Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Picks of the Week

This has been an incredibly interesting, which makes for horrible gambling odds, and yours truly has been affected, just like everyone else.  Average teams, like say the Buccaneers and Jets, look amazing one week, and horrendous the next.  Why can't average teams, just play average, so that we know what is going on.  Oh well, such is life.  Another .500 week, which I would ordinarily take, but it came along with my first big bet loss, so another week in the red.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons - 2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was an easy pick - but not an easy win.  Home team on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against New York Jets (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

The Jets defense, at least their pass defense, is starting to live up to its pre-season reputation, but unfortunately, the offense is struggling, and I don't think Aaron Rodgers (26 straight games under 300 yards passing) is the quarterback to turn this team around.  

Chicago Bears -4 v. Carolina Panthers

Yes, the Panthers seem to be much better with Andy Dalton behind center, but Carolina's bad defense may be just what Caleb Williams needs to get going after a 353 yard passing game (in a loss) followed by last week's win.  Chicago's defense is 5th in third-down percentage, which will be crucial in giving the offense as many possessions as needed.

New England Patriots +1 v. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offens has been struggling (23rd passing, 24th rushing, 24th overally, last in points), but nowhere near as bad as New England's (31st in points, last in pass defense and overall defense).  But, then again, Miami is on a short week.  Give me the point.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville has been THE disappointment this season.  But, they have to win at some point, right?  The Jaguars have the 10th best rushing defense and are playing a Colts team without Jonathan Taylor - although Trey Sermon has a lot of talent.  Conversely the Colts are 31st in rush defense, and Tank Bigsby has been punishing defensive lines off the bench.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Houston Texans

If I told you the Bills offense was actually struggling statistically, you would not believe me, but, they are 17th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 21st overall.  But somehow, they are second in scoring.  Houston has been great against the pass (4th), but they won't be able to stop Buffalo coming off their beating at the hands of Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I really tried to find a way to select Cincinnati as a home underdog, but I just couldn't.  Baltimore will be on a roll following their thrashing of the Bills to get to 2-2 after starting 0-2.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Washington has been playing too well - especially on offense where they are 6th overall, 3rd in scoring and 3rd in rushing offense) - to not pick them against a bad and boring Cleveland team what supposedly has Amari Cooper on the trade block.

Denver Broncos -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Denver has been playing games very close this year, even when they have looked bad.  Bo Nix looks like he has something, for sure.  The Raiders ... have a big Davante Adams problem ... and Gardner Minshew.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

Despite being great, San Francisco has not really overwhelmed this season, so 7 points seems like a lot of points to give to a team that looks like it has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, Jr. starting to click!

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. New York Giants

Seattle is on a short week, but New York is without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabors.  At least Seattle gets to stay at home.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

If the Jacksonville Jaguars did not exist, this Dallas Cowboys team would be the disappointment of the season.  Ezekial Elliott returned to the backfield and he just proved that the Cowboys were right to jettison him the first time.  Dallas hasn't run on anybody this year - last in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is tough to run on anyway (3rd best in the NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs - 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Given the Saints abilities to play to the level of their opponent, New Orleans seems like the safest bet here.  And when a bet seems too obvious, go the other way.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

I really wanted to pick Seattle here, but giving 7 points is a lot for a team on a short week.  Yes Green Bay lost last week, but Minnesota is legit, and the Rams are not.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-32-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($435)