Super Bowl Roundtable

Pepster: OK - It's that time of the year - time for the Super Bowl roundtable. Pats-Giants - Who ya got?

First, since we know that the the Giants are going to have the ball first, either by winning the toss:

Sinickal: Hey - that's my prop bet!

Pepster: ... or because Belicheck loves to defer, let's start with the Giants having the ball. What do we think? Let's start with you Hopps, since you did so well in picking the baseball playoffs.

Hopps: I think that Eli is the better Manning at this point, and he is going to have a huge game, by throwing to, wait for it ... Jake Ballard.

Pepster and Sinickal: What?!

Hopps: I am serious. With all of the attention paid to Nicks, Cruz and Manningham, Ballard is going to end up with over 100 yards, possibly with a back breaking touchdown.

Sinickal: I don't think Ballard is going to that big of a story, maybe one or two catches, but it will be easy for the Giants to exploit that Patriots secondary. I mean Julian Edelman, come on. I wish he was guarding me back when I was in college.

Pepster: I think we are in general agreement that the Patriots defense will have trouble with the Giants offense. However, I think it is going to be a lot of Ahmad Bradshaw. Coughlin will definitely want to prove they can run the ball, after doing so poorly in that department all year.

Sinickal: And speaking of Coughlin, he did go to America's University - have to root for him.

Hopps: I didn't know he went to American University.

Sinickal: Not American - America's.

Pepster: He means Syracuse. Such a homer. What about when the Pats have the ball?

Hopps: The Giants D-line will be the determining factor. Jason Pierre-Paul will get to Brady, and the team will have 4 sacks.

Pepster: They only sacked Brady once in the first game.

Hopps: They are much healthier now. And the Nascar package - Tuck, Umenyiora, JPP, Boley, Kiwanuka - that's a sick pass rush. To counter the pass rush, the Pats will rush for over 100 yards as a team, with a healthy dose of the law firm.

Pepster: What about passing? Brady did throw for over 5K this year.

Hopps: Gronk will be a non-factor, meaning that OchoCinco will have to have a big game.

Sinickal: HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Pepster: General thoughts?

Sinickal: The Giants are better at every position except Tight End and QB, and I am not sold that the QB matchup gap is very big at all. Plus, more bad stuff results from Eli winning that Brady winning. Eli would have beaten Brady in two Super Bowls, making it impossible for Brady to be considered better than Montana or Bradshaw. Eli would have more rings that Peyton. Coughlin would have to be considered one of the greatest coaches of all time.

Pepster: What?

Sinickal: Hear me out. Two Super Bowls, and he was on the sideline for BC the last time that Notre Dame was a number 1 team, and he took the Jacksonville Jaguars to the AFC championship game in their second year of existence. And .... I REALLY HATE BOSTON SPORTS FANS!!!

Hopps: Screw you!

Sinickal: I also want people to realize the curse of Bridget Moynihan. Bridget is 3-0 in Super Bowls, Gisele is 0-1.

Pepster: Selections? I say Giants will win outright, so definitely take the points.

Hopps: Same here.

Sinickal: Its unanimous. I think the line stinks, though. Patriots -3? Most people cannot figure out why the Patriots are even favored in this game. Everything points to the Giants, which means you should "run to the smell"! That is a Steve Czaban rule, but it also fits Gambling Rule No. 4 - they only mistake sports books make is not opening even earlier to take your money.

Pepster: Any prop bets? Mine are times that Madonna is insulted by being on the same stage as Nicki Minaj and MIA - infinity.

Sinickal: I say that a piece of Madonna will fall off on the field during the halftime show. My odds: Wig 6:1, Breast Implant 26:1, Sex Toy 263:1, Tooth 12:1, Jewelry 6:1, Ghost of Sean Penn 65:1.

Pepster: My favorite prop bet is "how many times will Pepster become upset when someone mentions Tim Tebow?". Only acceptable bet is "ALL OF THEM"!

Hopps: Come on guys - get serious. I say the over of 2 i going for it on 4th down, and that the Pats will have more penalty yards than the Giants.

Sinickal: Peyton Manning's name will be mentioned twice in the first quarter - Over.

