Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 10

 

This isn't even fair at this point.  I mean, c'mon, JACOBY BRISSETT?  Really?!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin)

Although the Falcons struggle against the rush (here you go Jonathan Taylor fans), they are overall pretty stout (3rd overall), so I will take the points in this one in what should be a close game.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. New York Giants

None of us actually believe this, but the Bears offense is carrying this team.  They are 2nd in rushing offense, 4th in total offense, 6th in scoring offense, and 10th in passing offense.  And this Giants defense is barely better than Cincinnati's, and their offense is way worse.

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

I really don't know what to think about this game.  All I can honestly say is that I feel that Minnesota might suffer a letdown after last week's emotion victory over their divisional rivals - the Detroit Lions and Baltimore needs to put together a win streak to make the playoffs.  

New England Patriots +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically, New England scores more points than Tampa Bay, and they give up less points than Tampa Bay does.  And, since they are the road team here, they are getting points.  I'll take 'em.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, I know CJ Stroud is out, but to be honest, he wasn't having that great of a year anyway, as the team is 19th in passing offense and 17th overall.  This pick is about taking the points at home in an intra divisional game, and Houston's defense (1st overall and in scoring, 4th against the pass nad 6th against the run).

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets were absolutely decimated by the trade deadline, losing Quinnen Williams (no surprise) and Sauce Gardner (SURPRISE!) from a defense that was already 27th in scoring defense and 16th in total defense.  Cleveland is the beneficiary of those trades.  I am shocked Breece Hall is still there.  If Braelon Allen wasn't hurt, Hall might have been traded too!

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Speaking of surprises, how is Alvin Kamara still on the Saints?  Carolina, behind Offensive Player of the Year candidate Rico Dowdle, is in the playoff hunt!

Miami Dolphins +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is a lot of points for an intra-divisional home team to give up, so I will take them, despite the fact that Buffalo's offense is the best in the league, and Miami's is 27th.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Four reasons here:  (1) The Jacoby Brissett shine won't surprise Seattle like it did Dallas; (2) Seattle is going to want to play with it's new offensive playmaker - Rashid Shaheed - so expect a couple of big plays; (3) Shaheed's speed is going to open up things A LOT for JSN; and (4) short week for Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I absolutely hate this pick, but I just don't like picking road intra-divisional favorites unless I absolutely have to do so.  Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can probably score enough to keep this close, although I expect the Rams to win, maybe 27-24?

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

The Lions are going to be angry after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week and the Commanders are going to be angry that they have to start Marcus Mariota again!

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Although they sit in first place in the AFC North, Pittsburgh's numbers are brutal.  They are 30th in Total Offense AND Total Defense, and on top of that they are last in the league in pass defense, against Justin Herbert's 6th best passing offense.  The Chargers aren't shabby on the defensive side of the ball either, being 6th in Total Defense.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay's defense is stout (5th against the run and 9th against the pass for 5th overall), and Philadelphia still looks like a paper tiger, at least until Saquon Barkley gets back on track.  And, with the way their respective divisions are playing, Green Bay just needs this more.

Byes:  Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Brock Bowers' returns makes the Raiders offense a bit more lethal, but honestly, my big bet selections have been awful this year, so let's just get it out of the way early this week.

Last Week Record: 7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 61-74

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-7

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,895) 

NFL Mid-Season Review

6 

So the NFL has reached its mid-season.  Nine of the eighteen weeks are complete, and each team has played at least 8 games, and some 9, and 8 1/2 games is halfway through the season.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season, with each team's surprise of the year.  The parenthetical at the end of season rankings was that team's position in the quarter-season review. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2) This team was 5-0 during the second quarter of the season (and has won 6 games in a row to push to the top of the division.  Although I fully expect the Bills to end up here at the end of the year, New England is a strong contender for the playoffs,  The big surprise is that this team is 8th in scoring without a significant contribution from Trayveon Henderson, who, although the team's leading rusher with 283 yards, has only 13 more rushing yards than Drake Maye.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) A two-game losing streak - to New England and Atlanta - going into their bye dismantled what looked like an AFC juggernaut.  Their biggest surprise is that this team is middle-of-the-pack in passing offense (14th).  

Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins are 2-7 and sit in third place.  The biggest surprise is that they are not in last.

New York Jets (1-7)

Awful.  The biggest surprise is that they have not started trading veterans (Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams) yet.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Mike Tomlin must be that good of a coach (that we knew), but this is his best job yet.  That is because the surprise is that the Steelers are in first place while being ranked 30th in offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Is this the scariest 3-5 team in NFL history?  injuries hurt, but the biggest surprise is how poor this defense is (27th overall).

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Joe Burrow injury is devastating.  Surprise is that Joe Flacco is making this team exciting.

Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Among the worst teams in the league, even with the second-best defense in the NFL.  That should have accounted for 1 or 2 more wins.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

They have played exceptionally well this year.  And are just a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers away from being 8-1.  Jonathan Taylor's success isn't a surprise, so his candidacy for MVP is understandable, but Daniel Jones being a top candidate?  Wow.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

A 2-2 quarter has flattened out the Jaguars curve, but Jacksonville is currently in playoff position if the season ended today.  The biggest surprise?  A virtually non-existent Brian Thomas, Jr. who has 30 receptions, only 5 more than Parker Washington.

 

Houston Texans (3-5)

Still one of the most disappointing teams in the whole league.  Biggest surprise - Woody Marks.  Not that he is surprising with his play, but the surprise is that the Texans have had to resort to Woody Marks.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Well, the are no longer winless!  The surprise is Chimere Dike, who is developing into a solid wide receiver, and is already one of the best kick returners in the NFL.  He has almost 350 more yards in kickoff returns than the next highest returner, and has the highest per return average as a punt returner.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos went 5-0 in the second quarter, and are solidifying themselves as a Super Bowl candidate.  The surprise, they are doing this with only the 14th-best total offense in the NFL.  If this offense actually gets on track, watch out.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Oh what could've been with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.  The surprise is that they are the second-rated offense without those two bookends!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

The surprise is that they are third in their division!!!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

No surprise that they are bad, the surprise is that they are only giving the ball to Ashton Jeanty 15 times a game.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

At the quarter mark, I noted the statistical fallacy of the Eagles being 4-0; and they went 2-2 the last quarter.   The biggest surprise?  That the Tush Push was ruled forward progress stopped instead of a fumble against the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

This defense is really bad, which limits the ceiling on this team, yet they still are buyers at the deadline acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati.  Surprise!!!

Washington Commanders (3-6)

A little regression from last year was to be expected, but not this much!  The surprise is the second injury to Jayden Daniels!!!  Perhaps let the running backs run?!

New York Giants (2-7)

Not a good team, but not as bad as their record.  The surprise is the excitement for Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo!!!  (Who am I kidding, we knew the over-exaggerated excitement for Skattebo was coming!).

.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Went 3-1 the last quarter, but they haven't looked particularly sharp.  A surprise loss to the Panthers could be the difference between a division title and traveling on wildcard weekend.

Detroit Lions (5-3)

This team can look dominating, or disappointing.  I still think they are the class of the division.  Too much firepower.

Chicago Bears (5-3)

Could the Bears be making a run for the playoffs?  The surprise is that despite a lot of negative press coming from Bears fans, his numbers are virtually identical to those of Baker Mayfield, who some people have as an outside-MVP candidate.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Their defeat of the Detroit Lions brings this division much closer from top-to-bottom.  The biggest surprise is even the Vikings don't know which JJ McCarthy will show up from quarter-to-quarter:  the one that plays essentially like a first-year starter, or the one that comes-from-behind in the fourth quarter.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Tampa Bay is playing very consistently, and is 3-1 in each of the first two quarters.  The big surprise is that Richaad White is the leading rusher, despite not having a rusher with over 300 yards on the season.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The surprise is that Carolina is 5-4!!!

