Picks of the Week - NFL Week 9

Well, last week was back to losing.  My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year.  And if you say you are not - you are lying!!!  I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!!  So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue:  "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right?  Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.

 

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense).  So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants

I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me:  (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.  

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams.  Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense).  Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense.  They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

F' it.  Why not!

Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year.  They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times.  But they don't have those playmakers now.  The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing.  They really should just trade Maxx Crosby.  the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds.  I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week.  Let's go ..... Buffalo!

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.

Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

I didn't really know what to do here:  Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road.  So, I settled here.

Last Week Record: 5-8

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 54-67

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($545)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 8

 

Finally, a pretty good week.  A winning week in terms of percentage, and with the Big Bet being correct, in the positive!!!  Ordinarily that would be great, except I have already dug myself a really big hole for the year.  But, I would say that I am figuring this season out, but we all know that is not true.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers are the second-best team in total offense (3rd in passing).  And since the defenses are relatively even - within an average of 12 yards per game, I will take the more prolific offense given that they are the home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is possible that Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, but even if he does, he has only been limited in practice this week.  Will he be a bit rusty?  Also, he doesn't help the defense that is giving up 32.3 points per game - last in the NFL.  Chicago is 10th in scoring, and is the only team in the league that has scored at least 21 points in each of its games.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

The Jets are in disarray evidenced by Woody Johnson's comments this week about Justin Fields.  Is it possible that Breece Hall and Quinnen Williams are moved by the trade deadline?  I don't know but I guarantee there will be discussions.  The Joe Flacco reclamation train steams full-speed ahead, with the best receiving corps he has EVER had.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Carolina's defense is actually pretty stout (6th overall, 8th rushing defense and 10th passing defense), and Andy Dalton is a tried-and-true professional, but Buffalo is rested and coming off a bye-week and two-game losing streak, so I expect them to come roaring out against the Panthers.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This Texans' defense is absolutely terrifying, as it is 1st in scoring, 4th in total defense, 5th in passing defense, and 10th in rushing defense.  But Houston's offense is below average in everything, and is next to last in 3rd-down percentage.  Plus, who had Mac Jones leading the number 1 passing offense?!  Nobody, that's who.  I'll take the points with McCaffrey, especially with Houston playing on a short week.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

With both teams well-into the bottom-half in scoring defense, and both teams in-or-near the middle in scoring, I will take over a touchdown.  Philly wins, but New York keeps it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Ladies and Gentlemen:  Your first-place/division-leading New England Patriots.  I actually hate this pick, but for all of Cleveland's faults, they have the number 1 total defense in the NFL (3rd passing/4th rushing), so that alone could keep this game close.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's be clear, I absolutely HATE this pick.  I really, really, really want to pick Tampa Bay here, because let's face it, Tampa is better!!!  But, Tampa Bay is on a short week, and a home dog in an intra-divisional game is always a smart choice.  Doesn't feel right here, but I will go with it and not try to overthink it, especially since defensively the team ranks are pretty similar.

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is giving points after an ultra-emotional unrealistic comeback win (33 points in the 4th quarter!!!) over the New York Giants.  There just HAS to be some type of letdown.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is just ridiculous enough to happen!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes Pittsburgh is in first in the AFC North, but I think that is more about Mike Tomlin than anything else, as the team was a bit exposed against the Bengals last week.  They do have some extra rest, but I expect Green Bay to win this by 10.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

This pick seems really disrespectful to the Commanders, but the Chiefs have won all 4 of their games by over 13 points (4-1 in their last 5 after an 0-2 start), and the Commanders will be playing without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.  I will roll the dice with two double-digit favorite picks.  Maybe one of them hits.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

This is a lot of points to give-up for a Big Bet, but I really do think the Dolphins have given up.  Plus, my other thoughts are all on the road (Green Bay, Cleveland, and Dallas).

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 49-59

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,115) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 7

 

In short, I have no idea what is going on this year, and neither do you!  That is all.  That is the preamble for this week.  I got nothing!  I will say that I am just going to stick to the betting rules and see what happens for a couple of weeks.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Yeah, this will be fun.  Taking the team with the worst offense and the second to worst defense in Cincinnati.  Literally 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense.  But then again, Pittsburgh is 30th in offense and 27th in defense.  So, maybe this isn't awful taking a home underdog in an intra-divisional game and the home team on a short week - especially since it is the same team.  Go Joe Flacco, I guess?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams (in London)

There are a whole lot of Londoners that probably believe Blake Bortles should be in the Hall of Fame, as the Jaguars always play great in their adopted home city.  Matthew Stafford is playing great this year - top 3 in the MVP right now for me - but both teams score about the same amount of points (23.3 for Rams and 23.2 for Jacksonville), so I will take the points.  Also note, underdogs have done really well overseas this year, not just against the spread.

