Picks of the Week

So, regressed to the mean and gave back a few bucks last week, just like I knew was going to happen.  But, either way, there is going to be some football this weekend, as I am reporting to you live from The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida - one of the few reasons to ever go to Jacksonville, Florida.  Hell, even the Jaguars play their home games in London.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ten points is A LOT in this league, but had to go for the home team on the short week.  And it would have worked except for the damn facemask on Jordan Phillips.  Oh well - gotta make it up on Sunday!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Everything about the Steelers says they are a bad team.  Like, really, really bad.  Next-to-last (31st) in offense and just slightly better (30th) in defense.  But somehow they are 4-2 and are getting points at home against a good, but somewhat milquetoast Jaguars team.  Probably a dumb pick, but I keep coming back to Pittsburgh.

New York Giants +3 v. New York Jets

Both home teams, so that doesn't matter.  This could be a game in which both teams struggle to score.  For that reason, and that reason alone I am taking the points.  

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Houston is an average team that is surprisingly entertaining, and Carolina is neither of those things.  I  know it is six games in, but C.J. Stroud has taken an early, but sizable lead in the "Who is the best rookie QB" race.  Whomever wants Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), get your offers ready for the Bears, as Chicago has Carolina's first round pick.

New England Patriots +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

After seeing what the Patriots defense did to the Bills last week, I am taking this spread.  I expect Miami to win, but maybe Bailey Zappe in relief of Mac Jones scoring a backdoor cover to lose 30-21?

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Desmond Ridder is sufficiently competent, and could we be seeing Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan? (Perhaps to the Bills, or Browns?)

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

I honestly don't feel good about this pick, or if I picked Dallas, either.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Commanders

Road intra-divisional favorites are always tough to pick, but after the way the Eagles made the Dolphins look last week, it is hard to bet against them, even giving a touchdown.  Plus, Washington is 26th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia has the toughest rush defense, giving up just under 63 yards per game. Then, add to that the increasing winds around potential trades of Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young, and this could get ugly depending upon how Washington responds.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes interesting, mostly nondescript offense led by Derek Carr versus a sometimes intriguing, mostly milquetoast offense led by Gardner Minshew.  Taking New Orleans only because of their tough defense (3rd overall, 4th passing, 6th scoring).

Cleveland Browns +4 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game could actually go either way, especially since the Browns are led by future-XFL Hall-of-Famer P.J. Walker.  But that Cleveland defense is just too banging.  Kareem Hunt is a legitimate starter in this league, but could Cleveland be in the Derrick Henry sweepstakes?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Denver Broncos

If this game was last week, I would have selected Denver, since Kansas City had played pretty close games except for their blowout win against Chicago.  But, their victory over the Chargers may have convinced me that they are truly starting to click.  What happens when Mecole Hardman gets settled in.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Vikings, I am definitely taking the points in this game with San Francisco having played Monday night.  

Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens win this game, but I just cannot give up double digits at home.  Ravens win 23-14.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have to be the best 2-4 team ever.  Seriously.  Justin Herbert has a 97.1 rating.  They are 5th in total offense, but, oh yeah, 31st in total defense and 32nd in passing defense.  That probably won't matter against a Bears team that is 28th in scoring, but it might matter enough for Chicago to cover.

Detroit Lions -8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a mess.  They just gave up 30 to the Bears, and barely beat the Patriots and Packers in the two weeks before that.  Meanwhile the Lions will be angry coming off last week's shellacking at the hands of the Ravens.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

This SHOULD happen.  Easiest picks on the board often surprise, thought, and that is what I don't like, except Kirk Cousins is playing in the noon slot!

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-43-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,275

Picks of the Week

I guess putting some thought and analysis into games can help.  13-2 BABY!!!  Quite possibly my best week ever, even including weeks before I kept this blog.  Now, I know that a reversal is coming, and probably deserved, so I am going to tempt fate and just brag about this week for a while, until that reversal occurs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

There would have to be a very compelling reason for me to select the visiting team on a short week.  The Jaguars getting points is that compelling reason.

Chicago Bears +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The obvious selection here is the Raiders, but when not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks will be starting a game, strange things will happen, like maybe a 8-6 Raiders victory!