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

The inverse of the Carolina Panthers, the surprise is that Atlanta is only 3-5even with the number 3 ranked defense!

New Orleans Saints (1-8)

The surprise is that Alvin Kamara is still on the Saints.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Playing very well.  This organization knows how to find QBs tossed away by other franchises (first Geno Smith, now Sam Darnold).  Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the entire NFL in receiving yards.  Surprising that it looks smart to have traded DK Metcalf!

Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Might actually be the best team in the division.  Surprising that Matt Stafford is an MVP front-runner!

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

In playoff contention despite running through wide receivers like the Kardashians ... run through wide receivers!

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

Surprised they haven't pulled the plug on the Kyler Murray Experiment yet.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (8)

2.  Denver Broncos (7-2) (14)

3.  New England Patriots (7-2) (16)

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1)

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (5)

6.  Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (9)

7.  Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (7)

8.  Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (2)

9.  Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (12)

10.  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (3)

11.  San Francisco 49ers (6-3) (6)

12.  Detroit Lions (5-3) (4)

13.  Chicago Bears (5-3) (18)

14.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (10)

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (11)

16.  Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (13)

17.  Carolina Panthers (5-4) (29)

18.  Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (17)

19.  Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (22)

20.  Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (23)

21.  Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (19)

22.  Houston Texans (3-5) (24)

23.  Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (20)

24.  Washington Commanders (3-6) (15)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (21)

26.  Cleveland Browns (2-6) (28)

27.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (25)

28.  New York Giants (2-7) (26)

29.  Miami Dolphins (2-7) (27)

30.  New Orleans Saints (1-8) (31)

31.  New York Jets (1-8) (30)

32.  Tennessee Titans (1-8) (32)

Biggest Movers:  New England Patriots +13, Denver Broncos +12, Carolina Panthers, +12, Washington Commanders -9, Detroit Lions -8, Los Angeles Chargers -7

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive MVP - Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 9

Well, last week was back to losing.  My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year.  And if you say you are not - you are lying!!!  I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!!  So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue:  "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right?  Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.

 

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense).  So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants

I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me:  (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.  

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams.  Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense).  Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense.  They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

F' it.  Why not!

Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year.  They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times.  But they don't have those playmakers now.  The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing.  They really should just trade Maxx Crosby.  the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds.  I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week.  Let's go ..... Buffalo!

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.

Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

I didn't really know what to do here:  Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road.  So, I settled here.

Last Week Record: 5-8

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 54-67

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($545)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 8

 

Finally, a pretty good week.  A winning week in terms of percentage, and with the Big Bet being correct, in the positive!!!  Ordinarily that would be great, except I have already dug myself a really big hole for the year.  But, I would say that I am figuring this season out, but we all know that is not true.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers are the second-best team in total offense (3rd in passing).  And since the defenses are relatively even - within an average of 12 yards per game, I will take the more prolific offense given that they are the home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is possible that Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, but even if he does, he has only been limited in practice this week.  Will he be a bit rusty?  Also, he doesn't help the defense that is giving up 32.3 points per game - last in the NFL.  Chicago is 10th in scoring, and is the only team in the league that has scored at least 21 points in each of its games.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

The Jets are in disarray evidenced by Woody Johnson's comments this week about Justin Fields.  Is it possible that Breece Hall and Quinnen Williams are moved by the trade deadline?  I don't know but I guarantee there will be discussions.  The Joe Flacco reclamation train steams full-speed ahead, with the best receiving corps he has EVER had.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Carolina's defense is actually pretty stout (6th overall, 8th rushing defense and 10th passing defense), and Andy Dalton is a tried-and-true professional, but Buffalo is rested and coming off a bye-week and two-game losing streak, so I expect them to come roaring out against the Panthers.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This Texans' defense is absolutely terrifying, as it is 1st in scoring, 4th in total defense, 5th in passing defense, and 10th in rushing defense.  But Houston's offense is below average in everything, and is next to last in 3rd-down percentage.  Plus, who had Mac Jones leading the number 1 passing offense?!  Nobody, that's who.  I'll take the points with McCaffrey, especially with Houston playing on a short week.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