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Hey, they Bears have won 2 consecutive games 25-24, so they have the ability to keep the games close.  And, both of those were on the road.  But, they are on a short week and Spencer Rattler is showing some signs of life as a starting NFL quarterback.  Bears win, but maybe this time 24-20?

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game feels like it should be 6 1/2 points, especially since we have no earthly idea how the Titans are going to react to the Brian Callahan firing.  This could actually fire up the players.  But, the Patriots are in first place in the division, and they have to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs given the state of the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This pick is all about defense:  Miami's is 30th in Total Defense (20th in Pass Defense; 32nd in Rush Defense; and 29th in Scoring Defense), whereas Cleveland's is 2nd in Total Defense (7th in Pass Defense; 3rd in Rush Defense and 21st in Scoring Defense).  Loser of this game loses its coach!

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at New York Jets

Carolina is 3-3 and on a 2-game winning streak.  The Jets are winless.  Carolina is doing this with defense (7th in Total Defense and 9th against the rush), which could help against the lone bright spot for the Jets - its 5th-ranked rushing offense.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I like Minnesota a lot better with Carson Wentz than with J.J. McCarthy, especially behind the 6th ranked defense (5th in scoring).  Philadelphia is a good team, but nowhere near as good as their reputation as the defending champion.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are rounding into form.  A double-digit favorite against a division rival form, probably not, but what the hell.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. New York Giants

Once again, it is defense as Denver is 4th in Total Defense, 6th in Rushing Defense, 4th in Passing Defense, and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Nick Bonitto for MVP!

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I'll admit it; I am late to the Indianapolis Colts train, and I still might not be there.  And, I am a big fan of the Chargers' potential this year.  BUT, the Colts are a ridiculously balanced offensive team (5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards), and score the most points in the league.  And, although the defense isn't great, it is the 4th stingiest to score upon, even if they do give up yards.  So, the I will take the fact that they are getting points here.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Listen, I DO NOT LIKE THIS BET.  But, the Commanders are on a short week and the Cowboys are at home getting points to an intra-divisional opponent.  I'll take them.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

After starting off 2-0 (against the Saints and Panthers mind you) the Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak.  I expect that to continue as this Cardinals team is not good.  The Packers didn't look great last week, but they won handily, and I expect them to do the same here.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Fred Warner hurts this squad - literally and figuratively - but I expect San Francisco to rally just like they have all year in replacing almost everybody to injury at some point already.  Plus, Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Detroit Lions

First off, this is way too many points the way the Buccaneers have been playing.  This should be about a 2 1/2 point line.  So, I will take the extra 3 points.  And, Tampa's offense is humming behind Baker Mayfield (7th in passing and 6th in scoring.  And, the 5th-rated rush defense could potentially hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check.  I expect this game to be fun to watch, and close.  When it's close, I will gladly take points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

I am doing it.  Seattle at home on Monday night.  Crowd should be electric.  I'll take it.

Last Week Record:  5-10

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  40-53

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($765)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($2,505) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 6

An actual .500 week percentage-wise, but lost the Big Bet, as a number of HUGE upsets occurred, and six teams rallied from double-digit deficits to win outright.  This hurt me in some (See New England Patriots) and helped me in others (See Carolina Panthers).  Either way, super-weird year this year as neither Kansas City nor Baltimore are on track to make the playoffs, and Baltimore is in SERIOUS trouble   And, teams like Jacksonville and Seattle are having banner starts to their seasons.  Like I said, weird.  Might need to start varying away from the traditional gambling rules - who knows.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Other than their records and the fact that Philadelphia is the defending-Super Bowl Champion, nothing about the stats say Philadelphia.  The Giants offense is better (20th to 30th - including the fact that the Giants are 13th in rushing offense and the Eagles with Saquon are 25th!), AND the Giants defense is marginally better (27th to 30th).    But, the Eagles score (12th in scoring, and are moderate in scoring defense (16th), and this pick violates two gambling rules - never give points on the road in an intra-divisional game and always pick the home team on a short week.  So, perhaps this will hit.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 over New York Jets (in London)

