Sunday, September 15, 2019

Picks of the Week



So, last week was HORRRRRRRIBLE.  I prefaced the column last week by saying that I did not pay attention at all to the preseason.  Perhaps I should have.  Not perhaps, I definitely should have.  It definitely would and could not have made last week's pics worse.  Believe me.  But, seriously, who had the Browns looking THAT bad.  Who had Cincinnati outgaining Seattle by over 200 yards? Seriously.  Well, hopefully I learned some things from last week, but am not going to super overreact to outcomes that were outside of the norm.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Never take the visiting team on a short week.  It didn't pan out this week, but it does over 70% of the time.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of competing rules at play in this game. Never take a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  And yes, I know that Arizona isn't "west coast", but they do not follow daylight savings time so they are in the Pacific time zone currently (technically Mountain Standard Time).  Bur, it is hard to cover a double digit spread, especially when it is basically two touchdowns.  So, I have a bid decision to make.  Baltimore will win, but not cover.  Arizona played a lot better in the fourth quarter last week, so I am going to say they are progressing a bit enough to keep this close. If they give David Johnson enough touches, they could keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands enough to keep this within the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams that have really yet to define themselves, but things look OK for both as of  now.  As stated earlier, Cincinnati lost to Seattle, but outgained them by 200+ yards.  San Francisco won last week, but it was over an underwhelming Tampa Bay squad.  The west coast travelling east rule also applies, so I will take the Bengals.

Detroit Lions +2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are coming off an overtime game last week, and were both underwhelming.  The Chargers pulled out a victory over Indianapolis Colts, while the Lions ended last week tied with the Arizona Cardinals.  Extra game time, plus the west travelling east, plus a road favorite gives me all the reason I need to select the Lions.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Selecting Green Bay after their defeat over the Chicago Bears last week would be the highest of overreactions, I think.  Green Bay actually did not look good in that win offensively, and Dalvin Cook is way more explosive than any single Chicago Bear.  I will take points in a divisional rivalry.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 8 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Texans looked absolutely great in last week's loss to New Orleans Saints, falling just to a last minute drive by Drew Brees (go figure).  And yes, the Jaguars are playing a rookie quarterback, but Gardner Minshew II looked good last week, and if this Jaguars defense plays the way they are supposed to play, this game could be a touchdown difference.

New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins
Honestly, this spread is absolutely ridiculous, and taking a road double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game is preposterous and the height of overreacting to last week's Patriot win and Dolphins loss.  This spread is so ridiculous I am going to take it.

New York Giants +2 v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was underwhelming in its 17-16 defeat over the New York Jets while the Giants were soundly defeated by the Cowboys last week.  I feel the Bills will have a difficult time corralling Saquon Barkley (who doesn't).  The fact that the Giants are getting points at home means I will take them.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers lost and looked bad.  The Seahawks won, but looked worse.  Pacific team travelling east and playing the early game means I take the Steelers and hope their offense shows some life this week.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
This game is essentially a pick 'em among teams that surprised last week.  We are not sure if last week was an anomaly for one or both of the teams, but this is one way to find out. I will take the home team.

Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
This game is incredibly important for both teams if they have their minds set on making the playoffs.  Only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 have qualified for the playoffs, and both teams enter this game after week 1 losses.  I will take the points at home, and hope that if my beloved Bears do win and I lose this bet, I can still be happy.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
So the Raiders absolutely surprised everybody last week defeating the Broncos.  But, Pat Mahomes is not Joe Flacco.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I love that the Saints are getting points here.  The Rams haven't quite looked the same in about 4 or 5 games (dating back to last year).

Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia has won 4 in a row against the Falcons. Given that the spread is so low, I will take the better team on a hot streak.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to watch this game.  On paper, the Browns should beat the Jets, and that was before Sam Darnold contracted mononucleosis.  Trevor Siemian does have an over-.500 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so it isn't like he is being randomly thrust into a game.  Cleveland looked awful last week. I don't expect them to look that bad, or commit 18 penalties, but I am not sure they are ready to be a touchdown favorite either.

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Picking a road favorite of any kind is against everything I believe in, but, this line is the one I like the most, so I have to take it given the shellacking I took last week.

Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  4-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($770)

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Professional Football Weekly Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  For the first time this season (thanks Irma) I watched a lot of football, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

New Orleans Saints 30 v. Houston Texans 28 - A two play 75 yard drive by the Texans to take the lead, only to be outdone by a picture-perfect final last second drive by Drew Brees (who was 3-5 on the drive; the 2 incompletions being spikes to stop the clock), culminating in a career-best 58-yard field goal by Will Lutz.  Two amazing quarterbacks showing their wares the entire game along with big plays by many on both sides.  GREAT game.