With both teams well-into the bottom-half in scoring defense, and both teams in-or-near the middle in scoring, I will take over a touchdown.  Philly wins, but New York keeps it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Ladies and Gentlemen:  Your first-place/division-leading New England Patriots.  I actually hate this pick, but for all of Cleveland's faults, they have the number 1 total defense in the NFL (3rd passing/4th rushing), so that alone could keep this game close.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's be clear, I absolutely HATE this pick.  I really, really, really want to pick Tampa Bay here, because let's face it, Tampa is better!!!  But, Tampa Bay is on a short week, and a home dog in an intra-divisional game is always a smart choice.  Doesn't feel right here, but I will go with it and not try to overthink it, especially since defensively the team ranks are pretty similar.

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is giving points after an ultra-emotional unrealistic comeback win (33 points in the 4th quarter!!!) over the New York Giants.  There just HAS to be some type of letdown.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is just ridiculous enough to happen!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes Pittsburgh is in first in the AFC North, but I think that is more about Mike Tomlin than anything else, as the team was a bit exposed against the Bengals last week.  They do have some extra rest, but I expect Green Bay to win this by 10.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

This pick seems really disrespectful to the Commanders, but the Chiefs have won all 4 of their games by over 13 points (4-1 in their last 5 after an 0-2 start), and the Commanders will be playing without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.  I will roll the dice with two double-digit favorite picks.  Maybe one of them hits.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

This is a lot of points to give-up for a Big Bet, but I really do think the Dolphins have given up.  Plus, my other thoughts are all on the road (Green Bay, Cleveland, and Dallas).

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 49-59

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,115) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 7

 

In short, I have no idea what is going on this year, and neither do you!  That is all.  That is the preamble for this week.  I got nothing!  I will say that I am just going to stick to the betting rules and see what happens for a couple of weeks.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Yeah, this will be fun.  Taking the team with the worst offense and the second to worst defense in Cincinnati.  Literally 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense.  But then again, Pittsburgh is 30th in offense and 27th in defense.  So, maybe this isn't awful taking a home underdog in an intra-divisional game and the home team on a short week - especially since it is the same team.  Go Joe Flacco, I guess?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams (in London)

There are a whole lot of Londoners that probably believe Blake Bortles should be in the Hall of Fame, as the Jaguars always play great in their adopted home city.  Matthew Stafford is playing great this year - top 3 in the MVP right now for me - but both teams score about the same amount of points (23.3 for Rams and 23.2 for Jacksonville), so I will take the points.  Also note, underdogs have done really well overseas this year, not just against the spread.

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Hey, they Bears have won 2 consecutive games 25-24, so they have the ability to keep the games close.  And, both of those were on the road.  But, they are on a short week and Spencer Rattler is showing some signs of life as a starting NFL quarterback.  Bears win, but maybe this time 24-20?

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game feels like it should be 6 1/2 points, especially since we have no earthly idea how the Titans are going to react to the Brian Callahan firing.  This could actually fire up the players.  But, the Patriots are in first place in the division, and they have to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs given the state of the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This pick is all about defense:  Miami's is 30th in Total Defense (20th in Pass Defense; 32nd in Rush Defense; and 29th in Scoring Defense), whereas Cleveland's is 2nd in Total Defense (7th in Pass Defense; 3rd in Rush Defense and 21st in Scoring Defense).  Loser of this game loses its coach!

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at New York Jets

Carolina is 3-3 and on a 2-game winning streak.  The Jets are winless.  Carolina is doing this with defense (7th in Total Defense and 9th against the rush), which could help against the lone bright spot for the Jets - its 5th-ranked rushing offense.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I like Minnesota a lot better with Carson Wentz than with J.J. McCarthy, especially behind the 6th ranked defense (5th in scoring).  Philadelphia is a good team, but nowhere near as good as their reputation as the defending champion.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are rounding into form.  A double-digit favorite against a division rival form, probably not, but what the hell.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. New York Giants

Once again, it is defense as Denver is 4th in Total Defense, 6th in Rushing Defense, 4th in Passing Defense, and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Nick Bonitto for MVP!

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I'll admit it; I am late to the Indianapolis Colts train, and I still might not be there.  And, I am a big fan of the Chargers' potential this year.  BUT, the Colts are a ridiculously balanced offensive team (5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards), and score the most points in the league.  And, although the defense isn't great, it is the 4th stingiest to score upon, even if they do give up yards.  So, the I will take the fact that they are getting points here.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Listen, I DO NOT LIKE THIS BET.  But, the Commanders are on a short week and the Cowboys are at home getting points to an intra-divisional opponent.  I'll take them.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

After starting off 2-0 (against the Saints and Panthers mind you) the Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak.  I expect that to continue as this Cardinals team is not good.  The Packers didn't look great last week, but they won handily, and I expect them to do the same here.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Fred Warner hurts this squad - literally and figuratively - but I expect San Francisco to rally just like they have all year in replacing almost everybody to injury at some point already.  Plus, Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Detroit Lions

First off, this is way too many points the way the Buccaneers have been playing.  This should be about a 2 1/2 point line.  So, I will take the extra 3 points.  And, Tampa's offense is humming behind Baker Mayfield (7th in passing and 6th in scoring.  And, the 5th-rated rush defense could potentially hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check.  I expect this game to be fun to watch, and close.  When it's close, I will gladly take points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

I am doing it.  Seattle at home on Monday night.  Crowd should be electric.  I'll take it.

Last Week Record:  5-10

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  40-53

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($765)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($2,505) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 6

An actual .500 week percentage-wise, but lost the Big Bet, as a number of HUGE upsets occurred, and six teams rallied from double-digit deficits to win outright.  This hurt me in some (See New England Patriots) and helped me in others (See Carolina Panthers).  Either way, super-weird year this year as neither Kansas City nor Baltimore are on track to make the playoffs, and Baltimore is in SERIOUS trouble   And, teams like Jacksonville and Seattle are having banner starts to their seasons.  Like I said, weird.  Might need to start varying away from the traditional gambling rules - who knows.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Other than their records and the fact that Philadelphia is the defending-Super Bowl Champion, nothing about the stats say Philadelphia.  The Giants offense is better (20th to 30th - including the fact that the Giants are 13th in rushing offense and the Eagles with Saquon are 25th!), AND the Giants defense is marginally better (27th to 30th).    But, the Eagles score (12th in scoring, and are moderate in scoring defense (16th), and this pick violates two gambling rules - never give points on the road in an intra-divisional game and always pick the home team on a short week.  So, perhaps this will hit.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 over New York Jets (in London)

With the travel in London, and with the understanding that weird things happen in the overseas games, I was looking for something, anything, upon which I could take the points in this game.  The best thing the Jets have going for them is that they are the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL.  BUT, the Broncos are 5th best in defending the run and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Denver it is, hopefully by a lot.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals now-starting running back Michael Carter averages 2.74 yards per carry.  Indianapolis' offense is cruising, with the 4th best Total Offense, 4th best Passing Offense, and 2nd highest Scoring Offense.  Its 3rd best Scoring Defense doesn't hurt either!

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

No official word on if Lamar Jackson will play or not, but he is likely out.  Better chance that Kyle Hamilton plays.  I hate taking Pacific teams in the 1:00 slot when they play in the Eastern time zone, but this is the week to flip-the-script, especially with the second-best Total offense in the league (Rams) going against the 31st-ranked Total Defense (Ravens).

