Picks of the Week - NFL Week 12

 

An actual winning week, but once again I am undone by the damn Big Bet, which I lost --- AGAIN!  I just cannot figure this season out.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am supposed to pick the home team on a short week, I know.  And Houston does have the best defense in the NFL.  But Buffalo scored 44 on a very good Tampa Bay defense last week, and I just cannot pick Davis Mills in a prime time game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Chicago Bears -2 1/2

Both teams defenses give up A LOT of yards.  The Bears are 27th and the Steelers 28th in Total Defense.  The difference is the Bears are 4th in Total Offense, AND they are at home.  Now that is what I would have written if the Chicago Bears were not literally playing without ALL 3 starting linebackers!!!  All three.  Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Noah Sewell.  And they are 27th in Total Defense WITH those guys.  Ugh.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay's defense is 5th in Total Defense and 7th in scoring defense, and J.J. McCarthy has proven himself to be very pedestrian with a 61.7 QB Rating.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Although Kansas City needs to play desperate in this game just to have a chance at making the playoffs, and desperation and talent are a dangerous combination, Indianapolis is just a better team, especially offensively.  KC may win, but I am going to take the points, as the Colts score enough to cover - at least.

 

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL (last in Total Defense, last in rushing defense, last in scoring defense and 31st in passing defense).  That is just too much to overcome while J'Marr Chase is suspended and Joe Flacco - although efficient - is still aging.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a lot of points, but this is an unconventional year.  AND the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets are B-A-D!

Detroit Lions -10 v. New York Giants

The Lions are going to be chomping at the bit after being stifled by the Eagles' defense last week after exploding against the Commanders.  I think this could be a three-score game.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Honestly, I just took two double-digit favorites, why not take a third?  (Because that is stupid, but this year has been crazy ...).

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This pick is predicated solely on the return of Trey Benson, coupled with Jacksonville overestimating their decimation of the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and thus under-preparing for Arizona.  If no Benson, this pick is reversed.

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Getting points at home against an intra-divisional rival is always going to be my go-to play, even though it is a short week for the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Los Angeles Rams

This was a very tough game for me to pick.  It might feature the return of Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving, and if it does, he would be well-rested for some reps/carries and alternate with Rachaad White and the surprisingly spry Sean Tucker to at least keep the Rams defense guessing.  Will that be enough to win?  Likely not, especially on the road.  But a 30-24 score with the Rams winning?  I can see that.

Carolina Panthers +7 at San Francisco 49ers

I am taking Carolina because of the points, and because Rico Dowdle is having a heckuva season running the ball (4th in the NFL), because San Francisco is still without Fred Warner, and nobody has figured out Carolina and how they are 6-5 this year.  So, since my first impression is that San Francisco should win easily, I am picking Carolina.

Byes:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

It seems like this year I am going to get this pick wrong anyway, might as well really go down behind Shadeur Sanders' first start!

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-86

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $75

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,845) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 10

 

This isn't even fair at this point.  I mean, c'mon, JACOBY BRISSETT?  Really?!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin)

Although the Falcons struggle against the rush (here you go Jonathan Taylor fans), they are overall pretty stout (3rd overall), so I will take the points in this one in what should be a close game.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. New York Giants

None of us actually believe this, but the Bears offense is carrying this team.  They are 2nd in rushing offense, 4th in total offense, 6th in scoring offense, and 10th in passing offense.  And this Giants defense is barely better than Cincinnati's, and their offense is way worse.

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

I really don't know what to think about this game.  All I can honestly say is that I feel that Minnesota might suffer a letdown after last week's emotion victory over their divisional rivals - the Detroit Lions and Baltimore needs to put together a win streak to make the playoffs.  

New England Patriots +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically, New England scores more points than Tampa Bay, and they give up less points than Tampa Bay does.  And, since they are the road team here, they are getting points.  I'll take 'em.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, I know CJ Stroud is out, but to be honest, he wasn't having that great of a year anyway, as the team is 19th in passing offense and 17th overall.  This pick is about taking the points at home in an intra divisional game, and Houston's defense (1st overall and in scoring, 4th against the pass nad 6th against the run).

