Picks of the Week - NFL Week 6

An actual .500 week percentage-wise, but lost the Big Bet, as a number of HUGE upsets occurred, and six teams rallied from double-digit deficits to win outright.  This hurt me in some (See New England Patriots) and helped me in others (See Carolina Panthers).  Either way, super-weird year this year as neither Kansas City nor Baltimore are on track to make the playoffs, and Baltimore is in SERIOUS trouble   And, teams like Jacksonville and Seattle are having banner starts to their seasons.  Like I said, weird.  Might need to start varying away from the traditional gambling rules - who knows.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Other than their records and the fact that Philadelphia is the defending-Super Bowl Champion, nothing about the stats say Philadelphia.  The Giants offense is better (20th to 30th - including the fact that the Giants are 13th in rushing offense and the Eagles with Saquon are 25th!), AND the Giants defense is marginally better (27th to 30th).    But, the Eagles score (12th in scoring, and are moderate in scoring defense (16th), and this pick violates two gambling rules - never give points on the road in an intra-divisional game and always pick the home team on a short week.  So, perhaps this will hit.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 over New York Jets (in London)

With the travel in London, and with the understanding that weird things happen in the overseas games, I was looking for something, anything, upon which I could take the points in this game.  The best thing the Jets have going for them is that they are the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL.  BUT, the Broncos are 5th best in defending the run and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Denver it is, hopefully by a lot.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals now-starting running back Michael Carter averages 2.74 yards per carry.  Indianapolis' offense is cruising, with the 4th best Total Offense, 4th best Passing Offense, and 2nd highest Scoring Offense.  Its 3rd best Scoring Defense doesn't hurt either!

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

No official word on if Lamar Jackson will play or not, but he is likely out.  Better chance that Kyle Hamilton plays.  I hate taking Pacific teams in the 1:00 slot when they play in the Eastern time zone, but this is the week to flip-the-script, especially with the second-best Total offense in the league (Rams) going against the 31st-ranked Total Defense (Ravens).

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland's defense is 2nd in the NFL in Total Defense, 4th in Passing Defense and is the best team in the NFL in stopping the run. Quinshon Judkins has added a much-needed jolt to the rushing game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in a bell-cow roll, with the team getting a jolt from Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford when they spell Judkins (6.2 and 11.2 yards per carry respectively).  Yes, the Steelers are 301 and in first place in the AFC North and are clearly more talented overall than the Browns.  And, they have won 8 straight games coming off a bye - which is the case this week.  So, they should win this game, but does a 21-17 game seem about right?  It does to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams are probably the most (positively) surprising teams in the NFL, and are both poised to make a run for the playoffs this year.  Sam Darnold leading Seattle's fifth-ranked passing offense is surprising, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout is not.  Liam Cohen's best decision was to trade Tank Bigsby - not because he isn't talented but because there is now no confusion as to who the number 1 running back is (Trevor Etienne, if you don't know), and the Jaguars offense has clearly rallied behind him as they are 5th in the NFL in rushing, with Etienne being 4th in individual rushing.  For this game, I am going with the tried-and-true axiom of taking the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot versus a Pacific Time Zone opponent, even though Jacksonville is on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Going against the betting rules here even though the Chargers have lost Najee Harris (previously) and now Omarion Hampton from their offensive backfield because the defense gives up the 6th least amount of points in the league, and more importantly BECAUSE THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ARE THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE RIGHT NOW!!!  I am surprised that Mike McDaniel survived last weekend's collapse against the Carolina Panthers with his job intact.

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This was a very difficult pick to make.  Yes, the Patriots are coming off a stunning victory over the Buffalo Bills, but New Orleans somewhat righted itself offensively last week - granted it WAS against the New York Giants.  Drake Maye is spreading the ball around and playing at a high level.  New England maybe starts a roll toward the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is all about taking points.  Both teams are 1-4, and Las Vegas looks a little better than Tennessee, but neither team scores a lot of point (14.6 per for Tennesse; 16.6 per for Las Vegas (31st and 30th in the NFL respectively), and neither team stops the other teams from scoring, giving up 28.2 per game for Tennessee (26th) and 27.8 per game for Las Vegas (25th).  Given those numbers, I'll take the points.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Really good matchup between two 4-1 first place teams, that are pretty evenly matched.  Offenses are comparable, as are the defenses.  Both have momentum, as the Niners upset the Rams last week and the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks.  Really nothing that I can put my finger on here other than just taking the home team in what the linemakers think is basically a toss-up as well.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, I know that Green Bay is monumentally better than Cincinnati, but, the Bengals are still NFL players, and 14 1/2 is a LOT of points.  That's it.  That's my reasoning.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are on a disappointing short week, after squandering the game against what is starting to look like a really good Jacksonville Jaguars team on Monday night.  Detroit scores in bunches (34.8 points per game - tops in the league).  Kansas City is relatively pedestrian offensively for a team that has Patrick Mahomes, although it is possible that Tyquan Thornton is developing into a great accompaniment to Xavier Worthy as a weapon.  Detroit getting the points and scoring a lot of points.