Best Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens - They dominated the Miami Dolphins so thoroughly that this game was over with 6:50 remaining in the first half, and that was before the Ravens scored again to take a 42-10 lead into halftime.  Just a dominating performance, scoring a franchise-record 59 points.  The defense performed too, only giving up 10 points, while sacking the Dolphins' quarterbacks 3 times, and intercepting them twice.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Cleveland Browns - Obviously Miami was the worst performance, but it is too easy to pick them here (as I am sure I will have multiple opportunities to do so in the future).  Cleveland came into this season with all the hype of their offseason acquisitions (more than just Odell Beckham, Jr.), and they absolutely laid an egg in their 43-13 throbbing by the Tennessee Titans, and team that was supposed to be in decline this year.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Lamar Jackson, QB - Baltimore Ravens.  The run-first quarterback ended up the game with the sixth-highest rushing yards on his own team, even being out-gained on the ground by Robert Griffith, III 9-6.  What Jackson did do was throw the ball; 17-20 for 324 and 5 TDs (with no interceptions).  It was just the Dolphins, but he looked like he has evolved from just a run-only quarterback.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Roy Robertson-Harris DT/DE, Chicago Bears - His stats don't jump completely off the page (1 sack, 2 tackles for loss, 3 total tackles), but as a interior defensive lineman, he controlled this game as the Bears held the Packers to a total of 47 yards rushing. And, it wasn't that Aaron Rodgers dominated, throwing for only 203 yards.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Will Lutz, K - New Orleans Saints.  After narrowly missing a 56-yard field goal as time expired in the first half, Lutz stepped up and calmly hit a career long 58-yarder to win the game as time expired in the second half.  Teammates said they knew it was good after hearing the thunderous explosion of Lutz's foot hitting the ball, as it just sounded like a solid kick with distance.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

The Premier League was off this weekend for national team duty.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

The Premier League was off this weekend for national team duty.

Goat of the Week

Antonio Brown, WR - Oakland Raiders/New England Patriots/Who Knows?  I am not going to recount all of his shenanigans that led to his release by the Oakland Raiders and the signing by the New England Patriots, but in a week in which he lost $20 something million, and could not play, the Patriots trouncing of the Steelers 33-3 showed that the Patriots don't NEED Brown, and the Raiders 24-16 defeat of the Denver Broncos shows that they don't need him either.  And this was all before the federal lawsuit filed against him alleging sexual battery, rape, invasion of privacy and false imprisonment.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)
The Premier League was off this weekend for national team duty.

Hit of the Week

Myles Jack, LB - Jacksonville Jaguars.  His punch at Sammy Watkins led to him being thrown out of the game.  

Breakthrough Performance

Josh Jacobs, RB - Oakland Raiders - Perhaps the Raiders don't need Antonio Brown because they have a running game. Jacobs, the rookie first round pick out of Alabama, gained 85 yards rushing with 2 TDs, and added 28 yards receiving.  He is the first running back with 100 total yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs in his first game since LaDanian Tomlinson.  Honorable Mention to Marquise Brown and T.J. Hockenson.

Finally

Mark Ingram, II, RB - Baltimore Ravens - Now Ingram has had much success in the NFl, but he has finally settled into a starting, power-back role that suits his skills.  Even with Lamar Jackson throwing the ball all over the field, Ingram made the most of his 14 carries, gaining 107 yards and scoring 2 TDs.

Impact Injury

Tyreek HIll, WR, Kansas City Chiefs.  Hill, the speedster that opens up everything else for the Chiefs offense, is out for 4 to 6 weeks with a shoulder injury sustained against the Jacksonville Jaguars.  At least the Chiefs have Travis Kelce as a primary receiving target and Sammy Watkins to play out wide.  In that same game, Jaguars quarterback Nick Foles broke his clavicle and is out indefinitely, but at least 8 weeks.  Gardner Minshew III, a rookie out of Washington State, replaced Foles and went 22-25 for 275 yards and 2 TDs, with 1 interception, in the Jaguars 40-26 loss to the Chiefs. 

Team Rising

Tennessee Titans - Obliterated the Browns, who were supposed to be this year's darlings.  They are not among the best teams, but they are rising.

Team Falling

Chicago Bears - Yes, a 10-3 loss to the Packers is not terrible, as the Packers are a really good team.  The problem is how they looked on offense, which was borderline horrid.  And, they travel to Denver for week 2.  This could get ugly, fast.

Best Teams
(All undefeated teams will be ranked ahead of all others until all teams have at least 1 loss, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think is best, regardless of record.)

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New England Patriots
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Los Angeles Chargers

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Miami Dolphins
31. Cleveland Browns
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
29. Atlanta Falcons
28. New York Giants

Middle Teams

15. Buffalo Bills
16. Detroit Lions
17. Arizona Cardinals
18. Houston Texans*

*  Please note, I think the Texans are much better than this, but my criteria is, at least until several games in and the undefeateds and winless have sorted themselves out, to make my ranking based upon record first.  In this case, the Texans are the best team that lost this week.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

5.  Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders - Obviously Kansas City will be the overwhelming favorite.  But, if the Raiders can keep it close, squeak one out, or even look good at home this week, their entire season changes.