Pepster: As for a real bet - I am taking the over.

Hopps: I am taking the under.

Sinickal: The O/U is 55 or 54 (depending upon where you shop). I would want to take the under so I will not be betting this. Gambling Rule No. 12 - only bet money on the over. Too much emotional trauma trying to nurse an under home. Remember the old adage - when you are over, it is over.

Pepster: Everyone, enjoy the Super Bowl. And repeat after me ... "JPP for MVP! JPP for MVP"!

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Picks

So, my quest for a perfect playoffs ended way early, but my disdain for my personal picks ended after watching thelast quarter of the New Orleans - San Francisco game. Fantastic, and just absolutely the reason why we watch playoff football. Well, that and watching the sports bar I was in turn off the Denver-New England game for UFC.

As always, I will make the picks straight up and against the spread.

Baltimore Ravens +7 at New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens

New England's offense is out-of-this world, however, the Pats have to play against an equally talented (and perhaps more so) defense in the Ravens. However, the Ravens can play the run, and the pass, whereas the Patriots can only really pass. In fact, Aaron Hernandez (about whom I commented when he was at UF would be the best pro out of those Gator teams), was the leading running back last week for New England. For those new to the game of football, Hernandez is a TIGHT END!

Since New England cannot really run very well, and if they try, Haloti Ngata will stuff that, leaving Terrell Suggs to rush, Ray Lewis to cover sideline-to-sideline, and the opportunistic secondary to make things difficult for the New England pass catchers.

One caveat, New England can win if Rob Gronkowski gets matched up with Ray Lewis or a safety one-on-one.

That being said, Ray Rice outperforms everyone, and scores enought for the Ravens to wing.

New York Giants +2 at San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants

San Francisco was ridiculously impressive last week, and Alex Smith looked like he not only belongs in the league, but he could be a star. However, that was against New Orleans' defense. The Giants defense, led by the best player in the league this year, Jason Pierre-Paul, is much bigger, faster, stronger and more athletic than the Saints.

Although the 49ers are tough against the run, I expect AHmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be somewhat productive, with Patrick Willis getting a few licks in.

The caveat, if Frank Gore has a 135 yards rushing, 80 yards receiving and 3 Touchdown kind of game, the 49ers can win.

I don't think they will.

Last Week Straight Up: 2-2
Last Week Against-the-Spread: 2-2
Playoffs Straight Up: 3-5
Last Week Against-the-Spread: 3-5

Playoff Picks

Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints

The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots

I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.

Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.

New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.


Playoff Record To Date

Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3

Playoffs Picks

My attempt to go 11-0. I will pick against the spread and straight up.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals

Injuries finally catch up to Houston, as the Bengals' rookie QB is better than the Texans'.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints

Detroit has the firepower to hang with New Orleans, so they should cover, but New Orleans is way too potent at home to lose this shootout.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons

This should be a very close game. The Falcons massive draft day trade to get Julio Jones pays off as they play the horrific Giants secondary. I do want to mention that I think Jason Pierre-Paul has played the best football of anyone I have watched this year - and I watched a lot of football.

Denver Broncos +8 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think Denver can win this game, but their defense, coupled with the injuries to Mendenhall, Pouncey and Roethlisberger, should keep this game close. I am intetested to see how Brady Quinn might do, if he plays as is being reported.

Picks of the Week

Last week was my first big losing week of the season, even at 8-8 (damn Big Bet). A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks
So it turns out that Philly is much worse than everyone thought and the Seahawks are much better. And the Eagles have the DeSean Jackson drama, Maclin and Vick out, McCoy - who knows? But, that is better than Sidney Rice on IR and the starting quarterback with a torn pectoral muscle.

Chicago Bears -7 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Caleb Hanie at least showed that he can move the ball - Tyler Palko didn't. However, Orton should play, and then it is a whole different ball of wax. Nevertheless, the Bears D is gelling, with Peppers garnering NFC Defensive Player of the Month honors.