Washington Commanders -4 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Yes Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears offense is much improved, and yes they are on a 2-game winning streak, and yes, they basically had that game against Washington last year with inferior talent to this year's squad before the Hail Mary, but Washington looked really, really good against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in their 27-10 win, and that leads me to believe they will handle the Bears at home on Monday night.  A positive for Bears fans, Ben Johnson has never lost a game as head coach coming off a bye week.

Atlanta Falcons +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be angry after losing last week to the New England Patriots, but Atlanta is a tougher out than you would think given that they are 2-0 and lost 30-0 to Carolina.  Even with that drubbing, they are the best team in the NFL in Total Defense (1st in Passing Defense/16th in Rushing Defense) and 16th in Third Down Defense.  They are also 6th in Total Offense (6th against the run).  Should be able to at least keep this close, although I expect the Bills to win.  Plus, Atlanta is coming off a bye.

Byes:  Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

I really wanted to take the Commanders here, but this just seems like the biggest mismatch on the board.  Dak Prescott has a 101.1 rating on the season and Bryce Young has a 79.5.   Javonte Williams is third in the NFL in rushing with 447 yards and second in rushing touchdowns.  George Pickens is second in TD receptions.  Too much firepower.

Last Week Record:  7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  35-43

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,740) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 5

This season has been abysmal.  I am just going to go ahead and blame all of the injuries, but truly it is that I have not been paying as much attention as I need to do.  In fact, I am in a confidence league and I am also doing worse than I have ever picked in that league too.  Got to turn it around, so going to really make sure I give it my all this week.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Ordinarily this spread would be much closer, as the NFL's 4th-ranked offense (Rams) challenges the 3rd-ranked defense (49ers).  But, San Francisco is just missing too many players, and it is a short week.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 against Minnesota Vikings (in London)

The jet lag for the Browns could really be a problem, as Minnesota played in Dublin last week.  But, Cleveland has the number 1 total defense in the NFL (4th against the pass and 1st against the rush), Quinshon Judkins could feast on the 25ht-ranked run defense, and maybe they get a boost from Dillon Gabriel's first start, much as the Giants did with Dart's first start last week.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at New York Jets

The Jets looked putrid last week at the Dolphins, and that was on Monday night, making this a short week for the Jets.  Cowboys have the 5th highest scoring offense, and the best passing and total offense in the NFL.  Now, there are a lot of injuries for the Cowboys, so this line has moved from -2 1/2 to +1.  I'll take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Philadelphia put together its best performance of the season last week against Tampa Bay, and they get the Broncos coming off a late Monday night game.  Denver's offense is starting to click, but this is going to be a tough combo of playing the Eagles and off a short week, so I'll give the points.

Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about this pick makes any sense, I know.  Lamar Jackson is doubtful at this time, so Cooper Rush will likely get the start.  Rush has had some quality starts in the NFL, so he won't be rattled - even though Houston's defense - especially its pass rush - can be scary.  But, the Ravens NEED this win in order to keep moving toward the playoffs and desperate teams sometimes play desperately.  And that is easy to do when you have Derrick Henry, who should get 25 touches this game.   But then, I see that the worst defense in the NFL will now be missing Kyle Hamilton, so I switched my pick.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

So the Jaxson Dart start was amazing last week - in terms of the Giants win.  But, he didn't play that great (he played fine, great for a first start).  But the injuries continue to mount as the Giants lost Malik Nabers for the season.  Of more concern should be the 29th-ranked rush defense in trying to stop Alvin Kamara, who is likely auditioning for a trade with a playoff-contender.

Las Vegas Raiders +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This might be the game where the Colts come back down to earth, unless everybody was completely wrong about Daniel Jones and it was the team - and not him - that was the problem in New York.  Colts may very well score enough points to win this game (they are 4th in scoring offense), but the Raiders may be learning how to use Ashton Jeanty enough to keep this under a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins are on a short week, and lost Tyreek Hill for the season (although they may have discovered Malik Washington as an actual offensive weapon).  Carolina is bad, but they actually give up less points than the Dolphins on the season.  If only they could find a QB or a RB.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

I am taking the Buccaneers on the chance that Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving actually play (which is NOT a given).  But that being said, Teddy Bridgewater is a solid back-up and Richaad White has run well in his opportunities so far this year.  I think with more than a field goal, this is a solid pick regardless of Mayfield and Irving's status.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

So Arizona is without its top two backs in James Conner and Trey Benson.  Won't matter as this Titans team is giving up 30 points per game and is last in the NFL in scoring.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Chargers are REALLY good this year.  Their defense is 4th in Total Defense and 4th in Scoring Defense and the offense is 7th in Total Offense (5th in Passing Offense).  Jayden Daniels returns, and that should be a spark for the Commanders, but they just aren't going to have enough to win this on the road.