With the travel in London, and with the understanding that weird things happen in the overseas games, I was looking for something, anything, upon which I could take the points in this game.  The best thing the Jets have going for them is that they are the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL.  BUT, the Broncos are 5th best in defending the run and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Denver it is, hopefully by a lot.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals now-starting running back Michael Carter averages 2.74 yards per carry.  Indianapolis' offense is cruising, with the 4th best Total Offense, 4th best Passing Offense, and 2nd highest Scoring Offense.  Its 3rd best Scoring Defense doesn't hurt either!

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

No official word on if Lamar Jackson will play or not, but he is likely out.  Better chance that Kyle Hamilton plays.  I hate taking Pacific teams in the 1:00 slot when they play in the Eastern time zone, but this is the week to flip-the-script, especially with the second-best Total offense in the league (Rams) going against the 31st-ranked Total Defense (Ravens).

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland's defense is 2nd in the NFL in Total Defense, 4th in Passing Defense and is the best team in the NFL in stopping the run. Quinshon Judkins has added a much-needed jolt to the rushing game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in a bell-cow roll, with the team getting a jolt from Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford when they spell Judkins (6.2 and 11.2 yards per carry respectively).  Yes, the Steelers are 301 and in first place in the AFC North and are clearly more talented overall than the Browns.  And, they have won 8 straight games coming off a bye - which is the case this week.  So, they should win this game, but does a 21-17 game seem about right?  It does to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams are probably the most (positively) surprising teams in the NFL, and are both poised to make a run for the playoffs this year.  Sam Darnold leading Seattle's fifth-ranked passing offense is surprising, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout is not.  Liam Cohen's best decision was to trade Tank Bigsby - not because he isn't talented but because there is now no confusion as to who the number 1 running back is (Trevor Etienne, if you don't know), and the Jaguars offense has clearly rallied behind him as they are 5th in the NFL in rushing, with Etienne being 4th in individual rushing.  For this game, I am going with the tried-and-true axiom of taking the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot versus a Pacific Time Zone opponent, even though Jacksonville is on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Going against the betting rules here even though the Chargers have lost Najee Harris (previously) and now Omarion Hampton from their offensive backfield because the defense gives up the 6th least amount of points in the league, and more importantly BECAUSE THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ARE THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE RIGHT NOW!!!  I am surprised that Mike McDaniel survived last weekend's collapse against the Carolina Panthers with his job intact.

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This was a very difficult pick to make.  Yes, the Patriots are coming off a stunning victory over the Buffalo Bills, but New Orleans somewhat righted itself offensively last week - granted it WAS against the New York Giants.  Drake Maye is spreading the ball around and playing at a high level.  New England maybe starts a roll toward the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is all about taking points.  Both teams are 1-4, and Las Vegas looks a little better than Tennessee, but neither team scores a lot of point (14.6 per for Tennesse; 16.6 per for Las Vegas (31st and 30th in the NFL respectively), and neither team stops the other teams from scoring, giving up 28.2 per game for Tennessee (26th) and 27.8 per game for Las Vegas (25th).  Given those numbers, I'll take the points.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Really good matchup between two 4-1 first place teams, that are pretty evenly matched.  Offenses are comparable, as are the defenses.  Both have momentum, as the Niners upset the Rams last week and the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks.  Really nothing that I can put my finger on here other than just taking the home team in what the linemakers think is basically a toss-up as well.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, I know that Green Bay is monumentally better than Cincinnati, but, the Bengals are still NFL players, and 14 1/2 is a LOT of points.  That's it.  That's my reasoning.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are on a disappointing short week, after squandering the game against what is starting to look like a really good Jacksonville Jaguars team on Monday night.  Detroit scores in bunches (34.8 points per game - tops in the league).  Kansas City is relatively pedestrian offensively for a team that has Patrick Mahomes, although it is possible that Tyquan Thornton is developing into a great accompaniment to Xavier Worthy as a weapon.  Detroit getting the points and scoring a lot of points.

Washington Commanders -4 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Yes Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears offense is much improved, and yes they are on a 2-game winning streak, and yes, they basically had that game against Washington last year with inferior talent to this year's squad before the Hail Mary, but Washington looked really, really good against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in their 27-10 win, and that leads me to believe they will handle the Bears at home on Monday night.  A positive for Bears fans, Ben Johnson has never lost a game as head coach coming off a bye week.