New England Patriots -20 v. Indianapolis Colts
This spread is so absurd, that I have to take New England, just to say I bet on a 20 point NFL favorite. The Pats offense is cruising; just when people learn they have to guard the two tight end offense, the Pats have two receivers hang 100 plus. And, we might have found an offense that the Pats D can stop.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Chris Johnson has awaken. The Bills are still playing better than anyone believed, but it is going to be hard for any of their receivers to get open because of Jason McCourty, the guy I believe is playing the best of any corner in the NFL.

Houston Texans +3 v. Atlanta Falcons
This is a weird game to pick, because we just have no idea what we are going to get out of T.J. Yates. But, we do know what we will get from the Texans defense and their running game, so I'll take the points and hope for a close game.

Denver Broncos + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Is it possible to have a 0-0 game with 0 total yards from scrimmage?

Washington Redskins +3 v. New York Jets
I don't know why, I just feel that the Redskins have been playing well, the Jets haven't, and I want the points. Plus, the Redskins get a chance to see what they really have in Helu.

Carolina Panthers +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers running game seems to be getting back on track, and that will really open things up for Cam Newton.

Oakland Raiders +3 at Miami Dolphins
Both teams are playing much better than expected, but the Raiders running game is much stronger, and on that basis, I want the Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati by 7 at Cincinnati, should be by more in Pittsburgh.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I am not sure anyone should really be a 6 1/2 point favorite in this division, but I like the Ravens much more than the Browns. I hope the divisional rivalry thing doesn't make Cleveland play better than they really are.

Green Bay Packers -7 at New York Giants
Only Jason Pierre-Paul is really playing an effective defensive line for the Giants, and without a major pass rush, Rodgers can pick the defense apart. Plus, Brandon Jacobs is a shell of his former self, and cannot be an effective starting running back. The Giants need Bradshaw back.

St. Louis Rams +13 at San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis has not been winning a lot of games, but they have the offensive firepower to stay close. I'll take almost two touchdowns.

New Orleans Saints -9 v. Detroit Lions
With Suh out, the Lions interior rush falls to rookie Nick Fairley. New Orleans showed that they could run-and-gun with Green Bay, now they are fresh and looking to put their stamp on the second best team in the NFC sweepstakes.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. San Diego Chargers
The Jaguar defense played amazingly in their previous Monday Night Football appearance, and I look for an inspired performance this week after the del Rio firing and news that the purchasing owner will keep the team in Jacksonville. Gabbert really needs to perform much better, if he is given the chance to play.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Arizona Cardinals
Dallas is playing much better since DeMarco Murray has been inserted into the starting role, and DeMarcus Ware is having a Defensive MVP type season. I heard a line today that sums up Arizona. "We finally found a way to defend Larry Fitzgerald - John Skelton".

Previous Week's Record: 8-8
Year to Date: 74-68-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $(245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1105

My Argument Against Alabama

Okay, so it appears to be a foregone conclusion that LSU and Alabama will meet in the BCS Championship Game in January to determine college football's National Champion. I think it is the wrong game, and I think LSU is being penalized for being maybe the 2nd best team I have seen in college football. I am going on record now as being in favor of an LSU - Oklahoma State matchup (assuming OSU handles its business against OU next week), and I give you the following for your consideration:

1. I have never agreed with premise that a team should be eligible for the championship game if it does not win its conference. Alabama is not even going to play in the SEC Championship game next weekend. This is ridiculous! LSU has gone through the West Division of the SEC undefeated and is rewarded by having to play an extra game against a much improved Georgia team in Atlanta. I don't think it is going to matter if LSU loses since they have beaten three teams in the top 3 this year and seven ranked teams overall. However, the risk of a loss at the end of a season is significant considering that Alabama is going to be sitting at home resting and watching.

2. Why will Alabama be sitting at home resting next weekend? Because they lost to LSU earlier this month...AT HOME! So, just to be clear, LSU will now be required to beat Alabama twice - once in Tuscaloosa and once on a neutral field. LSU is really getting the short end of the stick here. Hell, I might argue that even if LSU were to lose to Alabama in a championship game, I would STILL give them the trophy for beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa!

