Picks of the Week

 

Another subpar week, but still up on the year, so that is a good thing.  This is a ridiculously tough week given all of the Covid 19 dianosis and re-schedulings that have occurred, and really should occur, who knows what is going to happen.  Honestly, I am taking SARS-CoV-2 giving 19.  For those of you keeping score, that is Covid -19.  The big bet has gotten my 4 weeks in a row, after starting 7-0.  This has to turn around if I am going to finish in the money.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 at Detroit Lions

DeShaun Watson is quietly having his best season of his career, and coming off an absolute gem last week in defeating New England.  Detroit is a dumpster fire, with Mina Kimes already tweeting "Is Matt Stafford tall enough for John Elway".  And, this loss led to Detroit's firing of Head Coach Matt Patricia and the GM.

Washington Football Team +3 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate picking the road team in short weeks, and here I am picking two on Thanksgiving Day.  And, Dallas is even coming off a good performance last week against Minnesota Vikings.  However, I feel that performance is an anomaly, and the Cowboys are in the midst of a week in which they saw their strength and conditioning coach Markus Paul - a Chicago Bear - die at practice.  Must be emotional for them, but emotion is often hard to channel into performance.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

My third selection, why not going against the gambling rules again?  Well, because they are rules for a reason, and they pay off more often than not.  And, being a road favorite west coast team playing at the 1:00 time slot seems just way too many rules for me not to take the points.  I get that the Raiders are better, but their best attribute is running the football - but that is only 7th in the NFL.  And, their passing defense is 28th in the NFL going against the 2nd best passing offense in the league.  Maybe the Raiders win, but they don't cover.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 2-3 in their last 5, but those two wins come against the Jets and the Jaguars, who are vying for the 1st overall pick in next year's NFL draft.  Chargers have talent, for sure, but travelling west to play an early game against teh AFC East leading Buffalo Bills and their 4th rated passing offense is going to be too much.

New York Giants -6 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen is staring in place of Joe Burrow.

Tennessee Titans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

The 5th best rushing offense (Tennessee - and the NFL's leading rusher in Derrick Henry) against the 3rd best rushing defense (Indianapolis).  This is going to be one tough, physical battle.  In those situations, I take the points.  Could this end 24-23 (in either direction?)

Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville.  This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Carolina Panthers 

Minnesota has to rebound from last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys, right?  Plus, Carolina has a middling rush defense (18th in the NFL) to try to stop the league's second-leading rusher, Dalvin Cook.  I don't think they do, but this was a tough game for me to decide.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  And, after beating Baltimore two weeks ago, the Patriots lost to a Houston team (on the road), that just recently decimated the Detroit Lions (yes, it is Detroit, but still).  I don't think this will be a pretty game, so I will take points at home.

Miami Dolphins -7 at New York Jets

Why would I take a fifth road favorite?  Well, because the Dolphins already beat the Jets 24-0 just a few weeks ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off a benching is practically invincible, and the Jets must be actively playing for the first overall pick.  The thing that scares me here is that Sam Darnold - who is getting the start at QB for the Jets - is playing a showcase game for whichever team wants to trade for him for next season.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I honestly do not expect this game to occur.  Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week.  I know, I know.  You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either.  So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest.  I expect this game to be a massacre.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

The Rams are starting to really click with wins over Seattle and Tampa Bay after the crazy loss at Miami in Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa's debut start.  San Francisco, which earlier defeated the Rams, are a shell of their former selves with basically nobody left healthy from their opening day roster.  And, they just received news that Santa Clara, the actual municipality where they play their home games, has put a 21 day Covid-19 moratorium on any contact sports being played in the city limits - and the 49ers are supposed to have two home games during this period.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I did not want to pick Tampa Bay here, honestly, but I did not want to select a seventh road favorite.  And, even when winning recently, the Chiefs have played some close games, and haven't looked like they are completely clicking.  So, I'll take more than a field goal at home.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Mitchell Trubisky is back, cue fake hoorays!!!  Honestly, Green Bay is going to win this game, but given that Trubisky is good at comebacks in the 4th quarter, he scores a late touchdown to lose by 8.

Seattle Seahawks -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks defense is actually improving, giving up only 21 to Arizona last week and 16 to the Rams the week prior.  Philadelphia is horrible.  So, great.  a 7th road favorite!!!