Detroit Lions -10 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were drubbed by the Broncos on Monday night, and although double digits are a lot of points to give up in the NFL, this is a short week for Cincinnati.  Detroit has scored the most points in the NFL.

New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills should win this game, especially with the 2nd-ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the NFL.  But, Drake Maye is legitimate, and perhaps Trayveon Henderson can live up to some of h is preseason hype against the 31st ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo goes to 5-0, but the Patriots keep it close.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

This goes against every fiber of my being picking a team on the road giving up points as my Big Bet, but that thumping of the Ravens last week (and yes, I get it a lot of Ravens went down with injuries) showed me something, and that something coincided with the return of Xavier Worthy and Chris Jones.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-36

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-3

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,505) 

NFL Quarter-Season Review

 

As anyone who knows us knows - we are huge NFL fans here at We Make It Rain. And like any good NFL fans, we watch more than our share of games every year. This year is no exception. Since we have all of this NFL knowledge just seething to get out of our craniums, I thought that I would resurrect an old feature from way-back in the day - the quarter-season review.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season. 

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (4-0)

The class of this division, most likely the conference, and possibly even the NFL at this point.  Josh Allen starting off on a repeat-MVP type of season, and James Cook back to his old touchdown-scoring self.  And the defense is stepping up, as it is the stoutest defense against the pass and 9th in Total Defense,

New England Patriots (2-2)

A surprisingly spry start for the Patriots who have definitely found their quarterback in Drake Maye.  They will lose some that they shouldn't as the running game is lacking (26th), but they will win some they shouldn't as their rush defense is strong (2nd).

Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Lots of holes on this team as they are 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  And, they just lost Tyreek Hill for the season.

New York Jets (0-4)

Just dreadful.  At least Justin Fields will make some plays exciting as he is funning for his life.  This team IS somehow 3rd in the NFL in rushing, which ain't nothing.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Doing this with smoke-and-mirrors and an ayuhuasca-addled Aaron Rodgers.  The Steelers are 29th in Total Offense and 28th in Total Defense, yet they are 3-1.  I do not expect them to stay high in the Power Rankings all year, but Mike Tomlin might actually be the best coach in NFL history.  He has done more with less than any other coach.  Please note that I am not saying that he has never had talent, but even when he doesn't have a lot of talent, his teams are still good.

Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Starting off 2-0 with Joe Burrow is way different than finishing at least the majority of the season without him.  The fact that the defense is 29th in total defense doesn't help matters, either.

Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

Easily the best 1-3 team of all time with their losses to the Bills/Lions/Chiefs - but they are still only 1-3.  The trepidatiously await the results of Lamar Jackson's MRI today.

Cleveland Browns (1-3)

time to give Dillon Gabriel a chance.  And if that doesn't work, Shadeur Sanders.  And look to trade Myles Garret to get a haul of picks in the next two to three years.  This year is O-V-E-R.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Maybe New York/New Jersey was the problem and not Daniel Jones.  The Colts have the 3rd overall offense in the NFL (4th passing?!) and have scored the 4th-highest amount of points.  The defense is less stout than usual (17th overall) but is T8th against the run.  And, they have Jonthan Taylor and Nick Cross who are among the NFL's best at their positions, and the emerging star Tyler Warren.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

One of the surprises of the year - at least to me - and their one loss was prior to Joe Burrow's injury in Cincinnati.  Travis Etienne is leading a rushing group that is 4th in the NFL, keeping the time of possession in the Jags' favor, and the rush defense is also 4th in the league.

Houston Texans (1-3)

So disappointing.  We may have seen the best of C.J. Stroud (23rd in Passing Offense).  Defense is tough, as they lead the league in Scoring Defense and are 7th in Total Defense.

Tennessee Titans (0-4)

Worst team in the league, but on the bright side, Cam Ward looks like he belongs!

AFC WEST

Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are balanced on both sides of the ball (7th in Total Offense and 4th in Total Defense), and could make a deep run in the playoffs.  However, they have lost both tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and that could ultimately spell their downfall this season.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

They started off 0-2 with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, but boy what a difference Xavier Worthy makes.  The Chiefs offense was humming in this week's victory over the Ravens, scoring 37.  And what a difference Chris Jones makes, as his return also coincided with the Chiefs defeat of the Ravens.  Will be scary for the rest of the year (Stop me if you have heard this before!)

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Losses to the Colts (by 1) and Chargers (by 3) are not bad losses by any stretch of the imagination, especially since Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton seem to be on the same page these last two weeks.  That could be dangerous to the rest of the league, as Denver is already 5th in the NFL in Rushing Offense.  The defense, led by Nick Bonitto is T2 in Scoring Defense and T3 in third-down percentage defense.