Atlanta Falcons +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be angry after losing last week to the New England Patriots, but Atlanta is a tougher out than you would think given that they are 2-0 and lost 30-0 to Carolina.  Even with that drubbing, they are the best team in the NFL in Total Defense (1st in Passing Defense/16th in Rushing Defense) and 16th in Third Down Defense.  They are also 6th in Total Offense (6th against the run).  Should be able to at least keep this close, although I expect the Bills to win.  Plus, Atlanta is coming off a bye.

Byes:  Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

I really wanted to take the Commanders here, but this just seems like the biggest mismatch on the board.  Dak Prescott has a 101.1 rating on the season and Bryce Young has a 79.5.   Javonte Williams is third in the NFL in rushing with 447 yards and second in rushing touchdowns.  George Pickens is second in TD receptions.  Too much firepower.

Last Week Record:  7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  35-43

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,740) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 5

This season has been abysmal.  I am just going to go ahead and blame all of the injuries, but truly it is that I have not been paying as much attention as I need to do.  In fact, I am in a confidence league and I am also doing worse than I have ever picked in that league too.  Got to turn it around, so going to really make sure I give it my all this week.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Ordinarily this spread would be much closer, as the NFL's 4th-ranked offense (Rams) challenges the 3rd-ranked defense (49ers).  But, San Francisco is just missing too many players, and it is a short week.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 against Minnesota Vikings (in London)

The jet lag for the Browns could really be a problem, as Minnesota played in Dublin last week.  But, Cleveland has the number 1 total defense in the NFL (4th against the pass and 1st against the rush), Quinshon Judkins could feast on the 25ht-ranked run defense, and maybe they get a boost from Dillon Gabriel's first start, much as the Giants did with Dart's first start last week.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at New York Jets

The Jets looked putrid last week at the Dolphins, and that was on Monday night, making this a short week for the Jets.  Cowboys have the 5th highest scoring offense, and the best passing and total offense in the NFL.  Now, there are a lot of injuries for the Cowboys, so this line has moved from -2 1/2 to +1.  I'll take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Philadelphia put together its best performance of the season last week against Tampa Bay, and they get the Broncos coming off a late Monday night game.  Denver's offense is starting to click, but this is going to be a tough combo of playing the Eagles and off a short week, so I'll give the points.

Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about this pick makes any sense, I know.  Lamar Jackson is doubtful at this time, so Cooper Rush will likely get the start.  Rush has had some quality starts in the NFL, so he won't be rattled - even though Houston's defense - especially its pass rush - can be scary.  But, the Ravens NEED this win in order to keep moving toward the playoffs and desperate teams sometimes play desperately.  And that is easy to do when you have Derrick Henry, who should get 25 touches this game.   But then, I see that the worst defense in the NFL will now be missing Kyle Hamilton, so I switched my pick.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

So the Jaxson Dart start was amazing last week - in terms of the Giants win.  But, he didn't play that great (he played fine, great for a first start).  But the injuries continue to mount as the Giants lost Malik Nabers for the season.  Of more concern should be the 29th-ranked rush defense in trying to stop Alvin Kamara, who is likely auditioning for a trade with a playoff-contender.

Las Vegas Raiders +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This might be the game where the Colts come back down to earth, unless everybody was completely wrong about Daniel Jones and it was the team - and not him - that was the problem in New York.  Colts may very well score enough points to win this game (they are 4th in scoring offense), but the Raiders may be learning how to use Ashton Jeanty enough to keep this under a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins are on a short week, and lost Tyreek Hill for the season (although they may have discovered Malik Washington as an actual offensive weapon).  Carolina is bad, but they actually give up less points than the Dolphins on the season.  If only they could find a QB or a RB.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

I am taking the Buccaneers on the chance that Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving actually play (which is NOT a given).  But that being said, Teddy Bridgewater is a solid back-up and Richaad White has run well in his opportunities so far this year.  I think with more than a field goal, this is a solid pick regardless of Mayfield and Irving's status.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

So Arizona is without its top two backs in James Conner and Trey Benson.  Won't matter as this Titans team is giving up 30 points per game and is last in the NFL in scoring.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Chargers are REALLY good this year.  Their defense is 4th in Total Defense and 4th in Scoring Defense and the offense is 7th in Total Offense (5th in Passing Offense).  Jayden Daniels returns, and that should be a spark for the Commanders, but they just aren't going to have enough to win this on the road.

