Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line. So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend. But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!! Now, we have the conference championships. Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout? Who knows.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs). I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals
I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year. Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford. Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)
The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round. And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49
Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22. Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.
Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)
All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs. He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.
Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points
If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.
Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards
He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.
National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes
My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.
Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns
Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.
Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)
The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.
Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)
See above.
Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)
See above.
Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)
Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.
Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)
Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes. He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.
Big Bets
Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)
The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round. And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.
Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.
Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)
All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs. He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.
Two field goals seems easily doable.
Last Week's Record: 10-8
Playoff Record: 20-15-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Playoff Big Bet: 1-2
Year-to-Date Record: 163-144-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)
Playoff's Winnings (Losses): ($304)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)
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