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)

They may have an emerging star at running back in Ashton Jeanty, but Geno Smith is nowhere near his Seattle-level of play.  Defense isn't helping matters as they are 20th in Total Defense despite Maxx Crosby's stellar play.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)

At 4-0, clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they are undefeated despite have the 30th ranked Total Offense in the league and the 22nd ranked Total Defense.  Sound victory over Tampa this weekend shows that they just might be better than the stats show - or they could revert to the mean.

Washington Commanders (2-2)

A way different team with Jayden Daniels injured, but the second-best rushing offense using a multitude of running backs can at least keep you in every game.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1_

At times they have looked awful (a 31-14 loss to the Bears and a 3-point victory over the Giants), and then they come out of nowhere and tie the Green Bay Packers 40-40.  Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing, and is spreading the ball around in the wake of losing CeeDee Lamb for a bit to injury.  Defense is atrocious though - last in the league in Total Defense and 31st in Scoring Defense.

New York Giants (1-3)

The plusses are that they are finally starting Jaxson Dart and have played gritty.  The negative is that Malik Nabers is lost for the year.

.

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions (3-1)

A two-touchdown loss to the Packers in week 1 is the only blemish in an otherwise stellar resume.  The lead the NFL in scoring, and are 8th in Total Offense, while maintaining a respectable 13th-rankin in Total Defense.  They will be a team to reckon with in the playoffs, and a likely NFC Championship game participant barring injuries.

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)

The Packers started off as literally the best team in the league in the first two weeks.  Then, a 13-10 loss to Cleveland and a 40-40 tie against Dallas.  Has the league figured out Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur?  They do boast the 6th best Total Defense (2nd against the rush) and the offense is ranked 9th, but have they lost some luster?

Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

J.J. McCarthy is hurt, but it seems the offense might be better without him.  The Bears let them off the hook in week 1, and the Vikes other win was a thrashing of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team.  They are 3rd against the pass defensively, but their 22nd Total Offense ranking leaves a lot to be desired.  Could go either way this season.

Chicago Bears (2-2)

They definitely look much better this year, and Caleb Williams is well on his way to setting team single-season records for yards and touchdowns.  The rushing game needs to improve (24th) as does the rushing defense (32nd) to make any real noise, but the improvement is there.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Tampa Bay has played fantastic, despite having been cut-down by injuries.  They have been led by the defense which is 5th in Total Defense, and Rush Defense, while the offense is middle-of-the-pack.  The one dangerous sign is that each of their three wins has been on last-minute drives by Baker Mayfield.  The good thing is that they know they can win last-minute drives!

Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

The fact that Atlanta is only 2-2 is fascinating.  They are like the anti-Eagles, in that all of their stats say "Undefeated!"  They have the 6th ranked Total Offense (9th in passing and 7th in rushing) ANZD the 2nd ranked Total Defense (including 2nd against the pass).  One of the losses was a 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the lowly Carolina Panthers.

Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Really, really bad, and except for the 30-0 blowout of the Falcons, one could say that they are horrible and that the Bryce Young pick was a waste.

New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Easily the bottom-dweller of the NFC.  Only stats you need to know:  28th in scoring and 30th in scoring defense.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

Surprisingly spry considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  All of the time these backups have been playing is only going to make them deeper and more dangerous as the year progresses.  The Fred Warner-led defense is 3rd in Total Defense, and 7th in Scoring Defense.  The offense, that even lost Brock Purdy for a couple of games, is 2nd in Passing Offense and 5th in Total Offense.

Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams have been fantastic besides, even though two of their wins are against the Texans and Titans.  They are 4th in Total Offense and 10th in Total Defense, without any real contribution in the pass game outside of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Seattle is a surprising 3-1, but we forget that Sam Darnold is a more than serviceable regular season quarterback.  The team is 6th in Scoring Offense and Tied for 2nd in Scoring Defense.  That will win you a lot of games.  Plus, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an Offensive Player of the Year type of year.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Arizona is an unusual 202, as they rank 28th in Total Offense and 23rd in Total Defense.  Kyler Murray is going to stunt Marvin Harrison, Jr.'s growth - and potential stardom.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Buffalo Bills 4-0

