Ended the season with a great 10-6 record, meaning my overall record for the regualar season is GREAT at 30 games over .500! I am ridiculously satisfied with this season to date. My only hope is to keep rolling through the playoffs! Let's see how that goes!! And, just as a reminder, the Chicago Bears have the #1 overall pick!!! Open for business!!!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Cleveland Browns -2 at Houston Texans
This Browns defense finished the season 1st overall, 1st in 3rd down percentage, and 1st against the pass - which is Houston's offensive strength. And, with the resurgence of Joe Flacco, especially to Amari Cooper, I am not sure the 23rd ranked pass defense can stop Cleveland. Plus, the Browns just annihilated the Texans 36-22 in Houston on week 16 (and I say annihilate because that game was not even that close. And sure, Davis Mills and Case Keenum quarterbacked Houston instead of C.J. Stroud, but that defense will be the same.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2
Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
The winner of this game is simply ... the WEATHER. It will be sub-zero cold, literally. Probably not good enough weather to re-energize either of these stagnant offenses, but Miami just has too many injuries, especially along its O-line (Conner Williams) and D-Line (Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips), and other players playing - but hobbled.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43 1/2
Likely lots of running which eats up the clock, especially on long scoring drives. I expect Isaiah Pacheco to have a monster game.
Buffalo Bills -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This might be Mike Tomlin's best coaching job to guide this team into the playoffs. Buffalo is on a roll haveing won 5 in a row, and Pittsburgh's defense, which was 22nd overall, 19th against the rush, and 17th against the pass - with T.J. Watt - is not going to stop Buffalo without him. Another game where the weather will be a challenge, but I expect Buffalo to win handily.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills OVER 33 1/2
Yes, you read that correctly, 33 1/2. That is a super-low over/under because of the weather, but I submit, bad weather helps scoring sometimes, with a fumble here, a slipping defender there. Gotta take the over on this one.
Green Bay Packers +7 at Dallaw Cowboys
This Dallas team has been up-and-down and face a surprising Green Bay Packers team that is much, much better with Aaron Jones in the lineup. I expect the Cowboys to advance, but it should be a tight one.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys OVER 50 1/2
This game could be a shootout - and that is what I am betting.'
Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Would you want to disappoint Dan Campbell with a first-round playoff loss? Yeah, me either.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions OVER 51 1/2
This is the 5th-highest scoring offense (Detroit) versus the 8th-highest scoring offense (Los Angeles), with both teams in the bottom third in scoring defense. This means ... POINTS!!!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants. Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense. Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 1/2
Tampa is not going to give up a lot of points to Philadelphia (maybe 10 or 14), and likely won't score enough to push this to the over.
Big Bet I:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants. Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense. Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield has played big in the playoffs before, and I feel that he will come through again!
Big Bet II:
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2
Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.
I shied away from picking Cleveland as my big bet since they are on the road and giving up points, as opposed to Tampa at home getting points, but I can double that up here by relying on 3 Tds between Njoku and Cooper, plus more from Cleveland.
Record
Last Week's Record: 10-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 144-114-14
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,095
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