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets were absolutely decimated by the trade deadline, losing Quinnen Williams (no surprise) and Sauce Gardner (SURPRISE!) from a defense that was already 27th in scoring defense and 16th in total defense.  Cleveland is the beneficiary of those trades.  I am shocked Breece Hall is still there.  If Braelon Allen wasn't hurt, Hall might have been traded too!

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Speaking of surprises, how is Alvin Kamara still on the Saints?  Carolina, behind Offensive Player of the Year candidate Rico Dowdle, is in the playoff hunt!

Miami Dolphins +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is a lot of points for an intra-divisional home team to give up, so I will take them, despite the fact that Buffalo's offense is the best in the league, and Miami's is 27th.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Four reasons here:  (1) The Jacoby Brissett shine won't surprise Seattle like it did Dallas; (2) Seattle is going to want to play with it's new offensive playmaker - Rashid Shaheed - so expect a couple of big plays; (3) Shaheed's speed is going to open up things A LOT for JSN; and (4) short week for Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I absolutely hate this pick, but I just don't like picking road intra-divisional favorites unless I absolutely have to do so.  Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can probably score enough to keep this close, although I expect the Rams to win, maybe 27-24?

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

The Lions are going to be angry after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week and the Commanders are going to be angry that they have to start Marcus Mariota again!

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Although they sit in first place in the AFC North, Pittsburgh's numbers are brutal.  They are 30th in Total Offense AND Total Defense, and on top of that they are last in the league in pass defense, against Justin Herbert's 6th best passing offense.  The Chargers aren't shabby on the defensive side of the ball either, being 6th in Total Defense.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay's defense is stout (5th against the run and 9th against the pass for 5th overall), and Philadelphia still looks like a paper tiger, at least until Saquon Barkley gets back on track.  And, with the way their respective divisions are playing, Green Bay just needs this more.

Byes:  Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Brock Bowers' returns makes the Raiders offense a bit more lethal, but honestly, my big bet selections have been awful this year, so let's just get it out of the way early this week.

Last Week Record: 7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 61-74

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-7

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,895) 

NFL Mid-Season Review

6 

So the NFL has reached its mid-season.  Nine of the eighteen weeks are complete, and each team has played at least 8 games, and some 9, and 8 1/2 games is halfway through the season.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season, with each team's surprise of the year.  The parenthetical at the end of season rankings was that team's position in the quarter-season review. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2) This team was 5-0 during the second quarter of the season (and has won 6 games in a row to push to the top of the division.  Although I fully expect the Bills to end up here at the end of the year, New England is a strong contender for the playoffs,  The big surprise is that this team is 8th in scoring without a significant contribution from Trayveon Henderson, who, although the team's leading rusher with 283 yards, has only 13 more rushing yards than Drake Maye.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) A two-game losing streak - to New England and Atlanta - going into their bye dismantled what looked like an AFC juggernaut.  Their biggest surprise is that this team is middle-of-the-pack in passing offense (14th).  

Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins are 2-7 and sit in third place.  The biggest surprise is that they are not in last.

New York Jets (1-7)

Awful.  The biggest surprise is that they have not started trading veterans (Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams) yet.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Mike Tomlin must be that good of a coach (that we knew), but this is his best job yet.  That is because the surprise is that the Steelers are in first place while being ranked 30th in offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Is this the scariest 3-5 team in NFL history?  injuries hurt, but the biggest surprise is how poor this defense is (27th overall).

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Joe Burrow injury is devastating.  Surprise is that Joe Flacco is making this team exciting.

Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Among the worst teams in the league, even with the second-best defense in the NFL.  That should have accounted for 1 or 2 more wins.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

They have played exceptionally well this year.  And are just a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers away from being 8-1.  Jonathan Taylor's success isn't a surprise, so his candidacy for MVP is understandable, but Daniel Jones being a top candidate?  Wow.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

A 2-2 quarter has flattened out the Jaguars curve, but Jacksonville is currently in playoff position if the season ended today.  The biggest surprise?  A virtually non-existent Brian Thomas, Jr. who has 30 receptions, only 5 more than Parker Washington.