4. Chicago Bears v. Denver Broncos - Both playoff contenders were upset (although the Bears defeat at the hands of the Packers can hardly be called an "upset") in week one, meaning the loser starts off in a hole of 0-2.  Very important game for both teams.

3.  Tottenham v. Crystal Palace - The Spurs host surprising 4th place Crystal Palace in a battle that should see Tottenham vault closer into the Top 4.  A Crystal Palace win or draw in London could go a long way in showing us they might be for real.

2. Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers - The two 1-0 squads in the NFC North meet in week 2, with the Packers having the opportunity to not only start 2-0, but to start 2-0 in the division.  Dalvin Cook looks to be a more dangerous running game than the Bears showed last week against Green Bay, so we can see exactly how much the Packers focus actually improved their defense in the offseason.

1. New Orleans Saints v. Los Angeles Rams - Easily the best game of week 2, the NFC Championship rematch should be exciting as both teams come into the matchup off a win, New Orleans looked much better than the Rams, but have to travel to LA for this one.  If you are a football fan, this is the game to watch.

Trivia

Since we are beginning a new season, a multi-part trivia question.  Tom Brady begins his 20th season with the New England Patriots.  How many players have played at least 20 years with only one team throughout their careers, and out of those players, who has played the most years (and with which team)?

Sports Bar Review of the Week
(Hint:  Ratings based upon a week-to-week analysis of QB Play, not their career, so the scale varies from week-to-week.)

Duffys' Sports Grill
225 Clematis Street
West Palm Beach, FL
561/249-1682

Duffy's is a large, local chain, having actually started in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, and have grown to 34 locations statewide, from Lake Mary in the north, to Kendall in the south, to Tampa and Sarasota in the west.  It is what you expect a sports bar to be when you arrive, and has a fairly typical sports bar menu, although that menu has expanded and changed over the years.

As far as game watching, their are a ton of televisions in this location (enough so that all games are running simultaneously), although you can really on focus on 2 or 3 depending upon where you are sitting.  The televisions are pre-labeled with min-pennants of the teams that will be showing on each tv, so that you can plan where to sit.  Duffy's is the official sports bar of the Miami Dolphins, so you can expect that the sound will be on the Dolphins game so long as they are playing.  This was to all of our detriment, but that is the fault of the Dolphins, not Duffy's.  This location did eliminated about 4 or 5 bar hi-top tables to put in kids carnival and video games (claw anyone?), but we were told by the new General Manager (who is very nice), that she was going to eliminate most of those (probably keeping Golden Tee).  This will allow for more tables, and thus more people and better football watching atmosphere.  Even without the extra tables, the place was full, but not crowded - unlike usual.  Several factors could play into this:  (1) the Dolphins were home (only 1 hour down the street); (2) the Patriots were the night game (they are usually a bid draw); and (3) lots and lots of construction on the streets surrounding Duffy's.  In any event, I have been in this Duffy's with a lot more action going on.  Nevertheless, good for football watching, for your team or your fantasy team.  Parking can be a problem, but I ubered
Atmosphere Rating:  Philip Rivers

Having eaten at Duffy's many, many times before, I did not have to sample much of the food to know what I was getting.  Neverheless, we did have buffalo wings - hot (traditional sports bar food), and the sesame-encrusted ahi tuna with soba noodles (non-tradiional sports bar food).  The wings are good, but the hot is not super-hot.  So, if you do look hot wings, order the Florida Heat Wave or Atomic Ghost Chili.  I generally prefer the Spicy Roasted Garlic (delicious), but others in my group wanted to traditional hot.  As far as the ahi - it is nowhere close to as great as you will get at a seafood restaurant or sushi joint, but it is AMAZING for a sports bar.  The sauce on the soba noodles is delicious, and the cucumber salad is fantastic as a small side.  Although not in this trip, I can recommend the burgers, among other items, as well.
Food Rating:  Carson Wentz

As far as drinks, Duffy's has a full bar.  As we were settled in for a long day of watching football, we were not out to get drunk, but with a small variety of beer choices (normal and craft), a full array of liquor choices, but a limited wine menu, Duffy's is exactly what you would expect from a sports bar.  The 2-4-1 specials make it well worth the trip.
Drink Rating:  Matthew Stafford

The server was new to me, and although it took him a bit to warm up to our boisterousness and humor, he was timely with his service and always available.  To me, this is GREAT.  He even put up with all of our separate tabs, which at least we warned him about ahead of time.
Service Rating:  Dak Prescott

As Duffy's is a general service restaurant/bar, and not a specialty bar, it's menus cater to the general public, and have a little bit of everything, and not a ton of variety in some things.  This pleases most people, but won't everybody.  That being said, we got exactly what we came for and expected.  A very good day of watching football at a very good place.  We will be back.
Overall Rating:  DeShaun Watson
Trivia Answer

None this week.  Tune in next week.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

The Ole College Try

So the college football season is in full swing, with three weeks of games down, even though we just finished Week 2.  It must be that new math.  Here is the recap of the season to date, with an emphasis on last week's games.  For those that don't remember, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race all season at the expense of everything else.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Jalen Hurts -Oklahoma - Led the Sooners to 119 points in 2 games, albeit one was against a traditional patsy, still the other was against Houston, which is not a slouch.  He has thrown for 591 yards and rushed for 237.  Could be the third consecutive Oklahoma quarterback to win the Heisman after transferring from another school.

Rising - Joe Burrow - LSU - The winner of the SEC Offensive Player of the Year for each of the first two weeks has thrown for 749 yards in his two games this year, including 471 against then 9th ranked Texas. He also has 9 touchdowns against only 1 interception so far this year.

Sleeper - Elijah Sindelar - Purdue - He has already thrown for 932 yards and 9 touchdowns in his two games.  A concussion may keep him out of next week's matchup, though.

Falling - Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - He has not exactly lit it up at QB in Clemson's two wins.  Team success, and the inevitable 300 yards in a very big game.  He does already have a Heisman moment on his resume this year, with the touchdown saving tackle after he threw an interception which resulted in zero points for the opposition.

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Jonathan Taylor - Wisconsin - He has only gained 237 yards, but has 5 touchdowns.  His low yard total (by Heisman standards) is largely due to his teams blowout wins over South Florida and Central Michigan, so he has sat for large portions of the game.  Easily the best running back in college, and he has legitimate track speed coming out of the backfield.  Wisconsin's upcoming game against Michigan (9/21) will be telling for Taylor, and the entire Badger team.

Rising - Travis Etienne - Clemson - The only running back in Taylor's class, Etienne has 258 yards and 3 touchdowns in Clemson's two victories.  He should tear up the ACC.

Falling - Cam Akers - Florida State - How can the fourth leading rusher in the NCAA be falling?  Easily, his team, the Florida State Seminoles were beat at home by Boise State and then barely survived a botched extra point to beat the University of Louisiana-Monroe 45-44 in overtime.

Sleeper - Kylin Hill - Mississippi State - The Bulldog running back in second in the NCAA in rushing having amassed 320 yards on the ground. If he can keep this up through SEC play, he could be a contender.  (My hint, he won't).

Wide Receiver Edition

Favorite - Rondale Moore - Purdue - The do-everything All-American candidate has 344 yards receiving on 24 catches already for the surprising Boilermakers.  He will have to come up big for freshman Jack Plummer if Elijah Sindelar is declared out with a concussion this week.

Rising - Tylan Wallace - Oregon State - Only 10 catches, but for 272 yards.  This bodes well since he plays in the Big 12, and will likely be able to have many more big plays due to the lack of defense in the conference.

Falling - DeVonta Smith - Alabama - He has literally done nothing wrong, except for lining up next to Jerry Jeudy.

Sleeper - Omar Bayless - Arkansas State - He has 16 catches for 271 yards (6th and 3rd respectively in the NCAA), but already has 5 touchdowns!  At Arkansas State, he is the ultimate sleeper.

Defensive Edition

5.  Jace Whittaker - CB - Illinois - His 3 interceptions lead the NCAA.

4.  Keandre Jones - LB - Maryland - 4 sacks, 12 tackles and a forced fumble.  Plus, I have to give some love to somebody from Maryland.

3.  Oluwole Betiku, Jr. - DE - Illinois - Leads the NCAA with 5 sacks, but also has 10 total tackles and a fumble recovery.  Only bright spot on this Illini squad.

2.  Ethan Aguayo - LB - San Jose State - He leads the NCAA with 34 total tackles in just two games.

1.  Kenny Willekes - DE - Michigan State - Four sacks, and 12 total tackles, along with 2 fumble recoveries and a TD.  Pretty impressive start to the season for this All-American candidate..

Player(s) to Watch

Jabari Zuniga - DL - Florida - Has the talent and ability, and he plays with the requisite abandon to control every game he plays in from the line of scrimmage.

My New Favorite Player

Steven Montez - QB - Colorado - Montez was 28-41 for 375 and 2 TDs in the comeback win over Nebraska. More importantly, Montez lays claim to the best Hispanic quarterback over Nebraska's Adian Martinez.

Players of the Week (Just Week 2)

5.  JK Dobbins - RB - Ohio State - He gained 141 yards on only 17 carries with 2 TDs in Ohio State's 42-0 drubbing of Cincinnati.

4.  Ryan Hilinski - QB - South Carolina - The freshman, starting in game 2 only because of an injury to starter Jake Bentley, played in his first game after brother Tyler - who played at Washington State - committed suicide in what was later attributed to CTE.  Hilinski finished 24-30 for 282 yards and 2 TDs passing, and added a rushing TD.  He would ordinarily be listed higher except the Gamecocks only played Charleston Southern, defeating them 72-10.

3. Rondale Moore - WR - Purdue - Moore hauled in 13 passes for 220 yards and 1 TD as Purdue defeated Vanderbilt 42-24.

2.  Elijah Sindelar - QB - Purdue - Sindelar was 34-52 for 509 yards and 5 TDs. Most week's he would be first, but ...

1. Joe Burrow - QB - LSU - Burrow finished 31-39 for 471 yards and 4 TDs in LSU's 45-38 victory over Texas.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Secondary - CBs/Ss - Miami - Gave up a successful pass to North Carolina on a 4th and 17 that would have iced the game for Miami, but instead continued the drive for the Tar Heels. Then, they give up the game winning TD pass to conclude the drive.  Miami did have a chance to win it at the buzzer, but Bubba Baxha missed a 50-yard field goal attempt.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Willie Taggert - Florida State - Just one week after admitting his team was dehydrated and not in shape after a come-from-ahead loss to Boise State, the Seminoles once again gave up a late lead, only to beat Louisiana-Monroe 45-44 in overtime.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

Alabama (1) v. Ohio State (4)/ (2) Clemson v. (3) Oklahoma

Again, still way too early to tell as tons of teams are still alive.  LSU is looking especially intersting.

Final Unbeatens

Too many to list right now.

Rant(s) of the Week

ESPN, take the yellow coloring off the down and distance display at the bottom of the screen (at least on ESPNU).  It looks like a penalty flag is being thrown on every single play.

Under Performance of the Week

Tennessee.  Starts off 0-2 after a surprise opening-game loss to Georgia State, falling 38-30 at home (and paying Georgia State $950,000.00).  The Volunteers continued their season with a 29-26 loss to Brigham Young, also at home.  But, they have a good story with the t-shirts! No truth (yet) to the rumor that Smokey has entered the transfer portal.

Last Entry's Trivia Answer (from two seasons ago)

As a reminder, the question was:

Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has set the school record for touchdown passes with his 88th TD in last week's game.  Whose record did he break?

The answer is Chris Redman, who interestingly also played in the NFL for the Baltimore Ravens.

Trivia Question of the Week

We will start off easy:  There are five active NCAA head coaches that have won NCAA titles as head coaches.  Name them.

Match up(s) to Watch

5. Chattanooga v. Tennessee - Just to see if Tennessee can start off with 3 upset home losses.

4.  Ohio State v. Indiana - Both teams enter their Big Ten debut 2-0.  Can Indiana provide an early-season upset at home?

3. Stanford v. UCF - It isn't UF, FSU or Miami, but UCF gets a big school to come play in Orlando.  Stanford coming off a big loss to USC last week.  Will that make them down, or more hungry?

2.  Arizona State v. Michigan State - Not your ordinary Pac-12/Big 10 matchup, but both teams are undefeated and Herm Edwards always "plays to win the game".

1.  Florida v. Kentucky - Everybody agrees that UF is not as good as its ranking, while everyone also agrees that Kentucky is much better than its non-ranking.  Can Mark Stoops work a little home-magic?

Sunday, September 8, 2019

Picks of the Week



HOORAY! The NFL is officially back with its first full slate of games, and nobody is happier than I am.  Since I watched absolutely zero of the pre-season, other than all the news reports of the Antonio Brown drama, I feel that I am in a perfect position to start the season with a bang.  Whether that is good or bad, who knows.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Chicago Bears
This happened Thursday, but I told my friends my pick before game time. Aaron Rodgers just has the bears number.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
West coast teams travelling west rarely cover the spread when they play the early games.  Add to that, it is also hard to cover as a road favorite.  I imagine that most people I know will take the Rams here, but I will take the points.

Cleveland Browns -5 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
This pick is not about me coronating the Browns too early after "winning the offseason".  This is more about me thinking that Tennessee is going to be really bad this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville should still have a great defense, and although Kansas City's offense seemed to be unstoppable last year, can a team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback at least keep possession long enough with Leonard Fournette to keep this game close?  I say yes.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Don't get me wrong, the Dolphins are going to be horrible this year. But, without seeing how Baltimore is going to play, I don't like them favored by 7 on the road.  Especially when Fitzpatrick can throw a 43 yard touchdown pass with 41 seconds left to back-door cover.

Atlanta Falcons +4 at Minnesota Vikings
I have to pick some road teams, right?  I have no idea where either of these teams are going to end up.  I feel like they could both either wind up in the playoffs, or both disappoint terribly.  So, give me the points.

New York Jets -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Le'Veon Bell should be fresh right.

Washington Racitsts +10 at Philadelphia Eagles
Over the season, the Eagles should easily out-distance the Racists.  That being said, ten points is a lot of points in an intra-divisional game.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
Which team went through the most turmoil during the preseason?  I am going to say the Colts, and pick the Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Count the Bengals be looking for Tagavailoa to replace Andy Dalton?

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
There has to be one game where I go against the rules and take a visiting favorite, right?

New York Giants +7 at Dallas Cowboys
Saquon Barkley controls the ball to help keep this close.  Every Cowboys fan is hoping Zeke is ready to play.  Is he?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. San Francisco 49ers
I have no idea why I think this.