Detroit Lions -10 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were drubbed by the Broncos on Monday night, and although double digits are a lot of points to give up in the NFL, this is a short week for Cincinnati.  Detroit has scored the most points in the NFL.

New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills should win this game, especially with the 2nd-ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the NFL.  But, Drake Maye is legitimate, and perhaps Trayveon Henderson can live up to some of h is preseason hype against the 31st ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo goes to 5-0, but the Patriots keep it close.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

This goes against every fiber of my being picking a team on the road giving up points as my Big Bet, but that thumping of the Ravens last week (and yes, I get it a lot of Ravens went down with injuries) showed me something, and that something coincided with the return of Xavier Worthy and Chris Jones.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-36

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-3

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,505) 

NFL Quarter-Season Review

 

As anyone who knows us knows - we are huge NFL fans here at We Make It Rain. And like any good NFL fans, we watch more than our share of games every year. This year is no exception. Since we have all of this NFL knowledge just seething to get out of our craniums, I thought that I would resurrect an old feature from way-back in the day - the quarter-season review.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season. 

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (4-0)

The class of this division, most likely the conference, and possibly even the NFL at this point.  Josh Allen starting off on a repeat-MVP type of season, and James Cook back to his old touchdown-scoring self.  And the defense is stepping up, as it is the stoutest defense against the pass and 9th in Total Defense,

New England Patriots (2-2)

A surprisingly spry start for the Patriots who have definitely found their quarterback in Drake Maye.  They will lose some that they shouldn't as the running game is lacking (26th), but they will win some they shouldn't as their rush defense is strong (2nd).

Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Lots of holes on this team as they are 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  And, they just lost Tyreek Hill for the season.

New York Jets (0-4)

Just dreadful.  At least Justin Fields will make some plays exciting as he is funning for his life.  This team IS somehow 3rd in the NFL in rushing, which ain't nothing.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Doing this with smoke-and-mirrors and an ayuhuasca-addled Aaron Rodgers.  The Steelers are 29th in Total Offense and 28th in Total Defense, yet they are 3-1.  I do not expect them to stay high in the Power Rankings all year, but Mike Tomlin might actually be the best coach in NFL history.  He has done more with less than any other coach.  Please note that I am not saying that he has never had talent, but even when he doesn't have a lot of talent, his teams are still good.

Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Starting off 2-0 with Joe Burrow is way different than finishing at least the majority of the season without him.  The fact that the defense is 29th in total defense doesn't help matters, either.

Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

Easily the best 1-3 team of all time with their losses to the Bills/Lions/Chiefs - but they are still only 1-3.  The trepidatiously await the results of Lamar Jackson's MRI today.

Cleveland Browns (1-3)

time to give Dillon Gabriel a chance.  And if that doesn't work, Shadeur Sanders.  And look to trade Myles Garret to get a haul of picks in the next two to three years.  This year is O-V-E-R.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Maybe New York/New Jersey was the problem and not Daniel Jones.  The Colts have the 3rd overall offense in the NFL (4th passing?!) and have scored the 4th-highest amount of points.  The defense is less stout than usual (17th overall) but is T8th against the run.  And, they have Jonthan Taylor and Nick Cross who are among the NFL's best at their positions, and the emerging star Tyler Warren.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

One of the surprises of the year - at least to me - and their one loss was prior to Joe Burrow's injury in Cincinnati.  Travis Etienne is leading a rushing group that is 4th in the NFL, keeping the time of possession in the Jags' favor, and the rush defense is also 4th in the league.

Houston Texans (1-3)

So disappointing.  We may have seen the best of C.J. Stroud (23rd in Passing Offense).  Defense is tough, as they lead the league in Scoring Defense and are 7th in Total Defense.

Tennessee Titans (0-4)

Worst team in the league, but on the bright side, Cam Ward looks like he belongs!

AFC WEST

Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are balanced on both sides of the ball (7th in Total Offense and 4th in Total Defense), and could make a deep run in the playoffs.  However, they have lost both tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and that could ultimately spell their downfall this season.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

They started off 0-2 with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, but boy what a difference Xavier Worthy makes.  The Chiefs offense was humming in this week's victory over the Ravens, scoring 37.  And what a difference Chris Jones makes, as his return also coincided with the Chiefs defeat of the Ravens.  Will be scary for the rest of the year (Stop me if you have heard this before!)