 

Houston Texans (3-5)

Still one of the most disappointing teams in the whole league.  Biggest surprise - Woody Marks.  Not that he is surprising with his play, but the surprise is that the Texans have had to resort to Woody Marks.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Well, the are no longer winless!  The surprise is Chimere Dike, who is developing into a solid wide receiver, and is already one of the best kick returners in the NFL.  He has almost 350 more yards in kickoff returns than the next highest returner, and has the highest per return average as a punt returner.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos went 5-0 in the second quarter, and are solidifying themselves as a Super Bowl candidate.  The surprise, they are doing this with only the 14th-best total offense in the NFL.  If this offense actually gets on track, watch out.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Oh what could've been with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.  The surprise is that they are the second-rated offense without those two bookends!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

The surprise is that they are third in their division!!!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

No surprise that they are bad, the surprise is that they are only giving the ball to Ashton Jeanty 15 times a game.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

At the quarter mark, I noted the statistical fallacy of the Eagles being 4-0; and they went 2-2 the last quarter.   The biggest surprise?  That the Tush Push was ruled forward progress stopped instead of a fumble against the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

This defense is really bad, which limits the ceiling on this team, yet they still are buyers at the deadline acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati.  Surprise!!!

Washington Commanders (3-6)

A little regression from last year was to be expected, but not this much!  The surprise is the second injury to Jayden Daniels!!!  Perhaps let the running backs run?!

New York Giants (2-7)

Not a good team, but not as bad as their record.  The surprise is the excitement for Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo!!!  (Who am I kidding, we knew the over-exaggerated excitement for Skattebo was coming!).

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NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Went 3-1 the last quarter, but they haven't looked particularly sharp.  A surprise loss to the Panthers could be the difference between a division title and traveling on wildcard weekend.

Detroit Lions (5-3)

This team can look dominating, or disappointing.  I still think they are the class of the division.  Too much firepower.

Chicago Bears (5-3)

Could the Bears be making a run for the playoffs?  The surprise is that despite a lot of negative press coming from Bears fans, his numbers are virtually identical to those of Baker Mayfield, who some people have as an outside-MVP candidate.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Their defeat of the Detroit Lions brings this division much closer from top-to-bottom.  The biggest surprise is even the Vikings don't know which JJ McCarthy will show up from quarter-to-quarter:  the one that plays essentially like a first-year starter, or the one that comes-from-behind in the fourth quarter.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Tampa Bay is playing very consistently, and is 3-1 in each of the first two quarters.  The big surprise is that Richaad White is the leading rusher, despite not having a rusher with over 300 yards on the season.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The surprise is that Carolina is 5-4!!!

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

The inverse of the Carolina Panthers, the surprise is that Atlanta is only 3-5even with the number 3 ranked defense!

New Orleans Saints (1-8)

The surprise is that Alvin Kamara is still on the Saints.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Playing very well.  This organization knows how to find QBs tossed away by other franchises (first Geno Smith, now Sam Darnold).  Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the entire NFL in receiving yards.  Surprising that it looks smart to have traded DK Metcalf!

Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Might actually be the best team in the division.  Surprising that Matt Stafford is an MVP front-runner!

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

In playoff contention despite running through wide receivers like the Kardashians ... run through wide receivers!

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

Surprised they haven't pulled the plug on the Kyler Murray Experiment yet.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (8)

2.  Denver Broncos (7-2) (14)

3.  New England Patriots (7-2) (16)

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1)

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (5)

6.  Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (9)

7.  Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (7)

8.  Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (2)

9.  Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (12)

10.  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (3)

11.  San Francisco 49ers (6-3) (6)

12.  Detroit Lions (5-3) (4)

13.  Chicago Bears (5-3) (18)

14.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (10)

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (11)

16.  Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (13)

17.  Carolina Panthers (5-4) (29)

18.  Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (17)

19.  Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (22)

20.  Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (23)

21.  Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (19)

22.  Houston Texans (3-5) (24)

23.  Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (20)

24.  Washington Commanders (3-6) (15)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (21)

26.  Cleveland Browns (2-6) (28)

27.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (25)

28.  New York Giants (2-7) (26)

29.  Miami Dolphins (2-7) (27)

30.  New Orleans Saints (1-8) (31)

31.  New York Jets (1-8) (30)

32.  Tennessee Titans (1-8) (32)

Biggest Movers:  New England Patriots +13, Denver Broncos +12, Carolina Panthers, +12, Washington Commanders -9, Detroit Lions -8, Los Angeles Chargers -7

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive MVP - Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts