Picks of the Week

Baltimore disappointed us all, but WOW, that Kansas City - Houston game was AMAZING!!!  I certainly could watch that game over and over.  So much going on in that game that it was hard to keep up.  Almost makes up for the cluster that was betting on Baltimore.  Today we only have two games upon which to focus, so it makes each bet that much more important.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are on a serious roll, but the Chiefs' offense is seriously rolling.  Tennessee cannot keep relying on Derrick Henry to the point the ignore the passing game entirely and win this game.  Kansas City rolls.

Kansas City Chiefs -320 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $320 to win $100)
If I think the Chiefs are going to cover, then I definitely think they will win outright.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 52 1/2
The only question after last week is will Kansas City hit this number on its own.

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Francisco 49ers
Does anyone not think that Aaron Rodgers can at least keep this one close, especially now that Aaron Jones has started to hit his stride?

San Francisco 49ers -350 over Green Bay Packers (Bet $350 to win $100)
Just because I think Green Bay can keep it close, does not mean that I think they are going to win.  In fact, San Francisco has basically been the best team in the NFC this entire season.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 1/2
The under has hit way more than in should in these playoffs, and part of that is the quality of the defenses left.  Green Bay is 9th in scoring defense in the NFL and San Francisco is 8th.  I guess this means that the over will definitely hit, but I am taking the UNDER.

Big Bet I

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 52 1/2
The only question after last week is will Kansas City hit this number on its own.
I am just hoping this game is even remotely as exciting as last week's.

Big Bet II

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Francisco 49ers
Does anyone not think that Aaron Rodgers can at least keep this one close, especially now that Aaron Jones has started to hit his stride?
This game will be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playoffs)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 1/2
The under has hit way more than in should in these playoffs, and part of that is the quality of the defenses left.  Green Bay is 9th in scoring defense in the NFL and San Francisco is 8th.  I guess this means that the over will definitely hit, but I am taking the UNDER.
The Unders have been huge this playoffs.

Last Week's Record:  8-4
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-2
Year-to-Date Record:  139-138-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  17-10
Playoff Record:  15-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,005)

Picks of the Week

With the exception of the Minnesota - New Orleans game, last week was very good.  Even with my 3 losses from that one wildcard game (and one BAD one at -$400), I still finished up for the week.  Let's see how that playoff luck continues in the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers -320 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $320 to win $100)
San Francisco is the better team, they should win this game.  Of course, Minnesota got me last week as well, but Rudolph did push-off on the game winning touchdown and the playoff rules stink - both teams should at least get one possession.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 1/2
These defenses are good, and San Francisco is getting a ton of players back from injury.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee is the type of hard-nosed, ball-control team that could give Baltimore trouble.  For that, there is no way that I will give up 10 points in this round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -450 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $450 to win $100)
This is the type of line to make me consider taking Tennessee, but I do feel that the Ravens will win this game, and I am confident in that so I have to take the money line on them to win.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47
Two ball control teams will limit possessions, thus limiting scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by 2 touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs -450 v. Houston Texans (Bet $450 to win $100)
See my analysis of the Baltimore money line and the Chiefs ATS bet.  Patrick Mahomes will put up POINTS.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 51
A 35-14 Chiefs victory still hits the under here.

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.

Green Bay Packers -200 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $200 to win $100)
Despite the fact that I think this is going to be a close game, at plus $170, there is not enough value for me to take a team with no running game fronted by Travis Homer.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers OVER 46 1/2
I can't pick all unders, and in this one, Green Bay wins 27-24.

Big Bet I

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.
This game is going to be close.

Big Bet II

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by at least 2 touchdowns.

This game is not.  35-14.

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.
Seattle would win this game is Chris Carson was healthy.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-134-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  16-8
Playoff Record:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $85
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($815)

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)