New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has never won in Foxboro.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. Houston Texans
New Orleans seems to thrive on big prime time games.  Can J.J. Watt be as effective without Jadeveon Clowney on the other side?

Denver Broncos -2 at Oakland Raiders 
Another road favorite, in an intradivisional game.  I don't like it, but I also don't like this Raiders squad.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has never won in Foxboro.  I chalk this pick up to Belichick and Brady, more than anything else, but also a healthy helping of Sony Michel.

Last Week's Record: 0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Are You Ready For Some Football?!!!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  And this time, WE START A WEEK EARLY!  Yes, a week 0 matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators live from the football mecca that is - Camping World Stadium?  Well, I should be there with tons of my peeps, but not going to be able to make it this year.  Still will not put a damper on the start of my season.  What would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans. As usual, there will be more than 11 on each side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - TREVOR LAWRENCE, Clemson; Tua Tagavailoa, Alabama; Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma - This is mostly easy when the two of the three best quarterbacks from last year return to college.  Hurts makes it as the last two Heisman Trophy winners have been Oklahoma quarterbacks that transferred from elsewhere, plus, he has won a title already.  The highest rated pro-quarterback, Justin Herbert, doesn't make the cut.

RB - JONATHAN TAYLOR, Wisconsin; D'ANDRE SWIFT, Georgia; Travis Etienne, Clemson; A.J. Dillon, Boston College; Zack Moss, Utah - Taylor - with Lawrence - might be the Heisman favorite heading into the season.  It is Swift's turn to run behind the behemoths at Georgia.  Most pundits have Etienne as first team.  If you have not seen Dillon or Moss run - DO IT.

WR - JERRY JEUDY, Alabama; LAVISKA SHENAULT, JR., Colorado; Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma StateAlabama; Justyn Ross, Clemson; CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma - Jeudy is the reigning Biletnikoff award winner, and Shenault is right there with him in terms of talent.  So much speed at this position.  So much speed.

TE - ALBERT OGWUEGBUNAM, Missouri; Jared Pickney, Vanderbilt - These two will prove invaluable to their respective quarterbacks in the defensive-speed-laden SEC. 

OL - ANDREW THOMSAS, Georgia (T); WALKER LITTLE, Stanford (T); SHANE LEMIUEX, Oregon (G);  SOLOMON KINDLEY, Georgia (G); TYLER BIADASZ, Wisconson; Mekhi Becton, Louisville (T); Ben Bredesen, Michigan (G): Nick Harris, Washington (C) - Two Georgia stalwarts start for this line which is sure to open huge holes for the running backs as well as keep the QBs protected.  Thomas might be the best player in college football.

Defense

DE - A.J. EPENESA, Iowa; CHASE YOUNG, Ohio State; Raekwon Davis, Alabama; Jonathan Garvin, Miami - Both starters had 10 1/2 sacks last year. The Chef returns after recording 24 solo tackles from the defensive line last year, and Garvin is poised for a monster breakout season - I predict double digit sacks.

DT - DERRICK BROWN, Auburn; KENNY WILLEKES, Michigan State; Leki Fotu, Utah - Brown can be as dominant as his position as anyone can be at theirs in college.  Fotu is 6'5 335 lbs, and is immovable.

LB - DYLAN MOSES, Alabama; PADDY FISHER, Northwestern; ISAIAH SIMMONS, Clemson; K'Lavon Chiasson, LSU; Shaquille Quarterman, Miami - This quintet will likely total about 14,000 tackles this year.

CB - C.J. Henderson, Florida; BRYCE HALL, Virginia; Andre Cisco, Syracuse - With the injuries at the other corner in Florida, Henderson may not even be tested all year.  Cisco finished last season with 10 interceptions, including 3 in the last 4 games.  Hall can cover AND tackle.

S - GRANT DELPIT, Louisiana State; XAVIER MCKINNEY, Alabama; Alohi Gilman, Notre Dame - Delpit continues LSU's run DBU (despite UF's protestations)  McKinney steps into a long-list of talented Alabama safeties.

Special Teams

K - ANDRE SZMYT, Syracuse; Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia - Szmyt, despite needing to buy a vowel, is the reigning Groza award winner, and could become only the second two time winner behind Sebastian Janikowski.  Blankenship is added because he is good, and looks funny kicking in the glasses.

P - BRADEN MANN, Texas A & M - The returning Ray Guy award winner is the best punter in the country.

RETURNER - ISAIAH WRIGHT, Temple; Rondale Moore, Purdue - Wright returned 5 kicks for touchdowns in his career.  Moore can do everything, as highlighted by his 252 total yards in Purdue's upset of Ohio State last year.

Final Four Chronicles - The Departure

April 9, 2019

So we got an overtime final championship, which is exciting to watch.  Virginia earned their victory this year after the debacle that was University of Maryland-Baltimore County last year.  Not sure what makes up for the Chaminade loss.

Nowhere near as many entries today, as we were travelling home, so we might just make some observations on the Final Four in Minneapolis overall at the completion.