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

Buffalo Bills -8 at New England Patriots

This New England team cannot score points (31st in the league at 12 per game), and they cannot teams from scoring (Tied for 24th in the league.)  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 3rd in scoring and 3rd in scoring defense.

New York Giants +3 v. Washington Commanders

I actually like thsi Commanders squad a little bit more than most, but I am making this selection on a feeling that Saquon Barkley with a game under his belt is going to be closer to his real self, and that will open up some passing lanes for Darren Waller as well.  Close game, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For all of the tealk about the 3-2 Buccaneers being the surprise team in the NFC South, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons are about even or better in most offensive stats, and are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.  Imagine if they had a quarterback?!

Detroit Lions +3 at Baltimore Ravens

This is strength on strength.  Detroit's 3rd-ranked offense versus Baltimore's 3rd-ranked defense.  The Lions are the number 4 passing team in the league and 8th rushing team.  Baltimore is the 2nd-best passing defense and 9th-best rushing defense.  Detroit is the 4th-highest scoring team, and Baltimore is the 4th stingiest defense.  The difference?  Detroit's defense is better than Baltimore's offense.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona is a really bad squad, on both sides of the ball, with the exception that they use to be able to run the ball with James Conner - but he is on IR.  But, Seattle isn't THAT good to  be giving up 9 plus points.  They only score 24 a game, and give up 21.6.  I'll take the points and avoid watching this game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have won several games selecting Pittsburgh as an underdog this year.  But not this game against this offense.  The Rams are 5th in total offense and 6th in passing.  The Steelers are 30th in total defense and 25th in passing defense.  I expect the Rams to put up more than enough points to coast, even if TJ Watt gets a sack or two.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Denver Broncos

Only because Aaron Jones returning makes him the best player on the field for either team.  Another game to avoid watching!

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City hasn't exactly been lighting teams up.  With the exception of the Bears game, KC has played teams pretty close, including a boring 19-8 performance against the Broncos last week.  So, taking the points seems obvious here.  But, then we see the Chargeres are last in the league in passing defense and next-to-last in total defense, so if there is a team against which the Chiefs could solve some of their offensive problems, this would be it.  And ... the Chargers played Monday night, so they are on a short week.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

These are the two best offenses in the league.  The Eagles defense is just a bit better than the Dolphins.  When something is seemingly close, I'll take the points.  I don't like this pick though, and I wouldn't like it if I picked Philly, either.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco looked good - or at least as good as any offense has looked against the Browns this year - in a loss, whereas the Vikings looked bad in a win against the lowly Bears.  I expect San Francisco to bounce back in a big way.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

I don't like any of these picks strongly enough to make them my big bet, so I landed here.  I don't like this one because I hate giving up points on the road; but so was Atlanta.  I thought about the Giants at home, but I am not comfortable with that pick.  KC merited consideration, but they have been a bit sluggish.  In short, I just felt more confident in Cleveland than anybody else.

Last Week's Record:  13-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  53-36-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1,230

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,610

Picks of the Week

 

I put in no analysis last week, and it showed in the results.  Hopefully a little thought could me a few more wins this week.  Got off to a good start on Thursday night, and hopefully can keep that rolling!

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I hate giving up double digit points to an intradivisional rival, but the fact that this is a short week gave me cover - see what I did there? - to take the Chiefs.  No way was a sweating the ultimately 19-8 victory!  (You better not believe that!)

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Baltimore wins this easily.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears getting points at home, with a suddenly resurgent offense (9th in rushing, 11th in scoring and a now-potent passing attack) going aginst the 22nd ranked passing defense, and 20th overall).