Pittsburgh Steelers (No Line Yet) v. Baltimore Ravens

Playing on Tuesday, after being moved from Sunday, after being moved from Thanksgiving prime time due to Covid.  Once the Steelers complained that this is the second time they have had games moved (including losing a bye week) due to the other team's Covid issues, they had at least 2 players (Stephon Tuitt and James Conner) test positive.  Not sure who is going to be playing or what the line is going to be.  I assume that I am taking the Steelers as Lamar Jackson won't be playing.  I will make my official selection once the line is made.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I honestly do not expect this game to occur.  Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week.  I know, I know.  You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either.  So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest.  I expect this game to be a massacre.

I hate picking road teams as my big bet, especially when giving points, but this is a unique situations.  My primary concern would be a letdown by the Saints.  But seriously, though, look at this quarterback room ... Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles.  And you are telling me that Colin Kaepernick couldn't play quarterback in the NFL today?!  Seriously?! 

If, and only if, the New Orleans at Denver game is canceled, I select the following as my Big Bet, and I am by no means happy about is.

Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville.  This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.

I am not happy because I was selecting between three 7 point favorites, only 1 of which was at home.  But, given that this isn't a divisional rivalry and that it involves Brandon Allen and/or Ryan Finley, I will take this game as my backup Big Bet.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  84-73-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

   

The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough.  Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I hated this line and I hated this pick.  Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also.  I will take that win.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens

Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL.  That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears.  But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.)  I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close.  A tough, tough game for both teams.

Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers

This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit.  Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater?  Probably too much.  And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week.  Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries.  This game could get ugly.

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30.  But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th).  In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback.  I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards.  That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you).  (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver.   Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season.  But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football.  Give me the Dolphins.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets

Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME.  Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26.  That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense.  The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road.  But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers.  And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well.  And, I get points!!!  I'll take them.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right?  So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts.  Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing.  But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check.  However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense.  Deciding factors?  Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year.  But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid.  At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list.  Who knows how many will be ready to play?

Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great.  I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia.  But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row.  My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense.  So, Belichick it is.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205

Picks of the Week

  

Hello Friends.  That's right, it is Masters Sunday.  And nobody is as psyched as I am for a slate of early games ending as the Masters Champion is crowned.  Too bad Dustin Johnson left himself a four-shot cushion, because this was shaping up to be a great battle after the second round.  

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

Remember way back three weeks ago when people were discussing the Titans as being the best team in the NFL?  Well, their punter isn't.

Carolina Panthers +6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, I know Carolina is without Christian McCaffrey, but this spread just seems a little high. I look for Teddy Two Gloves (is their a better mafia nickname in the NFL) and a resurgent Curtis Samuel, to have good enough games against Tampa's middling pass defense (14th in the league) to keep this game close, amd Joey Slye to have a bunch of field goals.

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Nick Chubb is activated just in time to face the NFL's worst run defense.  I expect Chubb to make up for lost time.

Washington Football Team +3 v. Detroit Lions

When I first saw this line, I immediately said, "Detroit, clearly".  (Well, maybe I shouldn't have used quotation marks because I didn't actually say it, but you know what I mean.)  But looking into it, yes the offense struggle smightily (30th overall in both total offense and scoring offense), but the defense has been stout (6th in total defense, 1st in passing defense).  Their struggles against the run (23rd in rush defense) should not be a problem against the Lions 24th ranked rush offense).

Green Bay Packers -13 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Now that Aaron Rodgers has his fellow Aaron running mate back (Aaron Jones), this offense should kill against the NFL's 31st ranked scoring defense, 29th ranked total defense, 28th ranked passing defense, and 27th ranked rushing defense).  Suddenly, the Jaguars are in the running for Trevor Lawrence/Justin Fields.

New York Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have played really close games lately, winning by 3 last week over Washington, then playing games decided by 2 (loss), 1 (loss), 1 (win), and 3 (loss) respectively to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas in the four games prior.  There is no reason to think this is a four point game.  And, I cannot believe I am typing this, but this is an incredibly important game with playoff implications.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 at Miami Dolphins

I feel that everyone is jumping on the Dolphins by virtue of their two consective wins behind Tuanigamanuaepola Tagavailoa, but it is Justin Herbert that has actually been putting up numbers.  The Chargers have a wonderful offense (2nd overall, 5th in passing offense, 8th in rushing offense), which should be too much for the Dolphins, who do celebrate the return of linebacker Kyle van Noy.   Los Angeles benefits from the 4:00 start.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Listen, I realize that this Bills team is way better than we all thought, and that was even coming off a playoff season.  But, their middle-of-the-road defense might have their hands full with Arizona's 3rd ranked total offense (2nd in rushing), which will also see the return of Kenyan Drake.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 v. Denver Broncos

I have not been able to figure either of these teams out (although my pick of Denver a number of weeks ago against New England was widely scorned - even though correct), so I am just taking the home team.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has at least made Cincinnati's offense exciting, but this game does not bode well for the Bengals.  Pittsburgh has the 7th best total defense, 5th best pass defense, 9th best rush defense and 4th best scoring defense.  AND, Ben Roethlisberger can play despite being exposed to Vance McDonald, who was diagnosed with Covid-19.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Russel Wilson hs led Seattle to the number 1 socring offense, passing offense and total offense, which they need desperately because their defense is 30th in scoring defense, and dead last in passing defense and total defense.  I feel that Sean McVay with his multi-formation, multi-movement, elusive offense could take advantage of the Seahawks defense to win this game.

New Orleans Saints -9 v. San Francisco 49ers

I know that the NFL changes week-to-week, and not to read too much into any given game or week, but last week's thrashings (by New Orleans of Tampa Bay and of San Francisco by Green Bay) are incredibly hard to ignore.  Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders being back is huge for the Saints.

Baltimore Ravens -7 at New England Patriots

The number 1 rushing offense in the NFL at just over 170 yards per game, against a New England defense that is 25th in the NFL in rushing defense.  Plus, New England is on a short week.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes, I know this looks like a homer pick, but it really isn't.  It is just the law of averages.  Dalvin Cook cannot have games like the last two weeks, and he has to come back to earth at some point, why not on Monday night?

Bye Week - Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets

Big Bet

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Nick Chubb is activated just in time to face the NFL's worst run defense.  I expect Chubb to make up for lost time.

Houston's defense is just not very good, and the offense is lackluster.  I wonder if DeShaun Watson wishes he had DeAndre Hopkins back?  Yes, that was rhetorical.  My other thoughs were New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-58-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1440

Picks of the Week

 

Well, after six consecutive winning weeks, I got annihilated last week.  Frankly, I am glad that it happened because I was just waiting for it to happen.  The real kicker, though, is that I lost my first Big Bet of the season.  Ouch.  Now that it is over with, hopefully I can get back to my winning ways.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Green Bay Packers

I was OK with this since San Francisco was a home team on a short week, but honestly, I didn't realize Aaron Jones was returning for the Packers.  That was a big mistake.

Tennessee Titans -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The biggest problem with the Bears is their offensive line, and they lose another starter (their third), this time it's Cody Whitehair to Covid-19.  Not good, especially since they have their immobile starter in Nick Foles.

 

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Denver Broncos

The NFL's second ranked passing offense (and 6th overall), gets to host Denver, who has been playing better under Drew Lock, having won 3 of their last 4.  But, Atlanta's passing attack will be too much.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Buffalo Bills

I am going against the "west coast team travelling east and playing the early game" adage because in the Russell Wilson Era, the Seahawks seem to be immune to this betting rule.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Indianapolis Colts

This is the proverbial immovable object meets the irresistable force as the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense (Baltimore) meets the NFL's number one ranked total defense (and 2nd ranked rush defense) in the Colts.  The difference here will be that the Colts' offense has been paltry under Philip Rivers, whereas the Ravens defense is typically stout (2nd in scoring defense).

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Houston Texans

I have no reason for this pick whatsoever.  This is a game that seems like Houston should win, so it seems to easy.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Carolina Panthers

Second in scoring offense, and not even the return of Christian McCaffrey can keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit's rush defense (23rd in the NFL), is not going to be able to handle the whirling dervish that is Dalvin Cook.

Washington Football Team -3 v. New York Giants

Believe this or not, Washington's defense is 4th in total defense and 1st in passing defense.  Offense is not great, but it is still better than the Giants' offense (30th and 31st).  Plus, the Giants are on a short week.  Have I mentioned that I love typing Washington Football Team?!

