So a bad penultimate week wipes out the rest of the winnings I had accumulated from the rest of the year. But, at least we have a last week where I have no idea what to do due to all of the players resting, the Covid list, and teams being out of the playoff race. Ouch. Never good to rely on week 17, which is why fantasy leagues stopped playing all 17 weeks about a decade and a half ago. Oh well, I will give it a shot.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Miami Dolphins -2 at Buffalo Bills
How on earth are we starting with a road favorite in an intradivisional game when the home team is clearly the better squad and the visiting team is quarterbacked by a rookie? Because we do not know which of the Bills players will play, and for how long. Last year in this situation (locked into a playoff spot) the starters played about a quarter. Although not locked into an actual spot, they are locked into either the 2 or 3 seed, and with Pittsburgh being so close relatively to Buffalo, no fans in the stands, and an additional playoff team meaning the 2 seed does not receive a bye, there is virtually no difference between the two seeds. So, I predict Buffalo does not play a lot of its key players any significant amount of time, and Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa plays just well enough for the Dolphins to win and make the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Hooray, another intradivisional road favorite, and this time a double digit favorite. But, Baltimore needs this win to qualify for the playoffs (Baltimore could lose and still make it with help), and Cincinnati has a chance to select 3rd in the 2021 NFL draft (right now they are 4th). Cincinnati will need that third pick to select Penei Sowell, the behemoth tackle from Oregon in order to protect Joe Burrow in the future.
Cleveland Browns -10 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Oh great, another double digit intradivisional favorite. At least it is a home game, right? Well, two words - Mason Rudolph. A better bet is how long until Myles Garrett sacks him?
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Detroit Lions
Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite! (And yes, I am going to find something to complain about with each selection.) But, the Lions have phoned in the end of this season, losing by 68 points combined in their last 3 games.
New York Jets +3 at New England Patriots
I cannot believe that I am picking the Jets (for the second week in a row). But, they are actually playing much better than the Patriots. I wonder which quarterback Belichick would like to draft (Zach Wilson, Kyle Trask or Mac Jones?)
Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at New York Giants
Can you believe anybody picking the Cowboys this year? Well, I have to in this game. They are on a 3-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins. And, the winner of this game will win the NFC East and make the playoffs provided that Philadelphia defeats the Washington Football Team.
Atlanta Falcons + 6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 22nd in pass defense and Atlanta is 5th in passing offense. Problem is Atlanta has lost 4 in a row and I don't trust them. For a silver lining their losses have been by 3 (to KC), 4 (to Tampa Bay), 3 (to Los Angeles Chargers), and 5 (to New Orleans), so they have been keeping games close.
Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 at Chicago Bears
The Bears offense has been playing much better, and even moved the ball well against Green Bay 5 weeks ago. But, in that game the defense had no answers whatsoever for Aaron Rodgers, and nothing about this team shows me they have the capability to do that. Add that to the fact that Green Bay is fighting for the number 1 overall seed in the NFC (and a bye week), and Green Bay wins this game, despite the Bears having the ability to clinch a playoff berth with a win (or a Cardinals loss - more on that later). Man, I hate that the Bears are in this position.
Carolina Panthers +6 v. New Orleans Saints
The Saints will be playing this game without any of its normal running backs due to Alvin Kamara testing postive for Covid-19. Why does that affect the remaining running backs? Because, just like the Denver Broncos several weeks ago, the rest of the position is out due to being in close contact with Kamara. New Orleans' problem is that since Kamara tested positive, he would not be eligible to play until next Sunday (if he experiences no symptoms since the testing), meaning he would miss a Saturday playoff game. New Orlenans is just going to try to get through this game. Teddy Two Gloves is looking to solidify his spot as starting quarterback for Carolina for next year. I hate picking against the obviously better squad.
Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ugh, another double digit favorite. At least it is a home game. But, Jacksonville showed me absolutely nothing last week that says that they could stop anyone.
Tennessee Titans -7 at Houston Texans
Another road intradivisional favorite. I must be a masochist. But, Tennessee is fighting for its playoff life (Tennessee, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Clevleand and Miami are fighting for 4 spots), and that motivation should be more than enough against a Texans squad that elevated 2 offensive linemen from the practice squad. DeShaun Watson has had a helluva season, though. I am serious, check it out. He has the second highest QB score from ProFootballFocus (behind Aaron Rodgers).
Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Kansas City Chiefs
I do not expect the Kansas City starters to play very much at all. If they do, then this is a bad pick. Damn these week 17 games.
Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
I have no idea what is going to happen in this game, so give me the points.
Arizona Cardinals -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
So the winner of this game makes the playoffs. In addition, the Rams make the playoffs with a loss if Green Bay defeats Chicago. But, if the Rams lose, but Chicago wins, we would have a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot between Chicago, Arizona and the Rams, a tiebreaker that the Rams lose. So, since both this game and the Bears-Green Bay start at 4:25, neither team will know the outcome of the other game - so at least that means they have to play hard. But, the Rams will be without quarterback Jared Goff (injury) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (Covid-list). Ordinarily, I would have faith in the best player in the NFL, Aaron Donald, but I have no idea what a John Wolford is. My Bears are doomed.
Seattle Seahawks -7 at San Francisco 49ers
Another intradivisional road favorite. This does not make me happy. But, Seattles good offense (8th in total offense, 7th in scoring offense), is suddenly being accompanied by a newly transformed defense, having not given up 21 points since a week 11 win against the Cardinals.
Washington Football Team -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington wins and they are in the playoffs. Lose and they are out - that simple. The Eagles are so fractured that Carson Wentz is not even going to dress tonight. Alex Smith is. And, instead of complaining, I will just be happy that I get to type "Washington Football Team".
Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at New York Giants
Can you believe anybody picking the Cowboys this year? Well, I have to in this game. They are on a 3-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins. And, the winner of this game will win the NFC East and make the playoffs provided that Philadelphia defeats the Washington Football Team.
Dallas is actually playing very well lately. I look for them to keep it up and then watch the Sunday night game between Washington and Philadelphia.
Last Week's Record: 5-11
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 120-115-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($875)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($670)
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