For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
I never liked this line, but short week, Minnesota being home, and Washington being horrible meant I couldn't not take them. All I needed was for them to not play soft and score a touchdown every now and then.
Chicago Bears -4 v. Los Angeles Chargers
No real reason for this, just hoping the "players only meeting" does something to spark the Bears.
Los Angeles Rams -12 v. Cincinnati Bengals
From Wembley Stadium, so no real home team, and both teams have been in London for quite some time. Just going with the better team and hope that this plays out.
New Orleans Saints -11 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Another double digit spread, and it seems like there have been a thousand of them already this year. Drew Brees is back, and that isn't nothing despite the great stewardship of Teddy Bridgewater in Bress' absence. David Johnson isn't back, but Chase Edmonds looked good in his replacement role. I'll take the Saints, I guess.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Such hit-or-miss teams on both sides of the field today, as we have seen some glimpses of great football from both of these teams, and some glimpses of horrible football from both these teams. Tampa is 4th in scoring offense, 9th in passing offense and first in rushing defense. Tennessee is 4th in scoring defense and 8th in total defense, so their is some talent. I'll go Tampa Bay for having some talent on both sides of the ball.
Indianapolis Colts -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Denver is great on defense (3rd in passing defense and 4th in total defense), but is horrible on offense. I will go with a more rounded Colts team behind Jacoby Brissett who is starting to realize that he really belongs as an NFL starting quarterback (QB Rating 101). Plus, Denver's offensive line is horrible.
Seattle Seahawks -8 at Atlanta Falcons
I really hate taking a west coast team travelling west for the early games, but Matt Schaub is starting for an Atlanta team that just isn't very good anyway. Passing offense is the only thing keeping Atlanta in any game (2nd in the NFL), and now their quarterback is likely out - I'll give the points.
Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Buffalo Bills
There is no real reason to select Philly in this game, other than the fact that they have so underachieved, that they need to win this game to possibly salvage their season.
Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. New York Giants
Detroit better beat the lowly New York Giants or else they fall further down the potential playoff ladder. Doing it by more than a touchdown could show that they belong in the playoff conversation.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. New York Jets
It is pre-Halloween weekend, so no telling how many ghosts the Jaguars faithful will have floating around the stadium to try to punish Sam Darnold, but the ghosts of New York Jets past are likely restless after last week's ass-whipping at the hands of the Patriots. It is possible that the Patriots destroyed the Jets' drive for the entire season.
San Francisco 49ers -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
This San Farncisco defense is outstanding (8th in rushing yards, 3rd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 2nd in scoring defense and total defense, and 1st in passing defense). Not sure how Carolina scores enough points to stay in this game.
Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at New England Patriots
Not sure New England has the same motivation as last week, and I am definitely not as sure that Cleveland turns the ball over as much as the Jets did - especially early. I am not saying that Cleveland wins, just keeps it under the spread.
Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at Houston Texans
Despite the lopsided score last week, Oakland drove the ball against Green Bay very well, even outgaining the Packers. This offense is 2nd in 3rd down conversion and 8th in rushing, so there is the opportunity to keep the ball away from the potent DeShaun Watson-led Texans' offense. I'll take the points.
Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me. I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.
Miami Dolphins +14 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Two touchdowns just seems to be a bit much, especially for a Mason Rudolph-led team. Plus, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the master of the backdoor cover.
Byes: Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me. I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.
Need I say more? Also considered, Detroit -6 1/2 v. New York Giants and Jacksonville -6 1/2 v. New York Jets.
Last Two Weeks' Record: 13-15
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet: 2-0
Year-to-Date Record: 49-57
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-3
Last Two Weeks' Winnings (Losses): ($50)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,265)
No comments:
Post a Comment