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland's defense is 2nd in the NFL in Total Defense, 4th in Passing Defense and is the best team in the NFL in stopping the run. Quinshon Judkins has added a much-needed jolt to the rushing game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in a bell-cow roll, with the team getting a jolt from Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford when they spell Judkins (6.2 and 11.2 yards per carry respectively).  Yes, the Steelers are 301 and in first place in the AFC North and are clearly more talented overall than the Browns.  And, they have won 8 straight games coming off a bye - which is the case this week.  So, they should win this game, but does a 21-17 game seem about right?  It does to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams are probably the most (positively) surprising teams in the NFL, and are both poised to make a run for the playoffs this year.  Sam Darnold leading Seattle's fifth-ranked passing offense is surprising, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout is not.  Liam Cohen's best decision was to trade Tank Bigsby - not because he isn't talented but because there is now no confusion as to who the number 1 running back is (Trevor Etienne, if you don't know), and the Jaguars offense has clearly rallied behind him as they are 5th in the NFL in rushing, with Etienne being 4th in individual rushing.  For this game, I am going with the tried-and-true axiom of taking the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot versus a Pacific Time Zone opponent, even though Jacksonville is on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Going against the betting rules here even though the Chargers have lost Najee Harris (previously) and now Omarion Hampton from their offensive backfield because the defense gives up the 6th least amount of points in the league, and more importantly BECAUSE THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ARE THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE RIGHT NOW!!!  I am surprised that Mike McDaniel survived last weekend's collapse against the Carolina Panthers with his job intact.

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This was a very difficult pick to make.  Yes, the Patriots are coming off a stunning victory over the Buffalo Bills, but New Orleans somewhat righted itself offensively last week - granted it WAS against the New York Giants.  Drake Maye is spreading the ball around and playing at a high level.  New England maybe starts a roll toward the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is all about taking points.  Both teams are 1-4, and Las Vegas looks a little better than Tennessee, but neither team scores a lot of point (14.6 per for Tennesse; 16.6 per for Las Vegas (31st and 30th in the NFL respectively), and neither team stops the other teams from scoring, giving up 28.2 per game for Tennessee (26th) and 27.8 per game for Las Vegas (25th).  Given those numbers, I'll take the points.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Really good matchup between two 4-1 first place teams, that are pretty evenly matched.  Offenses are comparable, as are the defenses.  Both have momentum, as the Niners upset the Rams last week and the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks.  Really nothing that I can put my finger on here other than just taking the home team in what the linemakers think is basically a toss-up as well.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, I know that Green Bay is monumentally better than Cincinnati, but, the Bengals are still NFL players, and 14 1/2 is a LOT of points.  That's it.  That's my reasoning.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are on a disappointing short week, after squandering the game against what is starting to look like a really good Jacksonville Jaguars team on Monday night.  Detroit scores in bunches (34.8 points per game - tops in the league).  Kansas City is relatively pedestrian offensively for a team that has Patrick Mahomes, although it is possible that Tyquan Thornton is developing into a great accompaniment to Xavier Worthy as a weapon.  Detroit getting the points and scoring a lot of points.

Washington Commanders -4 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Yes Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears offense is much improved, and yes they are on a 2-game winning streak, and yes, they basically had that game against Washington last year with inferior talent to this year's squad before the Hail Mary, but Washington looked really, really good against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in their 27-10 win, and that leads me to believe they will handle the Bears at home on Monday night.  A positive for Bears fans, Ben Johnson has never lost a game as head coach coming off a bye week.

Atlanta Falcons +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be angry after losing last week to the New England Patriots, but Atlanta is a tougher out than you would think given that they are 2-0 and lost 30-0 to Carolina.  Even with that drubbing, they are the best team in the NFL in Total Defense (1st in Passing Defense/16th in Rushing Defense) and 16th in Third Down Defense.  They are also 6th in Total Offense (6th against the run).  Should be able to at least keep this close, although I expect the Bills to win.  Plus, Atlanta is coming off a bye.

Byes:  Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

I really wanted to take the Commanders here, but this just seems like the biggest mismatch on the board.  Dak Prescott has a 101.1 rating on the season and Bryce Young has a 79.5.   Javonte Williams is third in the NFL in rushing with 447 yards and second in rushing touchdowns.  George Pickens is second in TD receptions.  Too much firepower.

Last Week Record:  7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  35-43

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,740)