Washington Commanders  +1 at Atlanta Falcons

If Washington can keep doing whatever they did in the second half against the Bears, they might have found an offense under Sam Howell.  But, it was the Bears.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems to clearly be the class of the NFL right now, so why would I pick Cleveland, with a backup quarterback?  Well, it is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 slot, and, Cleveland's defense is legit!  First in total defense, passing defense and third-down percentage, 3rd in scoring defense, and 4th in rushing defense.  San Francisco very well may win, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points under these circumstance.  Now, let's see who plays QB.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This was a tough call for me, but New Orleans has been playing much better since Alvin Kamara's return, and Houston's strength, it's passing game, could be negated by New Orleans' passing defense, which is 4th in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

This is just a stupid line.  Just stupid.  Nobody in their right mind would give up this many points in an NFL game.  Carolina's defense is solid, also, against the pass at least (6th).  But Miami can run over just about anyone, even with Achane out.  Mostert is fast himself, and a solid running back.  And, something stupid happens every week.  Why not this game, at home, in the heat, against a rookie quarterback experiencing growing pains.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 v. Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew's return to Jacksonville, and don't laugh, but dude can throw.  He has a 95.1 rating so far this year in limited action.  But, Jacksonville seems to be playing better - in London, mind you - than they were in a week 1 31-21 victory over Indianapolis, in Indiana.  I expect this game to be close, but Jacksonville wins it, and covers.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. New England Patriots

Nobody wants to watch this game, and I feel the wheels have come off the Patriots wagon.  Even with the Raiders on a short week, I feel I have to pick them here.  Is it time for Bailey Zappe?  So, the Patriots keep losing and end up with the number 4 pick.  Trade it to Chicago - who holds Carolina's number 1 pick, for a swap in number 1s, a 2025 #1, a 2026 #1, and a 2024 #3.  Go Raiders!!!

Detroit Lions -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the Buccaneers are much better than expected playing behind a resurgent Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are just better.  And the fact they are 9th in total defense is impressive as well.  Detroit can book a ticket to the playoffs playing in the less-than-stellar NFC North; meanwhile the NFC South is equally less-than-stellar. 

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Even though they are only 2-3, the Rams rank 8th in total offense, 5th in passing offense and 14th in scoring.  AND Cooper Kupp is back after knocking off the rust last week with 8 catches for 118 yards.  Arizona's defense leads a lot to be desired, ranking 26th in passing defense, 27th in scoring, and 28th overall.  I expcet the Rams to put up 35 and cruise to a win.

New York Jets +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are undefeated and the Jets are playing Zach Wilson.  But, hear me out here...Wilson has been better, and the Jets defense can be really tough.  Plus, the Eagles haven't really blown anyone out - with a 25-11 victory over Tampa in week 3 their largest margin. Even last week the Eagles beat the Rams by 9 with two 4th quarter field goals from Jake Elliott.  I believe they stay undefeated, but win by 4.

New York Giants +15 at Buffalo Bills

There is no way I am giving up 2 touchdowns or more on 2 different games this week.  Since I am already giving up 14 to Carolina in the Dolphins game, I will not do it here.  Why this game?  Well, I think Daniel Jones is done - whether for good or just in New York I don't know - so I think the team may have more confidence and be better offensively with Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor was 9-12 for 86 yards and 14 yards rushing in limited time last week.  Plus, Taylor will try to actually target their best pass-catcher, Darren Waller.  On top of that, things are "optimistic" that Saquon Barkley will return.  He is a game changer, and can be the difference between losing by 28 and losing by 13.

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys defense is going to come out IRATE after last week's drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. And although corner is a problem right now for Dallas, with passing being the best part of the Chargers offense - even more so with the return of Austin Ekeler - the Chargers' 31st ranked defense, and last ranked pass defense might be just what Dallas needs to re-invigorate CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas offense.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Even though the Browns and Jets are at home getting lots of points, and the Giants are away getting lots of points, I just could not pull the trigger on them as my big bet.  So, here is a home team giving away a few points.  I just have to hope the Bengals did find themselves last week and that it continues over to this week.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  40-34-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $380

Picks of the Week

 

Finished in the black, albeit just a little last week, but I will take it.  I am travelling today, so no analysis, just picks.

Washington Commanders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Miami Dolphins -12 1/2 v. New York Giants 

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 at New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit Lions -9 v. Carolina Panthers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tenneessee Titans -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Rams +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

 

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Awful game, I am just taking the points.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I don't really like this pick, but the other two games I considered, Baltimore and Kansas City, are road favorites, so they are giving points.

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  34-26-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $75

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $510