Saturday, January 12, 2008

NFL Divisional Playoffs Predictions

We here at We Make It Rain love football and gambling, so here are our predictions for this weekend's NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Betting lines from canbet.com.

Seattle (+8) v. Green Bay

Out of all the remaining teams, Seattle probably has the most suspect running game. It is interesting that they play the Packers, who at the beginning of the season looked as if they would have one of the most suspect running games in the entire league. Enter Ryan Grant, who has had the second most rushing yards in the NFL since week 8. In addition, the Packers receivers have really emerged as a force this year, with Jennings, Driver and Donald Lee becoming not only good targets for Favre, but also viable playmakers in their own right.

Seattle has the most underrated quarterback of the past 5 years, Matt Hasselback, who has finally found some receivers that don't automatically drop the ball out of habit. Bobby Engram had 94 catches for 1,147 yards. Shaun Alexander, however - DONE!

On the defensive side of the football, Patrick Kerney has emerged as a pass rushing force with 14.5 sacks this year, second in the NFL. However, the Packers are likely to call a lot of timing routes, and look for Farve to throw the ball well before the Seahawks pass rush has time to make their presence felt. Plus, Seattle's secondary is suspect. Meanwhile, the Packers play solid team defense, with linebacker Nick Barnett leading the way with 131 tackles, good for 5th in the NFL.

If I thought that Shaun Alexander had anything left, I would love to pick the Seahawks in this one, but I can't. The do play it close enough to cover.

The Seahawks, plus the 8.

Jacksonville (+13.5) v. New England

Everyone would love to see an upset here, and make New England finish with the worst possible record mathematicallly for a team of their talent, 16-1. If you don't understand that sentence, don't worry, ask me to explain it to you.

It is not going to happen. Jacksonville can run the ball on anybody, and with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, they have the best backfield tandem in the NFL. Both are capable taking any run to the house for 6. As good as Garrard has been this year, he just doesn't have the total passing package to keep New England's defense honest. The receivers are not big threats, and with Asante Samuel covering one side of the field, the Pats linebackers can load up against the run. I believe Jacksonville may get yards rushing, but I look for New England to limit the big play.

New England is the most powerful offense ever. Brady, Moss and the team all set records for touchdowns. Wes Welker lead the NFL in receptions with 112 (tied with T. J. Houshmandzadeh). And although Belicheck abandoned the run for most of the year, Maroney still averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Jacksonville's defense is one of the most physically toughest in the league. However, New England has proven that it can score against anyone, including the Jaguars.

Don't look for an upset here. Take the Patriots, and give the 13.5.

San Diego (+9.5) v. Indianapolis

This game is a rematch from the game earlier this year when Peyton Manning absolutely IMPLODED! 6 interceptions. Probably would have thrown more had he not run out of time. The Colts offense has not seemed as explosive as in the past, likely due to all of the injuries to the wide receivers. The immortal Craphonzo Thorpe even saw significant playing time. I do not expect Manning to have the same type of game. I look for the Cotls to score almost at will against the Chargers D. Although Merriman, Phillips, Castillo and Cromartie are among the best in the game, the Chargers do not have enough defensive firepower to compete with the Colts.

The Colt defense is once again solid, led by NFL Defensive Player of the year Bob Sanders. Sanders is the type of safety that simply looks forward to making hits in the running game, in addition to the standard role of pass defense. Sanders leads a defense that will be matched up against an offense coached by Norv Turner. NORV TURNER! I don't care how many LaDanian Tomlinsons you have, it is hard to overcome that albatross. Plus, Antonio Gates is hurt.

Take the Colts and give the points.

New York Giants (+7.5) v. Dallas Cowboys

This game is looking like the prime game for the favored team to lose. The home team has never won all 4 divisional round games since the NFL switched to the wildcard format. This might be the game for the underdog.

First, the Cowboys have yet to figure out that they need to use Marion Barber as the every down back. He simply brings more to the table than Julius Jones. I do believe the Cowboys could use Jones so that Barber does not wear down, however, this is the playoffs. You have to play your best players. Second, Tony Romo has not been the same since his thumb injury. I think the injury has had more of an effect on him than anyone in the Cowboys would admit. Owens is back from his injured ankle, and even though he may be able to play, I believe his speed, quickness and agility might be limited enough to make his matchup with the Giants seconday more even. With the extra second or two that it might take the receivers to get open, the Giants pass rush should be able to get to Romo. Once that happens, look for Flozell Adams to commit multiple false starts. Jason Witten, though, has simply been the best tight end in football this year.

For the Giants, Eli Manning has played much better as of late, and Ahmad Bradshaw has provided the tough running that this Giants team needs to win. Assuming Plaxico Burress is able to continue his level of play with his ankle improving, the Giants offense might be able to score a lot on the Cowboys. Roy Williams is great in run coverage, but the safeties can be suspect in pass coverage. I look for Eli to throw the ball often to challenge the Cowboys secondary.

The Cowboys beat the Giants handily in the first two games, but this is not the same Cowboys football team. Likewise, this is not the same Giants team, which has been so consistently inconsistent this year. I don't think the Giants will win, but take the Giants and the 7.5 points.

Happy Football, and don't drink too much. Well, at least not much more than normal.

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