Thursday, November 17, 2011

Picks of the Week



It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Denver Broncos +6 v. New York Jets
The Jets should win this game, but with the Broncos new rushing attack, possessions will be fewer. Plus, this line has grown 1 1/2 points since open, meaning, I will go against the majority of Americans almost every time. Plus, the Jets have only had 1 practice to get ready for the college offense of the Broncos, having played late Sunday night.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Washington Redskins
Boy are the Redskins bad. The Cowboys may have really found a player in this DeMarco Murray.

Miami Dolphons -2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins have never quit in any game this year, and played some good teams close. Buffalo is no longer a good team.

Green Bay Packers -14 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Unlike the Dolphins, Tampa Bay has a tendency to quit in games. That will be easy to do once Rodgers gets up on them.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Carolina Panthers
There is no way that Detroit lays two eggs in a row, so after that beatdown at the hands of the Bears, I look for Detroit to give a similar beatdown to Carolina. For the Panthers, Newton has looked spectacular at time, but lately, he is getting absolutely no help from the running game. They need Williams and/or Stewart to step up to help Newton.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Cleveland Browns
There is no reason whatsoever that I want to watch this game, nor do I really care who wins. I'll take the points, nay, point.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 at Baltimore Ravens
I still think that the Ravens are going to win, but Cincinnati showed last week against Pittsburgh that they can hang with the big boys. The Ravens showed that they can lose to anyone.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Gates is playing like he is old, Philip Rivers is playing like he has no offensive help, and the Bears are cruising right now, and they are at home.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona beat Philadelphia last week, and they way they played, they could keep it close. I like the 49ers to win, perhaps by a touchdown, but with a run-first offense and a strong defense, the clock will keep running down and limit possession, hopefully keeping the score close, even if San Fran dominates.

St. Louis Rams -2 v. Seattle Seahawks
I don't care who they beat last week, I cannot bet on Seattle.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Green Bay is simply the best team in football, and we need to set up the Packers being undefeated going into the Thanksgiving game at Detroit.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons looked pretty good against the Saints, but this team could meltdown knowing that 1 loss could keep them out of the playoffs, especially when that one loss can be laid strictly at the feet of one really stupid decision.

New York Giants -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are nowhere near as good as everyone thought they were going to be. In fact, we can offically call them BAD.

New England Patriots -14 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
We have had some really bad Monday night games this year, including a couple of blowouts. Let's add another to the list.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Oakland Raiders -1 at Minnesota Vikings
Carson Palmer is starting to hit a bit of a groove and Michael Bush is a more than capable backup to Darren McFadden. Christian Ponder has had his moments, but this is not a good Vikings team. Without Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson, this team would be nothing this year. And with Janikowsi and Lechler, this team can play field position football with absolutely anybody.

Previous Week's Record: 8-6
Year to Date: 60-54-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 8-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $290
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1260

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