2.  Philadelphia Eagles 4-0

3.  Los Angeles Chargers 3-1

4.  Detroit Lions 3-1

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

6.  San Francisco 49ers

7.  Los Angeles Rams 3-1

8  Indianapolis Colts 3-1

9.  Seattle Seahawks 3-1

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1

11.  Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

12.  Green Bay Packers 2-1-1

13.  Kansas City Chiefs 2-2

14.  Denver Broncos 2-2

15.  Washington Commanders 2-2

16.  New England Patriots 2-2

17.  Minnesota Vikings 2-2

18.  Chicago Bears 2-2

19.  Atlanta Falcons 2-2

20.  Arizona Cardinals 2-2

21.  Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

22. Dallas Cowboys 1-2-1

23.  Baltimore Ravens 1-3

24.  Houston Texans 1-3

25.  Las Vegas Raiders 1-3

26.  New York Giants 1-3

27.  Miami Dolphins 1-3

28.  Cleveland Browns 1-3

29.  Carolina Panthers 1-3

30.  New York Jets 0-4

31.  New Orleans Saints 0-4

32.  Tennessee Titans 0-4

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Defensive MVP - Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - Week 4

 

I need to stop travelling, as it is obviously impacting my pics.  Also out-of-town this weekend, but hopefully we can turn this season around, as last week was horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hated this pick (for good reason), but home team on a short week and I hate taking road intra-divisional favorites.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)

A bad offense (28th) and great defense (6th) in Minnesota versus a horrible offense (30th) AND defense (29th) in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

More than 2 touchdowns?  Just a bit too much for my blood to give up.

Tennessee Titans -+7 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am doing this strictly for the points, but I am concerned that maybe this is what Houston needs to right itself after a bad year plus.  Still taking Tennessee - again just for take the points.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions

When is Cleveland going to give Dillon Gabriel a try?  Should be soon.  But, taking them here because Quinshon Judkins could be great, and because Detroit played Monday night.

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I feel that defensive coordinators have figured out Michael Penix, Jr.  Atlanta's defense is legit so far this year (2nd overall and 1st in pass defense), but Marcos Mariota is a proven veteran.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

Neither of these teams are good, and New England is better at passing the eye test (especially at QB), but 5 1/2 points?  I'll take them.

New York Giants +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This may seem unorthodox, but hear me out here:  First, maybe the Giants get a bit of a jolt from Jaxson Dart; and second, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east to play in the 1:00 window.  I will take the Giants, reluctantly.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Ben Johnson got a taste of winning last week, and although this will not be easy with 3 more starters out for the Bears, most of their playmakers on offense will be there, plus the get a look at rookie Ozzy Trapilo on the offensive line replacing Darnell Wright.  Despite a 1-2 start, Chicago is 9th in scoring offense, and 4th in third-down conversions.  That should be enough.

 

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy returns.  That has to be enough to put the Niners over the top.  Especially after starting 3-0.  Can they go 4-0?  I think they win outright.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Colts are a surprise 3-0, for sure, but unlike Philly their stats back it up.  Number 1 total offense (4th passing/3rd rushing) and number 5 total defens (8th passing/7th rushing).  They may not get to 4-0, but they very well should cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about the way they have played this year tells me that KC can keep this close, except that Baltimore has the 31st total defense (31st passing and 30th rushing), and they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

The talent differential in this game is enormous.  And we saw last week is that Dallas is BAD!

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

This game is just awful.  Horrible.  Give me points.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am super-leery of giving up more than a touchdown, but Cincy has the worst total offense in the NFL (27th in passing and 32nd in rushing), AND their defense stinks.  Denver, despite being 1-2, may have started to click this season despite losses the last two weeks.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

I looked at Chicago (on the road and too many injuries), Green Bay (giving up too many points), and Washington Commanders.  I am going to take the Buccaneers to win outright on the road, although the 3 1/2 points looks pretty good.

Last Week Record:  5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  21-27

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-2

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($875)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,050) 

Picks of the Week - Week 3

I am travelling this week, so no analysis, just picks.

Buffalo Bills -11 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts -4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

New England Patriots +2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

Washington Commanders -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons - 5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

New Orleans Saints +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I wanted to pick a home team, and this seemed like the best bet.  Lots of games with teams on a short week because of the multiple Monday night games last week, so those are out (Tampa was looking especially good as a big bet pick otherwise.)  Of all the teams with injured quarterbacks, San Francisco looked the most settled with Mac Jones in.

Last Week Record:  9-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-16

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-1

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($175) 

And, even after Week 1, gambling is still gambling.  The comebacks on both Sunday and Monday nights really hurt, as the swings at the end of the fourth quarter resulted in two losses from what looked like two very good wins, and ultimately a $420 swing ($100 per game that I didn't win, to $110 per game that I lost due to the vig).  But hey, at least the Joe Flacco Rebirth Tour continues in full effect covering my Big Bet!!!

