For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense. I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league. So, they are overrated. I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.
Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above. In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.
Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well. Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.
Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright. Why? Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win. That makes me leery. But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.
Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.
New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense. The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.
New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line. Just hate it. But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright. The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas. Who does Minnesota have to cover him? Don't worry, I'll wait.
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.
Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one. Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco. Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.
Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs
Big Bet I
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.
Big Bet II
Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?
Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)
Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.
Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 2-0
Year-to-Date Record: 124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($900)
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