I need to stop travelling, as it is obviously impacting my pics. Also out-of-town this weekend, but hopefully we can turn this season around, as last week was horrible.
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
I hated this pick (for good reason), but home team on a short week and I hate taking road intra-divisional favorites.
Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)
A bad offense (28th) and great defense (6th) in Minnesota versus a horrible offense (30th) AND defense (29th) in Pittsburgh.
New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
More than 2 touchdowns? Just a bit too much for my blood to give up.
Tennessee Titans -+7 1/2 at Houston Texans
I am doing this strictly for the points, but I am concerned that maybe this is what Houston needs to right itself after a bad year plus. Still taking Tennessee - again just for take the points.
Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions
When is Cleveland going to give Dillon Gabriel a try? Should be soon. But, taking them here because Quinshon Judkins could be great, and because Detroit played Monday night.
Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
I feel that defensive coordinators have figured out Michael Penix, Jr. Atlanta's defense is legit so far this year (2nd overall and 1st in pass defense), but Marcos Mariota is a proven veteran.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense. Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.
Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots
Neither of these teams are good, and New England is better at passing the eye test (especially at QB), but 5 1/2 points? I'll take them.
New York Giants +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This may seem unorthodox, but hear me out here: First, maybe the Giants get a bit of a jolt from Jaxson Dart; and second, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east to play in the 1:00 window. I will take the Giants, reluctantly.
Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
Ben Johnson got a taste of winning last week, and although this will not be easy with 3 more starters out for the Bears, most of their playmakers on offense will be there, plus the get a look at rookie Ozzy Trapilo on the offensive line replacing Darnell Wright. Despite a 1-2 start, Chicago is 9th in scoring offense, and 4th in third-down conversions. That should be enough.
San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brock Purdy returns. That has to be enough to put the Niners over the top. Especially after starting 3-0. Can they go 4-0? I think they win outright.
Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Colts are a surprise 3-0, for sure, but unlike Philly their stats back it up. Number 1 total offense (4th passing/3rd rushing) and number 5 total defens (8th passing/7th rushing). They may not get to 4-0, but they very well should cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Nothing about the way they have played this year tells me that KC can keep this close, except that Baltimore has the 31st total defense (31st passing and 30th rushing), and they are on a short week.
Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The talent differential in this game is enormous. And we saw last week is that Dallas is BAD!
New York Jets +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
This game is just awful. Horrible. Give me points.
Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I am super-leery of giving up more than a touchdown, but Cincy has the worst total offense in the NFL (27th in passing and 32nd in rushing), AND their defense stinks. Denver, despite being 1-2, may have started to click this season despite losses the last two weeks.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense. Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.
I looked at Chicago (on the road and too many injuries), Green Bay (giving up too many points), and Washington Commanders. I am going to take the Buccaneers to win outright on the road, although the 3 1/2 points looks pretty good.
Last Week Record: 5-11
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 21-27
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-2
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($875)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,050)
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