04:30 - Dr. Pepper enters Uber; driver setting his mood by bumping On to the Next One by Jay-Z featuring Swizz Beatz.

By 8:30 - Everyone else is up.  Realizes Dr. Pepper is gone.

Pre-10:00 - Leave the AirBnB as the maid was set to arrive at 10:00.

10:13 - Dr. Pepper is wheels down in Logan (11:13 EDT).

10:17 - Pepster, Sinickal and Tony arrive at Hell's Kitchen.  We ask if they have a spot to place our luggage.  Lo and behold, behind the counter is already other people's luggage.  Apparently this has happened before.

10:45 - Our appetizer plate of sausage arrives.  It is maple bison sausage, so it is unique.  Food runner says that looks like the best appetizer plate ever.

10:59 - Breakfast entrees of Huevos Rancheros with Bison Sausage (for Sinickal and Tony - it's the house favorite) and Bison Benedict (for Pepster).  Breakfast is amazing.  Sinickal and Tony note that there will be breakfasts here when they come back for a conference in a few months.

11:55 - As we carry our luggage up the stairs and out of Hell's Kitchen, Tony says out loud, they should have an elevator.  Hostess hears him, points him to the other end of the restaurant.  He takes the elevator.

11:58 - Since the weather was reasonable, this is our first time in the Skyway this trip.

12:03 - Store our luggage at the Marriott.

12:17 - Enter the Target Center

12:23 - A really good view of Target Field and the plaza entering the baseball field.

12:26 - Kieran's Irish Pub.  We are mostly quiet as we are catching up on the news from the past few days.  Some work-related conversations.

13:45 - Walk back to the Marriott to procure our luggage.

14:00 - Uber to airport.  Pepster's flight is at 15:55 and Sinickal and Tony's are both after 17:00.  We need to recalibrate and catch up on some work for tomorrow.

22:24 - Tony's weekend officially ends as he arrives home.

23:12 - Pepster's enters the fast train from Fort Lauderdale to West Palm Beach.  It is packed.  Oh, everyone is wearing Dwyane Wade Miami Heat jerseys.  Everyone going home from that game.

00:12 - Pepster arrives home.

Our general observations from the weekend.

1.  The weather was very reasonable.  A bit dreary, a bit chilly, but nothing outrageous.  Could have been A LOT worse.  The lakes were still frozen, piles of snow still in some parks and backyards, and a record setting spring storm to come through on Wednesday, April 10.  This could have been abysmal weather-wise.

2.  Had some issues with Uber/Lyft.  Nothing awful - still easy to summons, reasonable prices (except immediately after the games), but they always seemed to be slow and different drivers always took varying routes, even to the same locations.  More weird than bad - but certainly not optimal.

3.  Food is ridiculous.  Nothing stays open late - even on weekends.  With a big event in town that ends late (after 11 or 12 on Saturday and Monday), you would think it would be easier to find food places that were open.  Even diners were difficult to find, well, actually non-existent.

4.  Lots of establishments seemed to be under staffed.  A very similar problem as Houston had in 2016, but nowhere near as awful.  Houston not only was understaffed but also kept running out of food and closing earlier than the posted times for the establishment.  Minneapolis being understaffed just made things a bit slow, like the ride share.

5.  Our area of town was a very nice, pretty neighborhood.  Kudos to the owner of the house for placing this gem on AirBnB.  It was spacious, fairly close, and very safe.  No "Drive-By" room this year.

6.  The NCAA did a great job with security at this final four with getting people into the stadium.  No real bottlenecks, and we had no problems with ingress and egress at all.  Straight through the magnetometers and into the stadium both nights.  It was a breeze.

7.  On to Atlanta, which although not as good a "Final 4" city, since all of the events will be too spread out, it is still a tremendously fun city where we all have our contacts!


Final Four Chronicles - The Finals

April 8

We all awake and do work - it is Monday after all.  Plus, the finals do not start until 20:20 local time, thus we will still have all day to enjoy the festivities.

13:12 - Uber downton.  Country music blaring from the Uber.  Definitely not what we expected from this driver.

13:16 - We notice that this  Uber driver is driving us through every neighborhood in town.  Sinickal looks at the map on the driver's telephone and says, "Yeah, this is the route the other Uber driver says was useless.

13:29 - :Land at the Host Bar - Runyon's.  Order lunch.

13:55 - Wings are delivered and Dr. Pepper notes, "Properly sauced".  Tony looks at him and says, "You or the wings?"

14:29 - After hearing glass break for the second time of the day, we remark that this has happened every time we have been at Runyon's.  We ask our waitress if "Things just jump off ledges and shit".  Waitress responds that "We don't like cleaning dishes!"

14:37 - Also remarking about the improper staffing levels at most of the establishments around town, Sinickal asks our waitress if the owner can read a calendar.  She remarks after noting they had the same problem during the Super Bowl, "I don't know if he can."