3. I don't like the BCS, but it is all we have at the moment. The intent of the BCS is to put the number 1 and 2 teams together every year. This year it is difficult, but not impossible. The computers overwhelmingly have OSU as the second best team in the country. I recognize that the computers don't watch games, but it is an integral part of the formula and again, it is all we have. Also, OSU's only loss was in two overtimes, on the road, on a day when the athletic department lost two basketball coaches in a plane crash. I imagine that the players weren't very close to those involved in the crash, but it must still be traumatic. I don't know, I am thinking about giving them a pass for that.

4. I will not entertain arguments for Virginia Tech (pitiful schedule that they should have murdered), Stanford (embarrassed at home), Houston (please), or Boise State (lost at home to TCU). Nice seasons, but not part of this conversation.

I am not going to say that OSU is a better football team this year than Alabama. I don't know the answer to that and there is no playoff to determine who is better. What I do know is this - LSU is better than Alabama. It was proven at the University of Alabama on national television. It is unfair to LSU to make them prove it again on a neutral field.

My BCS Championship Game is LSU vs. OSU. And there shouldn't be an argument.

Thanksgiving Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +6 v. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay's defense has not looked that great, and Detroit's offense has a lot of firepower. Stafford is a different quarterback at home. I am not saying that the Lions beat the Packers, but they definitely score enough to keep it within a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have looked really good the past 3 or 4 weeks, and they have not given up a touchdown in what seems like forever. That stops today. Cowboys smell the opening to win the division, and I expect them to take a big bite toward that title today.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Very short week and travel from west coast to east coast will be detrimental to the 49ers. Yeah, I know I know they have won every east coast game this year, but the Ravens are not the Redskins. Plus, Torrey Smith has brought an additional dimension to the Ravens offense.

Chicago Bears +4 at Oakland Raiders
I have bet the Raiders more times than most this year, but I think this Bears team is really gelling on defense. If Hanie can get a good full week of practice in before the game, and if he continues to show the strengths he brought to the second half of the NFC Championship game, then the Bears should be all right. Plus, they have the non-Aaron Rodgers MVP of the league in Matt Forte.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been a big disappointment for a lot of people this year. Although they still have some good, young talent, the Titans are a really tough team. Johnson might be rounding into form, and whether Hasselback can play or not, Jake Locker looks like he can play.

St. Louis Rams No Line v. Arizona Cardinals
I think that you are starting at QB for Arizona this week.

New York Jets -9 v. Buffalo Bills
The loss of Fred Jackson cannot be overestimated. The fact that the Bills were on a downward spiral with Jackson doesn't help either. The only reason this isn't a 15 or 17 point spread is because the Bills have the better quarterback.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have no idea what we are going to get in Matt Leinart, and nobody else does either. Not even the Texans. Especially not the Texans. However, the Jaguars know exactly what they are getting in Blaine Gabbert.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Boy are the Colts bad without Peyton.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Andy Dalton is making a run at NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Browns are in complete disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's offense is reeling, and the Falcons seem to be out of the funk they were in at the beginning of the season.

Washington Redskins + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
I am still not picking Seattle.

San Diego Chargers -6 v. Denver Broncos
The Chargers have not been very good and they turn the ball over, but that's OK because this Broncos offense cannot move the ball effectively. If Rivers doesn't throw interceptions, the Chargers are due for a win.

New England Patriots -4 at Philadelphia Eagles
So the league has figured out that the way to stop Welker is to play him man-to-man, but the Pats have Gronkowski and Hernandez. The Eagles don't even know if they will have Vick, although I suspect they will. I expect a shootout, with the Pats winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. New York Giants
The Saints offense was hitting on all cylinders just prior to the bye week. I think the week off will do nothing but refresh them. The Giants have been Jekyll and Hyde this year, but I think the Saints score enough anyway.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 1/2 at Kansas City
I hate to make a double digit spread my "Big Bet of the Week", but then again, have you seen Kansas City play? Mike Wallace has emerged as one of the best receivers in the league, Mendenhall is a solid running back, and they still have that Steeler defense (although not as Steel as in the past).

Previous Week's Record: 6-6-2
Year to Date: 66-60-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $90
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1350