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at Los Angeles Chargers

Ooooh, I get to pick a road favorite.  I am sooooo daring.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big number for a road favorite (counteracting the Raiders 1 point), but the Cowboys have scored 1 offensive touchdown since Dak Prescott went down.  I don't expect them to score too many against Pittsburgh's 6th ranked defense (total, passing, scoring - 5th in rushing defense).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas is back, but will it take a while for him to get back into rhythm.  Tampa Bay is clicking on offense, using everyone.   Even before Michael Thomas went out, New Orlease was slogging through their games, even their wins.  It does scare me that it is a short week for Tampa Bay, but hopefully the fact this is a night game minimizes that.

New England Patriots -9 1/2 at New York Jets

This is not your normal New England Patriots, but it is your normal New York Jets.  They are horrible.  I don't like this spread for a prime time game, especially given New England's 29th ranked scoring offense, but they took the Bills down to the wire in Buffalo last week - losing only due to a late Cam Newton fumble, and Damien Harris is turning into a really good running back.

Bye Week - Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

I honestly see Arizona scoring a lot of points.  Yes, Miami has the number-1 ranked scoring defense, but they are 23rd in total defense, 20th in passing defense, and 21st in rushing defense).  So, Miami's defensive ranking is very much an anomaly.

Others that I thought about for this spot, Tennessee over Chicago, Kansas City over Carolina, and Washington over New York Giants.

Last Week's Record:  4-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-50-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($755)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1885

Picks of the Week

     

Six consecutive winning weeks.  Woo Hoo!!!  I know this streak is going to end, I am just going to ride it as long as I can.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 v, Atlanta Falcons

Simply because they were the home team.  I couldn't get  a real read on this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 at Baltimore Ravens

In this battle, I am taking the points.  I wish I did this earlier as the spread was 6 at the beginning of the week.   A battle of two very similar teams that know each other well.

 

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Detroit Lions

To below average offenses (Indy 23rd/Detroit 21st), but the Colts defense is much, much toughter (1st in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 4th in scoring defense).

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 3oth rank scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Nothing would surprise me with Bill Belichick, but this is not his year.  I expect Buffalo to score a bunch against New England.

Tennessee Titans -7 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals can move the ball through the air (12th in the league), but by every other metric they are not good.  At least Joe Burrow is proving worthy of the #1 pick.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland can run the ball extremely well (3rd in the league), and the Raiders (16th in the league) are mediocre at stopping the run.  Plus, we have a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game - although they do get an extra hour of rest due to the ending of Daylight Savings Time.

Kansas City Chiefs -19 1/2 v. New York Jets

This spread is utterly ridiculous.  Just ludicrous.  And I am just crazy enough to take it and give almost 3 touchdowns.  Frankly, it is because it makes this game more exciting to watch, and it is the only way to make this game exciting.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK.  Rookie quarterback making his first start against a team that is clearly playing well, especially on defense.  But, the Rams are coming off a short week and traveling east and playing the early game.  Who am I to go against the gambling Gods.  Did I mention that I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK?  But, the Tuanigamanuolepola era begins!!!

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Competing gambling rules here, don't pick too many road favorites versus Chicago on a short week.  I feel that since New Orleans' defense is nowhere near as dynamic as the LA Rams' defense was, that Chicago's offense might gain enough ground to keep this close.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos

In a battle of 2-4 teams, only the Chargers have looked better under Herbert.  And honestly, this spread and pick is another reason why I picked the Bears earlier, too many road favorites, but since Denver is only averaging under 20 points a game, I feel like the Chargers could score enough to win 27-17.

San Francisco 49ers +2 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has struggled through a number of injuries, but still have the 9th total offense, and 8th rushing offense, along with a tremendous defense (3rd in passing defense, 4th in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 9th in rushing defense), they should have enough to take advantage of Seattle's horrendous defense.

Dallas Cowboys +10 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Horrible spread for a horrible game.  The DiNucci Era begins!!!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12 1/2 at New York Giants

Tampa is averaging over 31 points a game, and the Giants only average 17.  And, honestly, if I am taking Kansas City giving up 19 1/2 points, I should take Tom Brady giving up less than two touchdowns.  And really, the story of Tampa Bay has been the emergence of Ronald Jones.  He is really showing why the Buccaneers were sold on him in the first place.

Bye Week - Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team (Oh My God do I LOVE typing that)

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 30th ranked scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour continues - even with Aaron Jones injured (who was having a phenomenal season), and I wanted to pick for my Big Bet a home team.  My other thoughts were Buffalo over New England, and Tennessee over Cincinnati.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  61-41-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2640