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Losses to the Colts (by 1) and Chargers (by 3) are not bad losses by any stretch of the imagination, especially since Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton seem to be on the same page these last two weeks.  That could be dangerous to the rest of the league, as Denver is already 5th in the NFL in Rushing Offense.  The defense, led by Nick Bonitto is T2 in Scoring Defense and T3 in third-down percentage defense.

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)

They may have an emerging star at running back in Ashton Jeanty, but Geno Smith is nowhere near his Seattle-level of play.  Defense isn't helping matters as they are 20th in Total Defense despite Maxx Crosby's stellar play.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)

At 4-0, clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they are undefeated despite have the 30th ranked Total Offense in the league and the 22nd ranked Total Defense.  Sound victory over Tampa this weekend shows that they just might be better than the stats show - or they could revert to the mean.

Washington Commanders (2-2)

A way different team with Jayden Daniels injured, but the second-best rushing offense using a multitude of running backs can at least keep you in every game.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1_

At times they have looked awful (a 31-14 loss to the Bears and a 3-point victory over the Giants), and then they come out of nowhere and tie the Green Bay Packers 40-40.  Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing, and is spreading the ball around in the wake of losing CeeDee Lamb for a bit to injury.  Defense is atrocious though - last in the league in Total Defense and 31st in Scoring Defense.

New York Giants (1-3)

The plusses are that they are finally starting Jaxson Dart and have played gritty.  The negative is that Malik Nabers is lost for the year.

.

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions (3-1)

A two-touchdown loss to the Packers in week 1 is the only blemish in an otherwise stellar resume.  The lead the NFL in scoring, and are 8th in Total Offense, while maintaining a respectable 13th-rankin in Total Defense.  They will be a team to reckon with in the playoffs, and a likely NFC Championship game participant barring injuries.

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)

The Packers started off as literally the best team in the league in the first two weeks.  Then, a 13-10 loss to Cleveland and a 40-40 tie against Dallas.  Has the league figured out Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur?  They do boast the 6th best Total Defense (2nd against the rush) and the offense is ranked 9th, but have they lost some luster?

Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

J.J. McCarthy is hurt, but it seems the offense might be better without him.  The Bears let them off the hook in week 1, and the Vikes other win was a thrashing of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team.  They are 3rd against the pass defensively, but their 22nd Total Offense ranking leaves a lot to be desired.  Could go either way this season.

Chicago Bears (2-2)

They definitely look much better this year, and Caleb Williams is well on his way to setting team single-season records for yards and touchdowns.  The rushing game needs to improve (24th) as does the rushing defense (32nd) to make any real noise, but the improvement is there.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Tampa Bay has played fantastic, despite having been cut-down by injuries.  They have been led by the defense which is 5th in Total Defense, and Rush Defense, while the offense is middle-of-the-pack.  The one dangerous sign is that each of their three wins has been on last-minute drives by Baker Mayfield.  The good thing is that they know they can win last-minute drives!

Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

The fact that Atlanta is only 2-2 is fascinating.  They are like the anti-Eagles, in that all of their stats say "Undefeated!"  They have the 6th ranked Total Offense (9th in passing and 7th in rushing) ANZD the 2nd ranked Total Defense (including 2nd against the pass).  One of the losses was a 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the lowly Carolina Panthers.

Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Really, really bad, and except for the 30-0 blowout of the Falcons, one could say that they are horrible and that the Bryce Young pick was a waste.

New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Easily the bottom-dweller of the NFC.  Only stats you need to know:  28th in scoring and 30th in scoring defense.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

Surprisingly spry considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  All of the time these backups have been playing is only going to make them deeper and more dangerous as the year progresses.  The Fred Warner-led defense is 3rd in Total Defense, and 7th in Scoring Defense.  The offense, that even lost Brock Purdy for a couple of games, is 2nd in Passing Offense and 5th in Total Offense.

Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams have been fantastic besides, even though two of their wins are against the Texans and Titans.  They are 4th in Total Offense and 10th in Total Defense, without any real contribution in the pass game outside of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Seattle is a surprising 3-1, but we forget that Sam Darnold is a more than serviceable regular season quarterback.  The team is 6th in Scoring Offense and Tied for 2nd in Scoring Defense.  That will win you a lot of games.  Plus, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an Offensive Player of the Year type of year.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Arizona is an unusual 202, as they rank 28th in Total Offense and 23rd in Total Defense.  Kyler Murray is going to stunt Marvin Harrison, Jr.'s growth - and potential stardom.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Buffalo Bills 4-0

2.  Philadelphia Eagles 4-0

3.  Los Angeles Chargers 3-1

4.  Detroit Lions 3-1

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

6.  San Francisco 49ers

7.  Los Angeles Rams 3-1

8  Indianapolis Colts 3-1

9.  Seattle Seahawks 3-1

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1

11.  Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

12.  Green Bay Packers 2-1-1

13.  Kansas City Chiefs 2-2

14.  Denver Broncos 2-2

15.  Washington Commanders 2-2

16.  New England Patriots 2-2

17.  Minnesota Vikings 2-2

18.  Chicago Bears 2-2

19.  Atlanta Falcons 2-2

20.  Arizona Cardinals 2-2

21.  Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

22. Dallas Cowboys 1-2-1

23.  Baltimore Ravens 1-3

24.  Houston Texans 1-3

25.  Las Vegas Raiders 1-3

26.  New York Giants 1-3

27.  Miami Dolphins 1-3

28.  Cleveland Browns 1-3

29.  Carolina Panthers 1-3

30.  New York Jets 0-4

31.  New Orleans Saints 0-4

32.  Tennessee Titans 0-4

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Defensive MVP - Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - Week 4

 

I need to stop travelling, as it is obviously impacting my pics.  Also out-of-town this weekend, but hopefully we can turn this season around, as last week was horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hated this pick (for good reason), but home team on a short week and I hate taking road intra-divisional favorites.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)

A bad offense (28th) and great defense (6th) in Minnesota versus a horrible offense (30th) AND defense (29th) in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

More than 2 touchdowns?  Just a bit too much for my blood to give up.

Tennessee Titans -+7 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am doing this strictly for the points, but I am concerned that maybe this is what Houston needs to right itself after a bad year plus.  Still taking Tennessee - again just for take the points.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions

When is Cleveland going to give Dillon Gabriel a try?  Should be soon.  But, taking them here because Quinshon Judkins could be great, and because Detroit played Monday night.

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I feel that defensive coordinators have figured out Michael Penix, Jr.  Atlanta's defense is legit so far this year (2nd overall and 1st in pass defense), but Marcos Mariota is a proven veteran.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

Neither of these teams are good, and New England is better at passing the eye test (especially at QB), but 5 1/2 points?  I'll take them.

New York Giants +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This may seem unorthodox, but hear me out here:  First, maybe the Giants get a bit of a jolt from Jaxson Dart; and second, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east to play in the 1:00 window.  I will take the Giants, reluctantly.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Ben Johnson got a taste of winning last week, and although this will not be easy with 3 more starters out for the Bears, most of their playmakers on offense will be there, plus the get a look at rookie Ozzy Trapilo on the offensive line replacing Darnell Wright.  Despite a 1-2 start, Chicago is 9th in scoring offense, and 4th in third-down conversions.  That should be enough.

 

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy returns.  That has to be enough to put the Niners over the top.  Especially after starting 3-0.  Can they go 4-0?  I think they win outright.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Colts are a surprise 3-0, for sure, but unlike Philly their stats back it up.  Number 1 total offense (4th passing/3rd rushing) and number 5 total defens (8th passing/7th rushing).  They may not get to 4-0, but they very well should cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about the way they have played this year tells me that KC can keep this close, except that Baltimore has the 31st total defense (31st passing and 30th rushing), and they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

The talent differential in this game is enormous.  And we saw last week is that Dallas is BAD!

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

This game is just awful.  Horrible.  Give me points.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am super-leery of giving up more than a touchdown, but Cincy has the worst total offense in the NFL (27th in passing and 32nd in rushing), AND their defense stinks.  Denver, despite being 1-2, may have started to click this season despite losses the last two weeks.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

I looked at Chicago (on the road and too many injuries), Green Bay (giving up too many points), and Washington Commanders.  I am going to take the Buccaneers to win outright on the road, although the 3 1/2 points looks pretty good.

Last Week Record:  5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  21-27

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-2

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($875)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,050)