphia on Monday night and sustaining several dings.  I'll take the points.

New York Jets -2 1/5 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Breece Hall is set to return, but Braelon Allen is still slated to start, and it could be the Jets don't want to get Hall injured to hurt his trade value.  Everything about this game says Raiders (6th in scoring versus 27th mainly), but west coast team playing in the 1:00 time slot leads me to say Jets.  Plus, I am hoping that the competitive nature of the NFL-player Jets will want to avenge last week's loss to Miami.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Buffalo Bills

If Lamar Jackson is back at 100%, I really like getting points in this game, especially going against a porous defense (30th in scoring defense, 31st in total defense and against the pass).  Jackson can usually rely on a good defense (11th overall, 9th against the pass) to keep this game close as he gets acclimated back to the NFL.

  

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In the battle of Sofi, I am just simply betting against the Chargers.  Plus, it is hard to believe that the Rams are 3-4 with their offense (2nd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense), AND defense (3rd in total defense and 4th in passing defense).  The Rams begin their playoff charge and the Chargers continue the Harbaugh countdown-clock (and maybe Herbert?).

Miami Dolphins +7 v. New England Patriots

Everything about this game screams PATRIOTS!!!  But you all should know by now how I feel about giving points on the road in an intra-divisional game.  The Dolphins - although not good - have been showing some progress this year, with some good future talent and a solid running game, so maybe, a backdoor cover as the Patriots win 30-24?   

 

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I know I just typed that I don't want to give points on the road in an intra-divisional game, but 1 1/2 really isn't that much when the Chiefs have the 5th best total offense and the 9th best total defense, compared to the 31st ranked total offense and 23rd total defense for Denver.

Washington Commanders -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really do not like making this bet as I feel it is way too many points (perhaps 3 1/2 would be more like it), but we all know that Philadelphia is reeling - especially with the Jalen Hurts blood clots and ensuing debacle, now add the fact they now have to answer questions about whether or not Saquon Barkley is on the trading block.  Plus, they played Monday night, so I am going to roll the dice.

Chicago Bears +3 at Seattle Seahawks

This is the other marquee matchup between an amazing high-flying offense (Chicago Bears - 1st in rushing/3rd in total offense/13th in passing - with two three full games without Caleb Williams, too/T7th in scoring) going against a impenetrable defense (Seattle Seahawks - 1st in total and passing defense/4th in scoring defense/6th in scoring defense.)  Chicago's defense is pretty good too (3rd in rushing defense/8th in total defense and passing defense/9th in scoring defense).  Plus, these are the two best defenses in getting off the field on third down (Chicago #1 and Seattle #2).  So, what do I like to do when two really good, evenly-matched teams play each other?  Take the points!

Bye Weeks:  Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In the battle of Sofi, I am just simply betting against the Chargers.  Plus, it is hard to believe that the Rams are 3-4 with their offense (2nd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense), AND defense (3rd in total defense and 4th in passing defense).  The Rams begin their playoff charge and the Chargers continue the Harbaugh countdown-clock (and maybe Herbert?).

I feel this is really the biggest mis-match (spreadwise) on the board, so I am going to take it, especially with the Rams not being a true road team.  But, none of us would be shocked in the Chargers finally got their first win - and this would be just the unexpected game in which it could occur.  That being said, this is my Big Bet for sure - as the Rams get themselves to .500 on the season.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 49-53-5

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,455)