For those new to WeMakeItRain, I will select each game, placing a $100 wager on all but one game.  That game, the Big Bet, will be for $250, and is obviously the one I think is the biggest guarantee of the week (yeah, right?!).  All picks are against the spread, and their will be no over/unders in this column until the playoffs (when the number of games is fewer).  Anyway, let's get to the picks!!!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

A refrain that you will read over-and-over-and-over again this  year, take the home team on a short week.  Doesn't hurt that the Packers looked like one of the best three teams in Week 1 - the others being the Bills and Ravens.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

So the Bears simultaneously looked like the Bears, and looked like a much-improved team, taking a 14-3 Minnesota squad down to the wire while the Bears defense was missing three starters, including two cornerback that would have been responsible for covering Justin Jefferson.  But, the Bears played Monday night, and the Lions have a lot to prove after they looked ordinary against the Packers.  If the Bears had a full week, I might honestly take these points, but they don't.

Los Angeles Rams -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Beware the road favorite, but luckily for betting me, Nashville plays in the Central Time Zone - not Eastern - so I am not as concerned with travel as I ordinarily would be.  The Rams won a low scoring game against the Houston Texans, and the Titans lost a close battle to the Denver Broncos, despite Titans receivers dropping some critical passes.  I think Tennessee's game was more of a function of Denver not playing well, and I think Los Angeles takes this one handily.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Both teams had hard-fought battles in Week 1, the Steelers winning a shootout against the Jets and the Seahawks falling to the 49ers, Seattle is travelling east and playing at 1:00, and Aaron Rodgers is playing like Aaron Rodgers.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Ok, Ok, calm down.  The Jets are not going to WIN this game.  But, as I stated a number of times last week, I hate selecting road favorites in intra-divisional games.  Plus, given that the Bills started with a huge comeback win against Baltimore, this might be a little bit of a letdown game.  Also, the Jets looked spry last week against the Steelers.  Spry enough to keep this somewhat close.

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Dallas looked like an actual football team last week in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles, and they were a couple of CeeDee Lamb drops away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champion.  The Giants, were, well the Giants.

Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is going to have to be pissed after handing a sure-fire win to Buffalo last week, but ... 11 1/2 is A LOT of points to a divisional rival, especially one experiencing the Joe Flacco Rebirth Tour!!!  I'll take the points in an otherwise comfortable Ravens victory.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the worst game of the week - yes even worse than the next game I will be selecting.  Mac Jones starting for the 49ers, George Kittle out.  They still have a healthy McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall, but there is just too much unknown.  I'll take points at home in this situation, even if those points involve Spencer Rattler.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Just judging on Week 1, Miami IS the worst team in the league.  The problem is that Week 1 causes A LOT of overreactions.  The domestic assault investigation (yes another one) into Tyreek Hill is another issue.  Give me the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville proved a lot to me last week, which isn't much as I expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and the Jags finally cutting ties with Trevor Lawrence, but again, they only beat Carolina.  Cincinnati struggled with Cleveland, but I think we all expected that.  Is it possible that by jettisoning Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne can become more comfortable and the offense can really settle down and play?  We will see.  Cincinnati will be in playoff contention all year, and they win at home by a touchdown.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Arizona looked good at times last week, albeit against the Saints, but a touchdown reception by the uber-talented Marvin Harrison, Jr. is HUGE!  Carolina, on the other hand, did not look good at all against Jacksonville.  I wish this was around 4 1/2 to 5 points to feel more comfortable, but it isn't.  I still have to give the points at home.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Is this the NFL or the Kentucky Derby?  All that seem to be missing are the old USFL Birmingham Stallions and the current UFL Birmingham Stallions.  Denver's offense struggled a bit against the Titans, and the Colts were ON FIRE against the Dolphins, but this game is a different type of race.

Philadelphia Eagles +1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Philadelphia was challenged by Dallas last week, so the question is ... Has Philly taken a step back, or is Dallas pretty good?  We have been asking the step-back question about Kansas City constantly over the past few years, but even then, they never do, even when they do.  Philly is still better overall, especially on the lines, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons + 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota really showed us something in the fourth quarter against the Bears, and they seem like they could be a dangerous team this year.  But, Atlanta needs to rebound badly from their loss to Tampa Bay in order to avoid starting 0-2, and Minnesota is on a short week.  Minnesota 28-27.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Houston Texans

I was more disappointed by Houston than any other team last week.  9 points?  Really?  You always need to avoid overreacting to Week 1, but I can get points against the Texans right now?  Yes, please.

Las Vegas Raiders + 3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I HATE this pick.  HATE it, HATE it, HATE it.  You get the picture?  Well, Pepster, why are you picking the Raiders, then?  Because it is early in the season and there is less to really study before making picks, so I really, really need to rely on traditional betting rules, like not taking a divisional road favorite.

BIG BET:

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Dallas looked like an actual football team last week in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles, and they were a couple of CeeDee Lamb drops away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champion.  The Giants, were, well the Giants.

