A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets
Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points. Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring. And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.
Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany
Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin. By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!! True story. Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.
Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins. Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville. I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams. So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team. The Bills just lost to the Dolphins. And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3. At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points. They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?
Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants
I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol. Even if he does, still who knows. I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.
Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS. But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods. I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game. Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!
Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
So this came down to simply just taking the points. But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses. Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage: Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook. Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th). So, I'll take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is another case in which I am taking the points. Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco. Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.
San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Damnit. I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes. I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down). But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall!
Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division. I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!
Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up. But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense. Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.
Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders! I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.
Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?! I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!
Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
I do not want to watch this game. I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.
Byes: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?! I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!
A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.
Last Week Record: 8-6
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 69-80
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920)
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