15:20 - We pay the tab as we are finishing our drinks, and Sally the redhead waitress at Runyon's comes in to start her shift.  You may recall Sally as the waitress that refers to us as her bodyguards because we kept clearing the aisle for her to maneuver on Saturday, comes up to us, says hello, and asks, "What, no Jameson's today?"

15:23 - First round of Jameson's.

15:58 - Leave Runyon's to head to Nicollet Mall.  Nicollet Mall is not a shopping mall, but rather a boulevard that has been shut down for the tournament.  It houses ESPN and CBS Sports, concerts and all types of games, etc.  The establishments along the boulevard love this, I am sure as they have all been packed.

16:23 - While walking along Nicollet Mall, Sinickal wonders if Texas Tech wins tonight, then Lubbock might turn into a shit show.  Tony and Dr. Pepper state simultaneously, "It already is!"

16:27 - Texas Tech cheerleader parade, excuse the pom team.  "Guns Up!"

16:40 - Pop into 8th Street Grill.  Get into a discussion with the security guy as we sit on the porch, asking about possible late night locations to eat after the game.  He explains to us all of the issues with Minneapolis regarding staffing and food, as well as the differences between Super Bowl week and this weekend.  We find out he is a former cop.  Without knowing anything about him personally or why he is no longer a cop, we conclude based upon our interaction and conversation with him that he is exactly the type of person who we - as a public - still needs to be in law enforcement.

17:23 - First time the sun has been out all day.  We are all remiss that we did not bring our sunglasses.  Nah - won't need them in about 5 more minutes.

17:26 - Pop into Brit's Pub.  Apparently patterned pants are in.

17:45 - Christian, Pepster's friend from North Palm Beach arrives with his boys for a drop in.  Christian and his peeps are UVA alumni, so they head over to the free UVA party.  We don't blame them.

18:35 - Alan - Tony and Dr. Pepper's friend from Providence whose birthday dinner was last night - joins us.

18:44 - See the news report about Nike possibly paying Zion's mom.  Pepster remarks that it is a shame, "He might have to go pro now!"

19:37 - Table next to us - obviously sisters - starts comparing pictures of dogs with us.  We note that one picture of both her dogs standing facing away from the camera.  The other sister responds, "She likes ass!"

19:38 - After celebratory Jameson's with Alan, Dr. Pepper yells, "We ain't going to the game!"

19:43 - Brit's manager while changing the televisions to CBS asks if we were watching the current channel (we weren't).  Tony asks, "Do you have Skinemax?"  Sinickal remarks, "He said that out loud!"

19:44 - CBS is showing a repeat of the Katy Perry concert from the night before.  Alan asks if that "Is Ivan Drago's wife?"

20:05 - Head to the stadium.

20:20 - Dr. Pepper, Tony and Alan and talking about an old acquaintance from Providence, Dr. Pepper tells us "That is the smallest racist in the state!"

20:31 - Hit our "seats", which we have once again just chosen a railing on the concourse as it is lower than our seats, has good sight-line, and is closer to the rest room and concessions.  Mostly the same people around us as on Saturday.  We are a bit late.  Score is 3-2.

20:34 - The University of Virginia student section is a bit less than half filled.  Sinickal remarks, their must be tests on campus.

20:35 - Mostly radio silence during the game.

22:30 - Free basketball.  Overtime!

22:47 - University of Virginia wins.  Note from twitter, "Finally a Cavaliers championship that did not involve Draymond Green being suspended!"  Twitter is awesome.

22:50 - Head down for a better view of the championship trophy presentations and the cutting down of the net.  Who are we kidding, a better spot for One Shining Moment!

22:52 - Alan takes leave.  Before One Shining Moment - ridiculous!

23:14 - Sinickal is worried that Syracuse will not have a presence in One Shining Moment!

23:17  - ONE SHINING MOMENT!!!  [Ed. Note - The Syracuse Orange was in the opening montage].

23:22 - Sinickal notes that everything is better with Luther.  Pepster concurs - but especially with Big Luther.  Not Little Luther, Big Luther.

23:23 - Leave the stadium.  We need to find somewhere to wait for the ride share prices to fall.

23:39 - Enter the AC Marriott bar.  We can do the above, and they have clean facilities.  Perfect.

23:55 - We say goodbye to Dr. Pepper.  He has an early flight in the morning so that he can make the home opener/championship presentation for the Red Sox.  The rest of us will not be waking up to see him off.

00:05 - Pop into Runyon's to led the ride share surge pricing dissipate further.  For the first time we sit at a bar and not a table.  Sally tells the bartender, these are my Jameson's guys.  Not tonight we aren't.

00:10 - We are informed the kitchen is closed, which we knew based upon the fact that we are in Minneapolis.  We get into a discussion of things, and we find out the kitchen and bar closed early Saturday evening because somebody threw a chair through one of the front glass windows.  Glad we weren't there for that one.

00:46 - Uber home.  No use galavanting around to find a last meal in this town.  Even the 24 hour diners are not 24 hours Sunday through Thursday.  There will always be breakfast tomorrow.

Time Unknown - Arrive back at the house.