This just seems too obvious.  Cowboys played to the level of the Eagles last week, and the Giants played to the level of the Giants.  If this keeps up, Dallas will win big.  Javonte Williams also looks more than serviceable enough as the Dallas passing attack searches for balance from the running game.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  7-9

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($140)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 1

WE ARE BACK BABY!!!  The NFL, and NFL gambling!!!  The time when Thursday, Sunday and Monday (and the occasional Friday and Saturday) are consumed by professional football (and bets).  And now is also the time when every NFL fanbase is overly excited about their chances of winning a Super Bowl, and every gambler is overly excited about their chances of winning a mint!  (Sense a theme, here?!)  Anyway, we love this time of year, and you can expect this weekly column to be posted throughout the season.

For those new to WeMakeItRain, I will select each game, placing a $100 wager on all but one game.  That game, the Big Bet, will be for $250, and is obviously the one I think is the biggest guarantee of the week (yeah, right?!).  All picks are against the spread, and their will be no over/unders in this column until the playoffs (when the number of games is fewer).  Anyway, let's get straight to the picks!!!

Dallas Cowboys + 7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes Philadelphia is the defending champion.  Yes, they are the favorites to win again this year.  Yes, they return a whole lot of talent on offense.  But, they lost some talent on defense, especially in the secondary.  And although I expect them to win, I also expect Dallas to play better than a lot of people expect.  Sure they lost Micah Parsons.  But the Dallas offense is going to score a lot of points, especially with the addition of George Pickens who, although nowhere near as productive as he thinks he is good, is very talented and will take a lot of pressure from defensive coverage away from CeeDee Lamb.  Add in Javonte Williams who is only 25 years old, and the Cowboys WILL score.  This game seems like a back-door cover to me.  [Ed. Note - So it wasn't a back-door cover, as Dallas played way better than even I thought, I'll take the W!]

Los Angeles Chargers + 3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs in Sao Paolo, Brazil

This game is being played in the world's 4th most populous metropolitan area, and the largest in the western hemisphere, and the Brazilian city gets a similarly huge quarterback battle between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.  Add to the fact that this is an early-season divisional game, and we could be looking at a classic tonight.  The Chargers loss of Tackle-extraordinaire Rashawn Slater will hurt theme more-and-more as the season progresses, but for now, everybody is fresh, and I expect both teams to spread the ball around to their entire offenses.  I don't know that Los Angeles will win, but I expect this game to be close.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I hate taking road favorites in intra-divisional games, but this game started out as Tamps -2 1/2, which means the early money all floated to Atlanta. So, I might usually entertain going against the early money (lots of reasons for that).  And, although I expect this Tampa team to be explosive offensively, especially with the addition of Emeka Egbuka, the injury to Tristan Wirfs is HUGE.  Tampa is overall more talented and should win the division, I will just take the points at home.

New York Jets + 2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

OK, I get it.  This seems ridiculous.  Pittsburgh has playoff aspirations and the Jets are, well the Jets.  But, we always have some surprises opening week, and Justin Fields - the Jets quarterback - did lead Pittsburgh to a 4-2 record when Russell Wilson was out last week.  Add to that the fact that Breece Hall might be auditioning for a trade (Chicago Bears, anyone?), and this Jets offense could keep it close.  Plus, the Jets defense has Quinnen Williams on the defensive line and Sauce Gardner at corner, as well as possibly the most underrated defender in the NFL, Jamien Sherwood, at linebacker.  The big question for Pittsburgh is can DK Metcalf turn an aging-superstar - who shall remain nameless - back into his former self?  Gimme the points.  And, I have a big feeling I will regret this pick.

Miami Dolphins +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This pick is as much about the Colts QB position as anything else.  Daniel Jones being selected over Anthony Richardson as the starter says a lot about the Colts decision to draft Richardson 4th overall than anything else.  Miami, on the other hand, looks flawed, but always plays better with a healthy Tuanigamanuolepola, and he is healthy at least for the start of the season.  Tyreek Hill has to have a better season than last year, and the return of pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelyn Phillips can be enormous for a defense that also brought back Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I am bullish on the Panthers, as Bryce Young was exponentially better the last half of last year than prior (imagine that, a player DEVELOPING?!), and they brought in Tetairoa McMillan as a weapon on the outside.  I am equally bearish on the Jaguars, and I feel this might be the year that the Trevor Lawrence (Experience/Experiment?) comes to an end in Jacksonville.  

New York Giants + 5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Man, those Giants sure had a great pre-season, and they seem so loose with Jameis Winston leading the way.  Hell, even as a backup QB that guy should be the captain.  And Malik Nabors might just be enough weapons for an experienced Russell Wilson at quarterback.  With superstar Dexter Lawrence around to take some pressure off some amazing looking young pass rushers like Brian Burns with Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter SHOULD (well Burns isn't exactly young).  Jayden Daniels is amazing, and Deebo Samuel added to a wide receiving corps that already has Terry McLaurin should do well in the long run, but week 1 can be weird, and Daniels may not always have enough time to reach his wide receivers.  Washington still wins, but close.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints very well could be fighting for the number 1 draft pick next year.  Six and a half points is a lot on the road, but gotta take some chances.  The question for Arizona is, as always, is Kyler Murray actually any good, or are we as sports fans punished by not getting to see his baseball career?

Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

How many times have we been surprised by Joe Flacco keeping a team in a game that they have no business being in?  And although there are no stars, the Browns do have a plethora of running backs and receivers from which to choose.  Expect a Cedric Tillman breakout.  With Myles Garrett being Myles Garret, Mason Graham will have a great opportunity to produce from the interior of the defensive line.  And if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome can be what scouts think they can, this defense could be legit.  That being said, Cincinnati is the more talented team, especially on offense, and should win this game.  But Cleveland will keep it close, especially at home.  Remember I hate road favorites in intra-divisional games.

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Lots of hype with the Raiders and Ashton Jeanty, and with Geno Smith coming over, this team finally has a QB upon whom they can depend.  But, this axiom is important, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot fail to cover about 2/3rds of the time.  Drake Maye had a great start to his career, and could really blossom this year, especially with rookie Trayveon Henderson running the ball and Stefon Diggs running routes.  Taking the home team.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Once again, the dreaded road favorite in an intra-divisional game, but it is only 1 1/2 points - not too much.  Especially since this Seahawks team overall is not very talented.  Sure Jaxon Smith-Njigba is really good, and Kenneth Walker can be - when healthy - but just not on the same level as McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Kyle Juszczyk and a possible breakout year for Ricky Pearsall.  Gimme the Niners.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans 

No non-Titans fan is as excited about Cam Ward's potential as a quarterback in the NFL than I am, excepting perhaps his family, but Tennessee just don't have the same talent Denver does.  Bo Nix looks like a budding superstar, Courtland Sutton is an upper-echelon receiver, and on the other side of the ball Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto are as good as anybody at their positions.  Calvin Ridley will give some relief to Ward, but Denver is the class of this game.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I, like most everyone else, might just be lowering Detroit's expectations because of the loss of Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson (to the Bears) and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn (to the Jets), more importantly might be the losses of center Frank Ragnow (retirement) and Guard Kevin Zeitler (Tennessee Titans).  But, with lots and lots of talent all over the field (St. Brown, Gibbs, Sewell, Hutchinson, Branch, et. al.) I have a feeling that the Lions will still be in the playoffs.  However, the addition of Micah Parsons may just elevate the Packers from the playoffs to conference championship level.  Being at home, I will take the Packers.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know that people consider the Rams Super Bowl contenders this year, but remember where we thought Houston could be last year, at least before Niko Collins was hurt.  And now he is back.  And I get more than a FG?  Yes, please!

Baltimore Ravens -1 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Let's be honest, I consider the Ravens the class of the AFC this year.  Buffalo is right there with them, and this game is at home, but Jackson fresh off the insult - real or perceived - of Allen winning the MVP last year, and with the addition of Jaire Alexander into the defensive backfield as a corner, to team with safety Kyle Hamilton, this Ravens team might be its best of this iteration.  Gotta start by winning this one on the road, or else they will have to travel on the road in January.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

You already know what I think about road favorites in intra-divisional games.  Add to that the new faces in the Bears coaching staff - not only Ben Johnson (HC) and Dennis Allen (DC) but also Eric Bienenmy (RB) - and the fact that a healthy Jaylon Johnson (IF he is healthy) is one of the few corners that can limit Justin Jefferson, and this might just be the perfect start for the Bears.  Monday night at home and the possibility of taking out a division foe with an essentially rookie QB?  And I am getting points?  Thank you!

BIG BET:

Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

How many times have we been surprised by Joe Flacco keeping a team in a game that they have no business being in?  And although there are no stars, the Browns do have a plethora of running backs and receivers from which to choose.  Expect a Cedric Tillman breakout.  With Myles Garrett being Myles Garret, Mason Graham will have a great opportunity to produce from the interior of the defensive line.  And if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome can be what scouts think they can, this defense could be legit.  That being said, Cincinnati is the more talented team, especially on offense, and should win this game.  But Cleveland will keep it close, especially at home.  Remember I hate road favorites in intra-divisional games.

I really like taking home teams as my Big Bet, so if I can find one getting points, usually better.  That leaves out Houston and Carolina, since they are both on the road.   I hate giving points on the road, so that leaves out San Francisco, which I also considered.  Denver was another consideration, but 8 1/2 was just TOO many.  So basically, my decision was between Cleveland and Tampa, and Cincinnati has been starting slow out of the gate recently, so, here we are ...  Already hating my Big Bet.

Last Week Record:  0-0

Last Week Big Bet: 0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  0-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $0

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  $0